NG Thu: down sharply
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Started by WxFollower - Dec. 7, 2017, 11:25 a.m.

NG is down sharply on bearish wx forecasts , especially in the 11-15. Mike, do you agree? 

Also, the EIA was bearish vs expectations.

By WxFollower - Dec. 7, 2017, 4:14 p.m.
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Hey Mike,

 There's no question that the models are warmer today vs yesterday for the 2 week period overall, which tells me that today's big drop makes perfect sense.

 However, to show you that even I pay attention to the late 2 week period, I am noticing on the 12Z ensemble runs a potential change. Even the normally warmer EPS has at 12Z a reappearing Alaskan ridge accompanied by a strengthening and impressive surface high (strong signal for so far out in time on an ensemble with 50 members) along with much colder air in western Canada. So, this potentially could mean a return to a solidly cold pattern after only a pretty shortlived break. I will reiterate that I realize that that far out is quite unreliable and models that far out will likely waver somewhat for the next few days. But I do at least find this to be interesting.

 Your thoughts?