Weather-UPDATED LINKS
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Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

Recent rain amounts:

weathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

+++++++++++++++

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    

New radar product below          

 https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NC45OCwzNy4wMl0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo0fSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++NY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
 Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.htmlConus Radar Very High Resolution


Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Comments
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
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1. Weather map now.

2. In 24 hours and

3. In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126





By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  Day 3 outlook

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              

                                 

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 4 Static Image
                                              


                      

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 5 Static Image
                                              

                        


               

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                          


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Updated daily below:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/mtd_cen/month.pperc.png

DROUGHT EXPANDING in October but rain is on the way:

NEW LINK:
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions


DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

November 5 below: Drought reduction in many places from S.Plains to Western Cornbelt!

October 22 below:

Oct 8 below: Drought expanding, Plains/Upper Midwest!!!
Karen Braun@kannbwx

Dryness has spread in the central USA over the last eight weeks. Some 66% of the Midwest (the most since mid-March) is now abnormally dry versus 13% in mid-July. Not sure that this has a huge impact on crop yields from here, but it is something to monitor.

Image






Last map is from July 3, 2024

AS ON JUNE 26, 2024 below. FLASH DROUGHT! ECB and CCB. But some areas to get relief!


Last week as of June 17, 2024-FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CORNBELT BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORNBELT!!!


2 weeks earlier:


As of March 12, 2024: Drought in IA


January 30, 2024 below




DECEMBER 12, 2023 below


NOVEMBER 14, 2023




October 17, 2023      



August, 2023, BELOW

April 18, 2023-1 year ago:


DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022-After a long lived La Nina-BEFORE EL NINO wiped out much of the drought OUT WEST the Winter of 2022/23!









         Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!

Image

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
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Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m

         

EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
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Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly    

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php


Great discussion below:

Soil Temperature and Corn Emergence

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/soil_temp_corn_emergence.html

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

Precip below..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.png

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:29 p.m.
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@CraigSolberg

Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)

ImageImage

By metmike - March 10, 2023, 1:05 a.m.
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More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Drought Monitor for conus


On the other side, that contradicts the truth,  those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.


‘Unrivaled’ Storm Threatens California With Floods

Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/us/california-weather-rain-storm-flood.html


By metmike - March 23, 2023, 1:14 p.m.
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Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.

This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!

Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?

That doesn't sell!

This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the drought....is over!

Climate change INCREASES precip!

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


                                    

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:18 p.m.
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https://graphs.water-data.com/ucsnowpack/

Snowpack is 150.19% of the May 1st average.

By metmike - May 4, 2023, 9:44 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.

This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast. 

There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably. 

Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get. 

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/about/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freese-Notis

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2023, 2:36 p.m.
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Over 1,000 severe storm reports yesterday/8-7-23

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98002/#98044

This is incredible for August which is NOT severe weather season!!!  Just 1 weak tornado in KS.


Yesterday's Storm Reports (20230807 1200 UTC - 20230808 1159 UTC) (Print Version)      

        < 230806 Reports                 230808 Reports >      
Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 9, 2023, 1:44 p.m.
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As long as the NAO stays this positive, cold air will find it very difficult to penetrate very far south and to stay very long!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

++++++++++++++++++

Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-north-atlantic-oscillation


By metmike - Dec. 25, 2023, 12:28 a.m.
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                Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan             

                            Started by WxFollower - Dec. 20, 2023, 9:19 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/

            


By metmike - Dec. 28, 2023, 10:21 a.m.
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Although the models were milder overnight, the Greenland block type anomaly in 2 weeks suggests a very solid cold air connection by mid January.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101515


Supporting that is the NEGATIVE AO and NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101471

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2024, 11:06 a.m.
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The much colder outlook described in late December continues to play out in the forecast:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100525/#101558

                Snow event 1-6-2024                        

                Started by metmike - Jan. 2, 2024, 1:21 p.m.    

        https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101595/

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2024, 9:05 a.m.
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We're focusing on the specific metrics of the extreme weather in this pattern here:

               

 Winter Storms/COLD week of 1-7-24+            

                            Started by metmike - Jan. 7, 2024, 9:57 p.m.    

