KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 463.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 246.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1685.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:00 AM ET. February Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 413.425M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.597M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 246.011M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.468M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.104M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.574M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.83M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.653M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
12:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as investors weighed an announcement by President Joe Biden that the U.S. will ban Russian imports of oil and energy. Fears of a recession triggered by concerns over the economic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine have prompted investors to jettison stocks and stockpile safe-haven assets in recent days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. A resumption of the decline off February's high could lead to a retest of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22 is possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,102.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 34,179.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,102.02. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 14,391.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 14,391.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,855.24. First support is February's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 4418.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4418.75. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 4484.50. First support is February's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.
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June T-bonds closed down 2-05/32's at 157-20.
June T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 162-12. First support is 20-day moving average crossing at 155-09. Second support is February's low crossing at 151-29.
June T-notes closed down 225-pts. at 127.130.
June T-notes closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.247 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.247. Second support is the February 10th low crossing at 125.145.
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May crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $126.41. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.60.
May heating oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday and posted another new all-time high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2242 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.1900. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2242. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9621.
May unleaded gas close higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9816 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.8075. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1720. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9816.
May Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.361 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 5.199 would renew this year's rally while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.199. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.361. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.182.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.77 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $99.43. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.77.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.37. First support is Monday's low crossing at 108.07. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2893 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3442 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3318. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3442. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3081. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2893.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday and below February's low crossing at 1.0764. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below February's low crossing at 1.0764 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 1.0715. Closes above February's high crossing at 1.0935 would mark an upside breakout of February's trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term.First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is the January's low crossing at 1.0715.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday and posted a downside breakout of the January-March trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 71.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 79.45. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is today's low crossing at 77.51. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 24th high crossing at 0.087425 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at 0.087425. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.086380. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.084932.
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April gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday and spiked above the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the 2020 high crossing at $2117.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1904.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00. Second resistance is the 2020 high crossing at $2117.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1944.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1904.90.
May silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off December's low and spiked above the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 26.956. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 28.134 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.451 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 26.956. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 28.134. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.215. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.451.
May copper closed slightly higher on Tuesday on a wild wide swinging day. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5865 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside target will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.0395. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6340. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5865.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $7.53.
May corn closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above broken weekly resistance crossing at $7.43 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May corn extends the rally off last-September's low, psychological resistance crossing at $8.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.17 1/4 would temper this year's rally. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.17 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82 3/4.
May wheat closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $12.86 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Tuesday on a day with almost a $2.00 trading range. The modestly higher range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $12.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.36 1/2. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $12.09. Second support is last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.34.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.52-cents at $11.99 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 2008-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.50 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 2008-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.50 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.61.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.53 1/2-cents at $11.44.
May Minneapolis wheat posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.12 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.69 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.12 1/4.
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May soybeans closed up $0.30 1/4-cents at $16.89 3/4
May soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.23. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.
May soybean meal closed up $14.60 at $473.30.
May soybean meal closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $427.10.
May soybean oil closed up 153 pts. at 75.75.
May soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.72. Second support is the February 9th low crossing at 62.81.
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April hogs closed up $2.65 at $102.92.
April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.85 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at $105.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $107.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at $98.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.85.
April cattle closed up $1.15 at $139.05
April cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $132.46 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $140.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $133.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $132.46.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.05 at $160.73.
April feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $152.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $161.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $154.27. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $152.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it bounces off support marked by the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 22.25. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 24.54 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 20.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!