Unless the situation changes and my info is correct

Grain prices will increase more as the yr progresses

Russia has said no more exports of fertilizer and grain for 2022

Ukraine has said no exports of grain for 2022 as domestic requirements will use all available supplies 

Grain export water terminals are damaged and mined which will take time for operations to resume once hostilities cease. This will happen when???

Given that Russia and Ukraine together export 25 % of world grain exports

That should result in a world bidding war for available grain supplies until somebody is priced out of the market

Have some been priced out as of now or will prices increase until somebody is priced out of the grain market

SA will have less for export reducing available  world supplies even more for 2022/23

The only major supplier is NA exports

A producer that hasn't sold as of now is probably in a situation to hold grain off the market waiting for higher prices given increase cost to produce in both 2022 and 2023. That is just how some producers market their grain

2023 looks to be the yr when input supplies are short and input prices will be very high 

The pendulum turns to the ability for the world to produce given reduced input supply chain  mal function

I think grain buyers will bid higher  prices later in 2022

I am holding 60 % of old crop and all of new crop unpriced

My cash price is 9.00 plus for old crop and 8.00 plus for new crop

A new combine and heads cost 1 million CAD

 A new tractor cost 500,000 to 1 million CAD We pay what ever the asking price is for fertilizer as supply is more important than price and no supply. We have bought and applied or stored some fertilizer but our needs are huge compared to supply and cost

Makes 8 and 9 price seem insignificant

There are no more new tractors and combines available for 2022 and most of 2023 locally. Now you know about the supply chain problems affecting all ag  production

Our input cost for 2023 are expected to increase by a factor of 3x's. compared to 2021 Machinery is more than 3x's depending on your base line cost factor. A chip mal function may mean a machine can not start or run or  perform functions necessary for operations, if the chip board is unavailable. This includes some machines 10 yrs or older, which have chip boards which is a large amount of current working inventory machinery required to plant and harvest. Our 10 yr old combine is loaded with many chips, any one which could mal function

 Corn price has not increased by a factor of 3x's

Given what could go wrong in production and current world supplies, I think prices will be bid higher, until some body has no more money

And you wonder why china has 70 % of the world corn inventory and huge amounts of other grain in storage. I think my numbers are correct, but china is prepared for food supply mal function

You may think differently