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101628/

 

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2024, 4:06 a.m.
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                Millions in California face historic rain            

                            Started by metmike - Feb. 5, 2024, 5:04 p.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/#102176

Outside of the fairly localized extreme event in the high population, Los Angeles area almost a week ago, these  atmospheric river events from the Natural El Nino have blessed California with wonderful beneficial rains.

Most places will gladly take a bit more of the exact same events(absent the tiny % of area with the extreme rains) with only a very tiny reservoir close to capacity. 

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain

+++++++++++++

By metmike - March 22, 2024, 2:04 p.m.
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                Early planting issues 3-20-24            

                            12 responses |               

                Started by metmike - March 20, 2024, 12:22 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102729/

By metmike - March 31, 2024, 11:23 a.m.
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Tracking an early April snowstorm in the Northeast:

                Historic -NAO intensity coming Mar 31 through early April            

                            Started by WxFollower - March 29, 2024, 4:41 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102861/

By metmike - April 4, 2024, 2:48 a.m.
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                Stormy weather April 1-5, 2024           

                            14 responses |      

                Started by metmike - April 1, 2024, 6:34 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102905/

By metmike - April 8, 2024, 11:07 a.m.
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                       Total Solar Eclipse Day-April 8, 2024!!

                            16 responses |           

                                            Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 3:38 p.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102975/

By metmike - April 17, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
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                Severe wx week of 4-14-24                      

                                           Started by metmike - April 13, 2024, 1:26 p.m.  

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103145/

By metmike - April 29, 2024, 2:39 p.m.
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Bumping to the top. MarketForum now has lighting loading time speeds!

By metmike - April 29, 2024, 3:06 p.m.
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                Re: Re: UAH March-global temperature                                                    

                By metmike - April 14, 2024, 3:01 p.m.            

                                        

Temperatures this past Winter:

90 day periods-going backward

1. Jan-Feb-Mar

2. Dec-Jan-Feb

3. Nov-Dec-Jan

++++++++++

30 day periods-going forward

4. Nov 2023

5. Dec 2023

6. Jan 2024-only month to feature major cold

7. Feb 2024

8. March 2024


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


90 day periods


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

30 day periods







By metmike - May 6, 2024, 12:58 p.m.
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Severe weather May 6-7, 2024+

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103789/


UPDATED:

                Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024            

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103838/


By metmike - May 8, 2024, 1:34 p.m.
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Weather Effects on Expected
Corn and Soybean Yields

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/36651/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=884.4

By Jim_M - May 13, 2024, 2:33 p.m.
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It took almost a week for me to get to my lawn because the rain never seems to stop.  My grass looks good though.  I noticed a couple brave farmers were out working some wet (small) fields

By metmike - May 13, 2024, 4:56 p.m.
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Thanks, Jim!

Ohio was actually the state farthest AHEAD of the average corn planting pace:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103397/#103985

By 12345 - June 1, 2024, 11:52 a.m.
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I WATCHED A FEW VIDEOS ON YT. THE 10 DAY FORECASTS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER.  SOME NASTY WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST

By metmike - June 8, 2024, 2:23 p.m.
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Here come da HEAT, starting in the middle of next week! Afterwards, that will define the rest of the month with the intensity and location moving around. 

Rain amounts in some areas will be deficient and soil moisture, which is wonderful, almost everywhere will be drying up under the heat.

The 75% G/E first corn rating was a big factor for fund selling early in June!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104538

The next rest of June is going to start featuring heat with some areas drying up(especially the Eastern Cornbelt).......other areas will have enough rain to do well.......grow fast in the vegetative state with the heat accumulating Growing Degree Days for corn.

This was the last 12z GEFS run for total rains the next 384 hours.

Light blue is 2+ inches.

