New, very impressive storm!
19 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:45 p.m.

Tracking the weather system. 

Hold on to your hats and anchor your flimsy outdoor furniture down!!

High wind warnings likely with this one as winds gust to 50 mph....... WITHOUT thunderstorms!

The next 3 maps update several times/hour:


Surface Pressure/Wind (Incredible winds are developing)

Temp/DP/Wind-Surface observations

Temp/Wind/DP/pressure below (holy cow, look at the temperature gradient)

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:45 p.m.
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Latest National radar images

Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg



By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:46 p.m.
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    This link below provides some great data. Hit the center of the box below for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations.





By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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Weather map now.

In 24 hours and

In 48 hours.

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available


By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:51 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated at least daily.  

Severe storms/tornadoes possible, especially in orange/red but also in yellow.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:52 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat(low threat).

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:54 p.m.
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By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:57 p.m.
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Here's the forecast from the snow/ice forecasting experts!

WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 2:59 p.m.
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Total snow the next 3 days from the GFS ensemble mean just updated:

Weather Model

By madmechanic - March 29, 2022, 9:55 p.m.
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Would be interesting to see the storm data/graphics for the storm that rolled through central California starting late Sunday night and continuing all day Monday. Just form personal observation, we had a decent amount of rain fall, lightning and thunder, and even some hail.

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 10:34 p.m.
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Thanks mm!

This is the same storm energy reforming east of the Rockies!

By metmike - March 30, 2022, 12:04 p.m.
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Hazards map below. Brown is wind. 

By metmike - March 30, 2022, 12:09 p.m.
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Severe Storms Forecast Center:

Evansville risk in the "enhanced threat"

See this verbiage at the link above:

 Day 1 Convective Outlook     NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   1056 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022    Valid 301630Z - 311200Z    ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN/EASTERN   LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...    ...SUMMARY...   A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected from the   Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee   Valleys today, and over portions of the central Gulf Coast states   later today into tonight.  The greatest concerns are tornadoes (some   strong, EF2+) and widespread damaging wind gusts (some to hurricane   force).    ...Lower OH/MS Valleys...   Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough   rotating across TX/OK.  This trough will become negatively-tilted   this afternoon and evening as an associated 90+ kt mid-level jet   moves into the lower MS Valley.  The result will be rapid   intensification of thunderstorms over AR/LA that spread rapidly   eastward into portions of IL/KY/TN/MS later today.  Low-level wind   fields are also expected to intensify rapidly ahead of the line,   resulting in very favorable shear profiles for supercells and/or   bow/lewp structures along the squall line.  Widespread damaging   winds are possible across these areas, with the risk of several   tornadoes (some strong) as well.    As the storms move eastward into central KY/middle TN they will   track into a progressively more unfavorable thermodynamic   environment.  This should result in a slow weakening of the damaging   wind threat along the line.  However, at least some risk of damaging   winds may persist as far east as eastern KY/TN tonight.    ...Southern MS/Southwest AL/Western FL Panhandle...   The aforementioned squall line will track eastward across MS/LA and   into AL by early evening, with a continued risk of widespread   damaging winds.  Convective intensity may decrease during the   evening across northern AL, but greater low-level moisture farther   south should allow the storms to remain potentially severe through   much of the night.  Meanwhile, low-level shear profiles will remain   quite strong and capable of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the   strongest cells.

By metmike - March 30, 2022, 12:14 p.m.
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By metmike - March 30, 2022, 12:20 p.m.
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By metmike - March 30, 2022, 6:37 p.m.
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This is what the 500mb map looks like(about the mid point in the atmosphere(not half the distance but half of the mass of the atmosphere)) . Wind speeds are in knots. 5 knots = 6 mph.

This is around 18,000 feet above the surface,  over 3.5 miles up.

The speed max approaching the severe storm risk area is what helps to enhance the higher potential of severity and produce rotation/spin for tornadoes.

By metmike - March 30, 2022, 6:50 p.m.
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Here's a look at winds a bit higher up, at 200mb and the jet stream level.  This is around 39,000 feet up or over 7 miles above the surface. It can range from 35,000 to 41,000 feet above the ground.

The tiny 130 knot speed max's in the pink are over 150 mph. The stronger jet stream to the south is why the risk for tornadoes is higher there(moderate).

the air ahead of and below strong jet streams is lifted and can become very unstable. As that air rises and cools, water vapor condenses out because cooler air has less capacity to hold moisture.

By metmike - March 30, 2022, 7:05 p.m.
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For those that want to learn more about this, I strongly recommend Jeff Haby's tutorials!

Select A Tutorial Below or Scroll Down   




By metmike - April 1, 2022, 11:07 p.m.
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220330_rpts Reports Graphic