KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 17, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 16.0)
Prices Paid (previous 69.3)
Employment (previous 32.3)
New Orders (previous 14.2)
Prices Received (previous 49.8)
Delivery Times (previous 23.0)
Inventories (previous 4.0)
Shipments (previous 13.4)
8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.638M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -4.1%)
Building Permits (previous 1.899M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 227K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1494000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2166.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3099.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 370.2K)
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1519B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -124B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, March 18, 2022
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 6.5M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.6)
Median Price (USD) (previous 350300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.4%)
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.6)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off the March 8th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,561.60 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If the Dow renews decline off February's high, a retest of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22 is possible. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 34,179.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,617.24. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Closes above the March 3rd high crossing at 14,389.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 14,389.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,503.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12,941.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday following Tuesday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above last-Friday's high crossing at 4326.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 4410.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4431.46. First support is February's low crossing at 4094.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92.
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June T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 152-03.
June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 155-29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155-29. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 160-12. First support is today's low crossing at 150-27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 150-06.
June T-notes closed down 80 pts. at 124.130.
June T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.049 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126.108. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.049. First support is today's low crossing at 123.255. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.
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May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If May extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.57 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.57. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.41.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.83. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $86.47.
May heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7699 extends this month's decline. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3625 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3256. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7699. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $2.5518.
May unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7941 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2599 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2599. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.8075. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7942. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $2.6898.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 5.199 are needed to renew this year's rally while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the March 1st low crossing at 4.361 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 5.199. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 4.361. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.309.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $99.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $97.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.62.
The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.51. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.90. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The June British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3297 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3117. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3297. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2997. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894.
The June Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0846 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0789. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0846. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564. Second support is last-March's low crossing at 1.0415.
The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 77.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 79.44. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 77.51. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.19.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower for the eighth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.086900 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086000. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.086506. First support is today's low crossing at 0.084120. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1869.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1972.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1939.90. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1972.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1869.90. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $1845.40.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.087 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.733 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.733. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.956. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at 23.125.
May copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off Monday's high, the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6683 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6683. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.0395. First support is the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470. Second support is the February 8th low crossing at 4.3995.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down $0.28-cents at $7.30.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.28 3/4 would temper this year's rally. If May corn renews the rally off last-September's low, psychological resistance crossing at $8.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.28 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.14.
May wheat closed down $0.85-cents at $10.69 1/4.
May wheat closed limit down on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.63 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.63 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.51 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.85-cents at $10.72 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed limit down on Wednesday. The limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.29 1/4. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 2008-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 2008-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $10.35 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.29 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed limit down at $10.50 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed limit down on Wednesday. The limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.49 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.49 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.09 1/2-cents at $16.69 1/2
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.50 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target.First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.50 3/4. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.
May soybean meal closed down $6.00 at $478.00.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 2nd low crossing at $443.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $491.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the March 2nd low crossing at $443.10. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80.
May soybean oil closed down 13 pts. at 73.55.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.56. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at 68.22.
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April hogs closed down $0.23 at $102.17.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 4th gap crossing at $105.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at $107.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $98.47. Second support is the January 28th low crossing at $93.62.
April cattle closed down $1.53 at $139.25
April cattle posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $132.46 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.56. First support is March's low crossing at $133.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $132.46.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.13 at $162.73.
April feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $152.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $167.10. First support is March's low crossing at $154.27. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $152.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, March's low crossing at 24.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, November's high crossing at 20.29 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the March 1st high crossing at 123.31 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!