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 12, 2024, 7:01 p.m.
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Rains the next 2 weeks on the last 12z European model.

Wimpy in the Eastern Cornbelt, along with heat )-:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104857

By 12345 - June 12, 2024, 8:11 p.m.
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Flash Flood Emergency In South Florida

IN THE '70 ERA, WHILE I LIVING IN W.P.B. FL. ~ IT WAS A BIBLICAL RAIN EVENT.  IT RAINED EVERY DAY, FOR 40 DAYS.  THE ALLIGATORS WERE BEING TAKEN OFF THE HIGHWAYS... I HAD WALKING CATFISH IN MY CARPORT, BUT... THE SADDEST THING? THE CATTLE!!  THEY WERE STUCK IN THE PASTURES!!  SHARPSHOOTERS IN HELICOPTERS SHOT THEM... THERE WAS NO VIABLE WAY TO RESCUE THEM!  UGH!!

NATURE CAN BE HORRIDLY CRUEL

By metmike - June 13, 2024, 12:42 a.m.
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There they go again in blaming climate change again for this fake "1 in 1,000 year" event.

Almost 4 inches of rain in 1 hour. An all time record for the amount of rain in just an hour............FOR THIS CITY. 

Yes, that's a lot of rain and warmer global temperatures probably contributed at least +7% to that total but its not even close to a record for the United States.

Not even in the top 10. Probably in the top 100.

What is the Most Rain to Ever Fall in One Minute or One Hour?

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/what-is-the-most-rain-to-ever-fall-in-one-minute-or-one-hour.html

I'll start a new thread just on this tomorrow to show how absurd it is to call this a 1 in 1,000 year event.

++++++++++++

It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html

The GoldenRule

 Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:

The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.

Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.   

+++++++++++

These people cherry pick every extreme, as if there were no extremes in the past and tie them to climate change. 



Another 1 in 1,000 year rain
Started by metmike - April 14, 2023, 2:55 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94542/

By metmike - June 13, 2024, 8:08 p.m.
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FLASH DROUGHT COMING TO THE ECB AS I FEARED the last week+ and the NWS is picking up on.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

By metmike - June 17, 2024, 9:53 a.m.
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Bearish just over half the Cornbelt BULLISH the other half, ECB.

                Re: Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+            

                            By metmike - June 17, 2024, 9:51 a.m.         

            

By Jim_M - June 17, 2024, 10:25 a.m.
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Just my local 2 cents.  The lawns in NE Ohio went brown in a hurry.  Looking more like August instead of June.

By metmike - June 21, 2024, 9:47 a.m.
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Thanks, Jim!

Latest weather updates here:

                Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+                        

                By metmike - June 20, 2024, 1:31 p.m.     


       

                Re: Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+                        

                By metmike - June 21, 2024, 9:30 a.m.            

By metmike - June 23, 2024, 2:51 p.m.
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Rainfall the last 72 hours.

Sorry you barely missed, cutworm )-:

It especially hurts when a rain event completely falls apart at your doorstep.

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 4, 2024, 12:09 p.m.
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1.5 inches of wonderful rain here in southwest IN, yesterday evening!!



By metmike - July 6, 2024, 6 p.m.
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Beryl to enter the weather picture in the US early next week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/105227/#105460

By metmike - July 27, 2024, 10:33 a.m.
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On Friday, the heat backed up farther west and rain chances went up.

                Re: Re: Re: Grains July 15, 2024            

                            By metmike - July 26, 2024, 10:36 a.m.      

++++++++++++++

Here on Saturday morning, the models continue that trend:

      

By metmike - July 30, 2024, 9:42 a.m.
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                Re: Re: Grains July 15, 2024            

                            By metmike - July 30, 2024, 9:39 a.m.            

Rain makes grain in a July/early August forecast.

Total 2 week rains from the just updated 6z GEFS. Storm clusters riding southeast along the periphery of the heat ridge! Light blue is 2+ inches. Magenda is 3+ inches. This is even WETTER than yesterday, which was even wetter than the weekend which was even wetter than last week.

