KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 202K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +14K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1307000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -35K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 923.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1359.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 176.3K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1415B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +26B)
12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. February Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.3B; previous +6.8B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 8, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Monday, April 11, 2022
N/A G24 Committee of the Whole meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday's as investors pondered over Fed remarks and news of additional sanctions against Russia. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,410.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 35,372.26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,410.07. Second support is the March 8th low crossing at 32,578.73.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,420.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,262.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,420.04. Second support minor support crossing at 14,040.00.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's key reversal down while extending the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4447.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4447.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4409.71.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
June T-bonds closed down 1-00/32's at 145-13.
June T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high.The Federal Reserve indicated that it will likely increase U.S. interest rates by a 1/2-point at upcoming meetings if inflation remains high or gets even worse, according to minute of the central bank's last strategy session in March. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-01. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-14. First support is today's low crossing at 144-24. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.
June T-notes closed down 65 pts. at 120.230.
June T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.059 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.059. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.147. First support is today's low crossing at 120.055. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and has renewed the decline off the March 24th high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. Multiple closes the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.48 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at $92.20. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $108.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.41. First support is today's low crossing at $96.22. Second support is March's low crossing at $92.20.
May heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off the March 24th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0863 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 3.8570. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0863.
May unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0211 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 2.8633. If May rebounds off the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7823, the March 24th high crossing at 3.4727 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.8075. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0211. Second support is March's low crossing at 2.8633.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.280 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.394. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.670. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.280.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and extended Tuesday's breakout above March's high crossing at $99.47 as it renewed the rally off 2021's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of March's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.43. First resistance is today's high crossing at $99.79. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.43.
The June Euro closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the aforementioned decline continues, March's low crossing at $108.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.88 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into early-April. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.88. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $114.87. First support is March's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The June British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, March's low crossing at 1.2997 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3042. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2997.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0765 signals that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the March 28th low crossing at 1.0694 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0857 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 31st high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is the March 28th low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, last-October's high crossing at 81.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 80.61. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 81.14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.91.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083014 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.082595. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083014. First support is March's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If April renews the rally off March's low, the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50 is the next upside target. Closes below March's low crossing at $1888.30 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2078.80. First support is March's low crossing at $1888.30. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $1845.40.
May silver closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the March 29th low crossing at 24.045 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.183 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 27.495. First support is the March 29th low crossing at 24.045. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at 23.125.
May copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.6027.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at $7.56 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday while extending the March-April trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2 would mark a downside breakout of March's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $7.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.00.
May wheat closed down $0.07-cents at $10.38 1/4.
May wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.69 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews to decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.62 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.62 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.2 1/4-cents at $10.85.
May Kansas City wheat posted an inside day and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.79 on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $11.08 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off the March 29th low, March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 29th low crossing at $10.19 1/2 would mark a resumption of the decline off March's high. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is the March 29th low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at $16.19 1/2.
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.60 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4. First resistance March's high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $15.76 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4.
May soybean meal closed down $4.10 at $461.50.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $474.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $448.10. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80.
May soybean oil closed down 59 pts. at 71.83.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 68.84. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $0.35 at $114.70.
June hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the February 28th low crossing at $109.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.58. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.90. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $111.94. Second support is March's low crossing at $109.15.
June cattle closed up $0.90 at $134.20
June cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off the March 29th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 29th high, March's low crossing at $130.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.30. Second resistance is the March 29th high crossing at $138.53. First support is the March 10th low crossing at $132.15. Second support is March's low crossing at $130.97.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.95 at $159.95.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off the March 29th high, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $156.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $165.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 29th high crossing at $165.00. Second resistance is the February 24th gap crossing at $167.72. First support is today's low crossing at $157.70. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $156.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, March's low crossing at 24.53 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, March's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 18.84 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.54.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it continues to form a small bull flag. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.89 would confirm that a top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!