grains seasonal patterns
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Started by bear - April 23, 2022, 2:52 p.m.

other than the obvious trends of planting or harvest,  my father-in-law (who farmed) always said that grains have a 4 year cycle because of presidential cycles.  people involved in farming might think that farm policy might change with a new president.  (i am not sure if this is true,  but that was his view).  

can any of you farmers confirm this idea? 

By metmike - April 24, 2022, 9:25 a.m.
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Thanks bear,

Not a farmer but I can comment on the 4 year grain seasonal cycle because of presidential elections.

It doesn't exist!!!

Here is one huge reason:

Trump was in office 4 years, but the previous 3 presidents were in office 8 years and 4 of the previous 5 were in office 8 years. 

No, there is no 8 year grain seasonal cycle. Going back another 5 presidents, NONE of them were in office for 8 years and 4 of the 5, were NOT in office 4 years.

So, out of the last 11 presidents, only 3 were in office for 4 years. Trump, Bush-1 and Carter. 

Going back farther, the previous 3 presidents were in office, 8, 8 and 12 years, which gets us back to the previous 4 term president, Herbert Hoover 1929-1933.

So, since 1933, 89 years ago, we've only had 3 presidents that were in office for 4 years.

Timeline of all the U.S. presidents

With regards to Biden's length in office. The question is whether he can make it long enough to be another 4 year president. 

By metmike - April 24, 2022, 9:37 a.m.
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Speaking of seasonals a more reliable (historically around 90% reliable) is the yearly seasonal for grains.

Here's a wonderful recent discussion. 

Seasonal Grain Price Patterns

Grain price seasonality in the U.S. generally results in low grain prices during the fall harvest period due to abundant supply.  The uncertainty of early summer tends to allow plenty of price fluctuation and volatility, which usually causes grain prices to reach their annual high levels.  Grain prices follow a seasonal pattern as depicted by graph A from Chad Hart, Iowa State University Outreach and Extension.

Graph A: Seasonal Pricing Patterns. Data source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2018


As Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension Economist, noted in his market outlook presentation at the beginning of 2021 and in graph B, the price patterns in 2020 followed the one in ten-year pattern of increasing as harvest time began. “The global pandemic (COVID-19) caused a market disruption in March through May, reducing prices of most agricultural commodities. Expanding drought and a weakening US dollar caused prices of corn and soybeans to increase. A weak US dollar makes US exports cheaper to other countries and can increase the amount of commodities we export. Dry conditions in South America reduced the size of the South American crops, adding strength to US prices. As South America began their harvest, US soy prices dropped slightly in this graph. The last time we had a marketing year with this price pattern was 2012, a year of drought conditions in the US.”

Graph B: Seasonal 2020 Prices. Data Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 2020-2021
By metmike - April 24, 2022, 11:31 a.m.
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List of cognitive biases:

The Cognitive Bias That Destroys Your Ability to Correctly Predict the Future

The future may look familiar, but that's probably an illusion.

By metmike - April 24, 2022, 11:56 a.m.
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There's another key element to seasonal patterns.


When you have a fairly reliable seasonal pattern for many years, thousands of traders will EXPECT/ANTICIPATE it and their actions, based on those expectations will reinforce it and sometimes, even cause it!

This also applies to technical trading.


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