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2024, 2:14 p.m.
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Soon to be Hurricane Debby:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106248/

Preliminary Winter Forecast 2024 - 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lubAmvimx-g


metmike: La Nina Winter!

By metmike - Aug. 13, 2024, 8:33 p.m.
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It's late for growing season weather to impact crop prices and late for heat to impact natural gas demand for cooling. 

Of the 2, an intense heat wave in the high population areas of the East and South might have more potential but that is NOT the forecast.

By metmike - Aug. 16, 2024, 3:39 p.m.
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New site/link for you (thanks, Eric):


U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought

Agriculture Affected by Drought  for Aug 13, 2024                                                                        

Commodity
% Area Affected by Drought
Barley production35
Corn production6
Cotton production22
Durum Wheat production39
Peanut production2
Rice production2
Sorghum production36
Soybean production6
Spring Wheat production21
Sugarbeet production10
Sugarcane production0
Sunflower production7
Winter Wheat production43
By metmike - Aug. 20, 2024, 10:33 p.m.
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Crazy low dew points right now for August in this extremely dry air!


https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/


                  

By metmike - Aug. 21, 2024, 2:43 p.m.
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                Re: Re: Crop Tour            

           Thanks much, cutworm!

Yields WILL be dropping in the ECB and vicinity the next 2 weeks. This was total rain for the next 2 weeks from the just out 12 GEFS. Crop condition reports in early September will deteriorate a couple %, maybe a bit more. 

NOT good for the last few weeks of pod filling for beans.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

8-31-24

Great discussion on the impact of weather on the current soybean crop here:

                Beans                        

                48 responses |      

             Started by baker - Aug. 8, 2024, 7:36 p.m.          

  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106521/

By metmike - Aug. 31, 2024, 5:05 p.m.
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After 29 days of NO RAIN here in Evansville, watching a nice rain event unfold SOUTH of here this afternoon is painful!

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvwx/standard

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2024, 5:37 p.m.
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The NWS has rapid onset of drought in the 8-14 day outlook but we ALREADY HAVE A FLASH DROUGHT in southern IN!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

+++++++++++


Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2024, 12:44 p.m.
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Watching the Western GOM with HIGH  hopes that this system's robust tropical moisture can make it to the Ohio River towards the end of this work  week!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: AEW in E ATL could be next TC            

                            By metmike - Sept. 8, 2024, 11:05 a.m.            


7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126



By metmike - Sept. 9, 2024, 7:31 p.m.
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Yeah, baby! Here comes our first real rain in over 5 weeks!

The dew point here in Evansville, IN yesterday morning was 29 degrees. I've never seen it close to that low in early September in 4 decades of living here. Extraordinarily dry air mass and extraordinarily dry soils making it worse.

                Potential for HUGE extremely needed rain event!           

                Started by metmike - Sept. 9, 2024, 12:05 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107280/

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2024, 3:06 p.m.
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We got .7 inches total from Francine!

Much less than hoped for early in the week but close to the amount expected just before it hit.

Most of the rain along and south of the Ohio River was from Francine. Evansville in in dark blue, with 1+ inches in light green and 2+ inches i darker green.

.7" is much better than nothing!

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly

By metmike - Sept. 20, 2024, 11:47 a.m.
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New product that shows how depleted our soil moisture is.

100 cm = 39 inches =just over 3 feet down. Evansville is in the darkest shade of red. 

Basically, close to the lowest soil moisture ever in the top 3 feet. We can see how Francine greatly helped areas just barely south of us a week ago.

https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/nasa-sport-lis-soil-moisture-products

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2024, 3:40 p.m.
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Busy week with our weather and for SOME good reasons if you're in the path of some drought busting rains on the northern periphery of the rain shield. 

NOT along the Gulf Coast, however with EXTREME life threatening weather.

And many drought areas will see too much of a good thing too fast.


