The title of this thread is not meant to be confrontational nor accusational, I just couldn't think of a better title so I just used the title of the article.
The article in question can be found here, Mike I figure you will enjoy reading this and I would be interested in your thoughts.
-MadMechanic
Thanks MM!
Some interesting INDEPENDENT thinking.
I disagree with him a bit about CO2. The greenhouse affect of warming from CO2 is real.
But they've doubled the real amount in climate model equations. We know and they know(any modeler would have to know) with absolute certainty what that amount is from accurate measurements with the empirical data and we know with certainty that the models are doubling that amount.
But they refuse to adjust the models to the science. Proof that it's politics and not science. The models exist to push an anti fossil fuel agenda.
Profound: Smoking Guns!! Proof with accurate 2 decade long measurement of the actual amount of radiative forcing caused by CO2 of 1 irrefutable reason for WHY global climate models continue to be too warm. Climate emergency is really about social justice and brainwashing people. Even MORE confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming. Models clearly too warm yet incredibly programmed to get even HOTTER! Now, even more confirmation why the models are too warm. August 2020 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57636/
Busted Climate models: Global climate models are completely busted! Showing how REALLY wrong they've been but get adjusted......even hotter to scare more people, not for science. Massive data and observations from the real planet vs the speculative, computer simulated one based on a busted theory. China and developing country emission increases will DWARF our cuts. Happy(sad) Earth Day. April 2021
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68079/
Here's a good discussion on how the oceans enhance global warming at times and suppress it at other times.
Explanation about 60 year PDO cycle which affects planet warming El Ninos and planet cooling La Nina's.
If temperatures were accelerating higher, as we are constantly told, then we should be seeing the oceans having an accelerating trend higher too that matches all that extra heat.
But it's not happening.
Extremely long article below but has many good points:
The tide gauge measured data outcomes addressed in this NOAA 1854 to 2006 study and other WUWT posts noted above clearly indicate that the 2022 Global Mean Sea Level Rise study claims of tide gauge data measurements showing sea level rise acceleration occurring since 1970 are exaggerated and unsupported at numerous global locations with these acceleration claims more likely being an artifact of the studies analysis methodology (use of models) and not representative of real world tide gauge measurement trends.
The 2022 Global Sea Level Rise study “extrapolations” and “trajectories” used for assessing sea level rise during the 30-year period between 2020 and 2050 rely upon speculative and methodologically inadequate and uncertain claims of accelerating tide gauge measurements that are not supported by other well established global tide gauge data analysis. These inadequacies result in flawed claims of higher rates of global sea level rise during this 2020 to 2050 period asserted in the latest year 2022 GMSL study.
Hi Mike,
Thanks for taking the time as always to read and respond.
I've re-read this particular post a couple times myself. While it does seem like David is completely dismissing CO2 as having no warming effect, he actually says this later in the post:
"The vast majority of the greenhouse effect comes from water vapor, which is driven by the oceans. A much smaller effect comes from naturally occurring greenhouse gases. A much much smaller effect may be added by the extra parts per million of CO2 in the upper troposphere. That effect may or may not be measurable in the oceans. Changes in ocean heat drive climate."
Based on this, I don't think he is throwing CO2 or the greenhouse effect out completely, what he is trying to get at is that the oceans, by virtue of being very large bodies of water which take vast amounts of radiative energy to warm over LONG periods of time, are the primary drivers of what we refer to as climate.
I do appreciate this statement of his:
"The oceans have been moving water around the globe for a long time, and our climate has varied dramatically as a result. The system is highly nonlinear. To say that man’s influence started in any particular year or can be seen in today’s climate is to create a mechanism that does not exist in reality."
To me, this last statement in bold goes back to a thought that I've had for some time now. I recall reading sometime in the last few years that a climate studies group/organization (I actually think it's the IPCC but I haven't gone back to check) has defined 'climate' based on a 30 year period. This is the first time in world history studies when climate study was based on 30 year periods. Or to put it another way, the first time that it is being declared that the global climate changes within average human lifespan.
And yet, in all other points in history, we talk about the climate based on thousand or million year time scales.
Thanks mm!
I know what you are saying about climate and the 30 year period.
I think that's always been the definition but in the past, we always thought of it as being based on much longer periods......which actually are MUCH more reliable.
The world is hyper focused on rapid climate change and uses the minimal period possible to track it.
The PDO is an ocean oscillator based on the temperature profile of the Pacific ocean that repeats around every 60 years-we think(30 years +PDO, then 30 years -PDO) periodicity
One could ask, "Is the PDO changing the climate every 30 years, then changing it back, the next 30 years and so on?"
No, it's part of the climate that can only be understood by looking at climate at a longer time frame than 30 years. 60 years minimum but we haven't been able to measure the PDO accurately for long enough to really know if 60 years is correct.
Another good point is that the oceans can store something like 1,000 times more heat than the atmosphere can.
When more heat goes in vs more coming out of the oceans(with La Nina/El Nino, for instance) it can change the air temperature of the planet by several tenths of a degree in a year.
The PDO operates based on the same principle over a much longer time frame.
https://scholarsandrogues.com/2013/05/09/csfe-heat-capacity-air-ocean/
Ocean Heat
The land is surrounded by these oceans, that as you mentioned, also contribute almost all the H2O to the air that keeps our planet from acting like the moon. Extremely hot where the sun shines. Extremely cold on the dark side.
The oceans control an enormous amount of the climate on the entire planet.
It's very enjoyable having a conversation with one of the few people that understand the authentic science and can use independent, critical thinking by applying their understanding of scientific principles to discern the truth.........vs being told what to think because highly educated but extremely biased scientists control most of the constantly repeated messages/narratives of broken climate science. ....which has been MISinformation on steroids the past 2 decades.