KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -88.2B; previous -89.7B)
Exports (USD) (previous 224.4B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Imports (USD) (previous 314.1B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
9:45 AM ET. March US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 58.9; previous 56.5)
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 58.0; previous 56.5)
Business Activity Idx (previous 55.1)
Prices Idx (previous 83.1)
Employment Idx (previous 48.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 56.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Wednesday, April 6, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 425.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1295.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -14.9%)
10:00 AM ET. March Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. February Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 409.95M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.449M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 238.828M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.785M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 113.53M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.395M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.874M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.25M)
11:00 AM ET. March Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.9)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
Thursday, April 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 202K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +14K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1307000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -35K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 923.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1359.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 176.3K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1415B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +26B)
12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. February Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.3B; previous +6.8B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 8, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Monday, April 11, 2022
N/A G24 Committee of the Whole meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as US halts Russian bond payments. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,393.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 14,725.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,393.40.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4439.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4501.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4439.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-22. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.
June T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.162. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.198. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was higher overnight as the United States and Europe planned new sanctions to punish Russia over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, raising concerns over tighter global oil supply. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.42 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off the March 24th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.25. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20.
May heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the March 24th high crossing at $3.8570 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off the March 24th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0714 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.8570. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0714.
May unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off the March 24th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0127 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.0309. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0127.
May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.196 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.893. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.574. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.196.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the March 8th high crossing at $99.47 is the next upside target. An upside breakout of the March-April trading range would renew the rally off February's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of March-April trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.36.
The June Euro was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $109.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at $108.46. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.98 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of April. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.98. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $114.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $109.77. Second support is March's low crossing at $108.46.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, March's low crossing at 1.2994 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365 is the next upside target.First resistance is the38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2994.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0772 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1.0972 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, last-October's high crossing at $81.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at $80.55. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at $81.14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.90.
The June Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that a sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083319 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.081871. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083319. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 24th high crossing at $1967.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1901.10 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $1967.20. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Third resistance is March's high crossing at $2082.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1901.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1832.80.
May silver was higher overnight and the high-range trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.265 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.458 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.458. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $23.125.
May copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5979.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2 would confirm a downside breakout of the March-April trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.97 1/4. First resistance is March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.97 1/4.
May wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.58 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.58 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat gapped up and was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish from an oversold position signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.80 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.69 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.69.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23 would mark a possible upside breakout of March's trading range and would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $16.83 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $15.76 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-Friday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $427.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $494.70. First support is the 25% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $450.40. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.45 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.26. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.85 at $99.45.
April hogs closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the March 18th low crossing at $99.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $103.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $108.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is the March 18th low crossing at $99.22. Second support is the March 7th low crossing at $98.47.
April cattle closed down $0.65 at $138.00
April cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the decline off last-Tuesday's low, the March 10th low crossing at $135.82. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $141.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $141.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.99. First support is today's low crossing at $136.95. Second support is March's low crossing at $133.50.
April Feeder cattle closed up $3.20 at $158.37.
April feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high, The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the March 23rd low crossing at $158.85 signals that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the March 29th high crossing at $165.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 29th high crossing at $165.00. Second resistance is the February 24th gap crossing at $167.72. First support is the March 10th low crossing at $156.05. Second support is March's low crossing at $154.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.35 is the next upside target. If May renew the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, March's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 18.84 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.49.
May cotton closed higher on Monday as it appears to be forming a small bull flag. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.00 would confirm that a top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!