                Potential NW Caribbean/GOM TC formation next wk                        

                Started by WxFollower - Sept. 19, 2024, 2:16 a.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/

++++++++++++++


                Re: Re: Re: Re: Potential for HUGE extremely needed rain event!           

                            By metmike - Sept. 24, 2024, 3:35 p.m.            


By metmike - Sept. 30, 2024, 4:09 p.m.
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3.5 inches of rain here!
good thing because october is looking bone dry!

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2024, 1:13 a.m.
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No rain in sight thru 2 weeks.

By metmike - Oct. 9, 2024, 11:42 a.m.
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Warm forecasts for late October with zonal, DRY west to east flow. A decent shot of chilly air in the East for several days next week.

However, Milton is the big deal this week:

                Invest 92L SW Gulf: threat to W FL mid-week!            

                            Started by WxFollower - Oct. 5, 2024, 12:13 a.m.         

   https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107854/

By metmike - Oct. 13, 2024, 5:42 p.m.
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Cold shot this week, then much above normal temps in week 2 with rains increasing in the Plains:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

By metmike - Oct. 17, 2024, 1:59 p.m.
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Fire Weather Outlooks

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/

                    

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks (Product Info)
Current Fire Weather Outlooks (Product Info)
      Current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
      Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook         
            Forecaster: WEINMAN
Issued: 171657Z
Valid: 171700Z - 181200Z
Forecast Risk of Fire Weather: Critical Risk
Note: Critical Fire Weather Criteria document in      MS-Word or PDF.      
    
      Current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
      Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook         
            Forecaster: BENTLEY
Issued: 170653Z
Valid: 181200Z - 191200Z
Forecast Risk of Fire Weather: Elevated
Note: Critical Fire Weather Criteria document in      MS-Word or PDF.      
    
      Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
      Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Graphic.         
            Forecaster: WEINMAN
Issued: 162159Z
Valid: 18/1200Z-24/1200Z


+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Drought expanding in October:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - Oct. 18, 2024, 5:06 p.m.
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Low skill forecast: 1st half of November!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

By metmike - Oct. 23, 2024, 10:01 a.m.
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Increasing chances for rain coming up for drought areas but NOT a drought busting pattern change.

No signs of major cold, looking into mid November. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106573/#108195

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107127/#108194


By metmike - Oct. 25, 2024, 11:26 a.m.
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Rains boosted a bit on the last 6z GEFS for the next 384 hours but this is NOT drought busting. It looks like pattern after 2 weeks will go back to being dry.

                                    


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions




Great discussion on drought here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H24nQXsYG30

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2024, 11:39 p.m.
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Latest 2 week rains from the 18z GEFS. Some drought relief!


By metmike - Oct. 29, 2024, 3:48 p.m.
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2 week rains from the last 12z GEFS model! This will make a big dent in the drought for many areas!

By metmike - Nov. 1, 2024, 10:04 a.m.
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Rains have continued to increase in drought areas which will almost wipe out the drought in some spots. Just what the vegetation/crop doctor ordered.

Total 16 day amounts on this last 6Z GEFS. WOW!  This is NOT like most La Nina's!

By metmike - Nov. 1, 2024, 4:53 p.m.
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Low skill weeks 3 and 4 maps were updated today as they always are on Friday PM.

No sign of any cold yet, thru the month of November. NG prices tanked this week as a result.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


By metmike - Nov. 3, 2024, 3:42 p.m.
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This will be a drought buster for many areas!!

384 total rains from the last 12z GEFS below.

                                    


By metmike - Nov. 8, 2024, 3:02 p.m.
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Still more rains to come the next 2 weeks. Especially southern and Eastern Midwest. Also C/S Plains.


Drought has been greatly improving!!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - Nov. 8, 2024, 3:47 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 12, 2024, 10:44 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 20, 2024, 4:46 a.m.
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Bumping to the top.
Busy praying and singing hymns for my dad ahead of his soon to come death.