other than the obvious trends of planting or harvest, my father-in-law (who farmed) always said that grains have a 4 year cycle because of presidential cycles. people involved in farming might think that farm policy might change with a new president. (i am not sure if this is true, but that was his view).
can any of you farmers confirm this idea?
Not a farmer but I can comment on the 4 year grain seasonal cycle because of presidential elections.
It doesn't exist!!!
Here is one huge reason:
Trump was in office 4 years, but the previous 3 presidents were in office 8 years and 4 of the previous 5 were in office 8 years.
No, there is no 8 year grain seasonal cycle. Going back another 5 presidents, NONE of them were in office for 8 years and 4 of the 5, were NOT in office 4 years.
So, out of the last 11 presidents, only 3 were in office for 4 years. Trump, Bush-1 and Carter.
Going back farther, the previous 3 presidents were in office, 8, 8 and 12 years, which gets us back to the previous 4 term president, Herbert Hoover 1929-1933.
So, since 1933, 89 years ago, we've only had 3 presidents that were in office for 4 years.
With regards to Biden's length in office. The question is whether he can make it long enough to be another 4 year president.
Speaking of seasonals a more reliable (historically around 90% reliable) is the yearly seasonal for grains.
Here's a wonderful recent discussion.
Grain price seasonality in the U.S. generally results in low grain prices during the fall harvest period due to abundant supply. The uncertainty of early summer tends to allow plenty of price fluctuation and volatility, which usually causes grain prices to reach their annual high levels. Grain prices follow a seasonal pattern as depicted by graph A from Chad Hart, Iowa State University Outreach and Extension.
List of cognitive biases:
There's another key element to seasonal patterns.
SELF FULFILLING PROPHESY!
When you have a fairly reliable seasonal pattern for many years, thousands of traders will EXPECT/ANTICIPATE it and their actions, based on those expectations will reinforce it and sometimes, even cause it!
This also applies to technical trading.
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