KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 11, 2022
N/A G24 Committee of the Whole meeting
Tuesday, April 12, 2022
6:00 AM ET. March NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 95.7)
8:30 AM ET. March CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7.9%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
8:30 AM ET. March Real Earnings
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.3%)
10:00 AM ET. April IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 33.9)
2:00 PM ET. March Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)
Wednesday, April 13, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 398.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 258.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1166.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.9%)
8:30 AM ET. March PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)
9:00 AM ET. G24 Deputies Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 412.371M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.421M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.787M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.041M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.301M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.771M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.815M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.059M)
Thursday, April 14, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims, Net Chg
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims, Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. March Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +1.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +8.1%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 59.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 54.4)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 67.8)
10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +1.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -11.8)
Employment Idx (previous 14.5)
New Orders Idx (previous -11.2)
Prices Received (previous 56.1)
9:15 AM ET. March Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. March State Employment and Unemployment
4:00 PM ET. February Treasury International Capital Data
N/A U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday
N/A Emancipation Day observed in Washington, DC
N/A Marianas: Good FridayFriday, April 8, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,335.27 as it extends the decline off March's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,335.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,763.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,335.27. Second support is minor support crossing at 13,881.29.
The June S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4417.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4531.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4417.55. Second support is the reaction high crossing at 4326.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off December's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-19. First support is the overnight low crossing at 142-07. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.
June T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.116 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.116. Second resistance the March 31st high crossing at 123.040. First support is the overnight low crossing at 119.170. Second support is the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.19. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off the March 24th high, the March 15th low crossing at $92.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $108.75. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $116.64. First support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $86.47.
May heating oil was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off the March 24th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1293 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.6167 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.6167. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.8570. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.1891. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1293.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at $2.8633 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 30th high crossing at $3.3076 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $3.3076. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.4727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0484. Second support is March's low crossing at $2.8633.
May Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.521 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 6.538. Second resistance is the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.521.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally to a new contract high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.84 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. Second resistance is the April-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $101.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.84. Second support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the March 31st high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 31st high, March's low crossing at $108.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.70. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at $112.16. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $108.63. Second support is March's low crossing at $108.46.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight following last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 23rd high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3119 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3119. Second resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at 1.3294. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2979. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the March 31st high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 1.0609 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0827 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0793. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0827. First support is the March 28th low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $80.61. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at $81.14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.96. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $78.69.
The June Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, March's low the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.082248 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.082248. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.084994. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.079790. Second support is the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 24th high crossing at $1972.50 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the March 29th low crossing at $1893.20 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $1972.50. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1979.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1914.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1887.90.
May silver was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.036 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below March's low crossing at $24.045 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is March's low crossing at $24.045. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $23.749.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.6420 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is reaction low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.6205.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extended this year's rally to a new contract high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, minor resistance crossing at $7.76 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is minor resistance crossing at $7.76 1/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.31 1/2. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the March 22nd high crossing at $11.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.39 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.64. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.41 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the March 15th high crossing at $11.49 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.86 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.49 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.59. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.86 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.45 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.39. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.26 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at $17.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.32 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $16.97 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $17.36 1/2. First support is April's low crossing at $15.76 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $427.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $494.70. First support is the 25% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $450.40. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the March 24th high crossing at $76.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.01. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10.
Thanks much tallpine!
KW weather still mega bullish! Crop rating this afternoon will be horrible for the HRW, maybe even worse than last week in the S. Plains.
NG seasonals and low storage very bullish.
Cold and wet(east) bearish for beans(late planting/more beans vs corn)