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Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

To see rain amounts, go here:

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.                                                                                                                 



New radar product below   

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++NY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
 Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast Radar Very High Resolution

Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links just go to the link!
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
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1. Weather map now.

2. In 24 hours and

3. In 48 hours.

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available


Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:


The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook




By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:



Lows days 3-7 below:


By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Extended weather.

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


Updated daily below:



October 17, 2023      



The severe drought in the Southwest to N. Plains was wiped out this year from the El Nino. 

         Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!


By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
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Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m







By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
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Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook


GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data).

TOO COLD to plant the rest of April. 

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

Precip below..

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 12:52 p.m.
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ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 10:15 p.m.
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I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:

By metmike - July 15, 2022, 3:03 a.m.
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Forecasters believe #LaNina conditions will stick around through the end of 2022, but an ENSO-neutral scenario could take over in early 2023. Something other than La Nina usually bodes better for crops in southern South America (esp. Argentina) and the southern U.S. Plains.


By metmike - July 21, 2022, 1:07 p.m.
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Just updated this morning.

This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.





By metmike - Sept. 8, 2022, 12:24 p.m.
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Latest hazards map at the top. Record setting heat wave out West is almost over.       

Hurricane Kay in the southwest US:

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:29 p.m.
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Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)


By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:36 p.m.
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HRW crop may be getting planted in the dust. Not good for optimal early development before going dormant ahead of the harsh Winter cold.

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2022, 6:42 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 10, 2022, 10:50 p.m.
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An extremely tight temp gradient develops in week 2 between extreme cold to the north and very balmy trying to return deep south.

Because of this, small changes are causing models to  flip flop, sometimes in extreme fashion. The 12z GFS was -4 HDDs bearish vs the 0Z run, which had been +9 HDDs bullish. The European model did the exact opposite. The last 12z run was an incredible +15 HDD's bullish after the previous 0z run was -8 HDDs bearish. 

Individual ensemble solutions have an extremely wide spread.

This is the bullish version of the pattern from the last operational 18z GFS.

1. Jet stream map

2. 850 mb temperature map

By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 10:07 a.m.
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We woke up to a surprise 3-4 inches of snow in southwest IN. I was not expecting that much.

I re mortared a ton of bricks on our steps and walkway on Wed/Thu and have them covered with black plastic, mainly to try to trap the ground heat and prevent a deep hard freeze that might cause moisture still in the partially cured  mortar to freeze up, expand and compromise the integrity of the bonding. 

I started sweeping off the snow, worried that it would melt and then refreeze to ice, then decided to leave it on to help insulate more.

Static map

By WxFollower - Nov. 27, 2022, 4:27 p.m.
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 Before you made this last post, I was already typing a first post in a new wx thread. So, I hadn't seen any of your post when I was putting mine together:

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2023, 2:27 a.m.
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Some extremely heavy precip in areas that need precip.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Drought monitor for December 27th below:

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2023, 11:41 p.m.
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Temperatures in January 2023

Extremely mild Eastern half.

Cold West.

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2023, 12:10 a.m.
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By metmike - Feb. 27, 2023, 1:01 p.m.
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By metmike - March 10, 2023, 1:05 a.m.
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More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.

Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.

Drought Monitor for conus

On the other side, that contradicts the truth,  those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.

‘Unrivaled’ Storm Threatens California With Floods

Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.

By metmike - March 21, 2023, 9:11 p.m.
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Total rains the next 2 weeks from 3-21-23 forecast.

Gray shade is 5+ inches!

Weather Model

La Nina dead!

By metmike - March 23, 2023, 1:14 p.m.
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Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.

This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!

Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?

That doesn't sell!

This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the over!

Climate change INCREASES precip!


By metmike - March 29, 2023, 11:45 p.m.
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Next severe weather outbreak!

By metmike - April 5, 2023, 12:37 a.m.
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New Severe Weather outbreak  4-4/5-2023

Not been very active so far.

By metmike - April 20, 2023, 11:04 a.m.
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Welcome rains coming the the S.Plains drought areas next week!

By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:15 p.m.
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Am puzzled why they increase drought in IA/MO with the current pattern looking wet:


       United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge

By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:18 p.m.
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Snowpack is 150.19% of the May 1st average.

By metmike - May 3, 2023, 1:15 p.m.
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BTW Jean,

I love that guy that you linked us with because of his enthusiasm and he was alot of wonderful stuff.

But he's a crappy weather forecaster in realms like the one he's using in this video because his objective is to sensationalize everything at the expense of NOT seeing dynamics which undercut that mission.

He insists that it will be dry in May in the places below that will receive alot of rain during just the next 2 weeks(6z GEFS 5-3-23). In fact, just the next week. His forecast for a dry May is already busting right after he released it!

This isn't just a difference in opinion. The model below might be too wet for the pattern but this guy is blowing the pattern recognition aspect of the forecast from being too closed minded with his focus on THE PRESENTATION and missing the forest because he's looking at a few impressive trees that lets him make a misleading video like this.

Put another way, he's using some solid principles about meteorology that apply to Omega Blocks, then embellishes and extrapolates and exaggerates to make an attention grabbing video which contrasts with ALL the model and expert forecasts using pattern recognition of THE BIGGER PICTURE. 

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

6z GEFS total precip 5-3-23

      This Is Going To Completely Change Our Weather…    


    Ryan Hall, Y'all


Again, I really like this guy for great weather information in many realms. Agricultural and energy weather forecasting would not be one of them or long range forecasting.

Short Term and current severe weather, YES!

By metmike - May 3, 2023, 1:19 p.m.
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El Nino/Summer weather forecast:

By metmike - May 4, 2023, 9:44 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.

This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast. 

There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably. 

Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get.

By metmike - May 21, 2023, 5:55 p.m.
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By metmike - May 25, 2023, 12:36 p.m.
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Latest on dry weather above:

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Over the last month, U.S. drought conditions eased in parts of the High Plains, incl. some of HRW #wheat country, but dryness has spread in the east, incl. Missouri & Illinois. However, #drought concerns are far from over in the western #Corn Belt.


By metmike - June 1, 2023, 3:36 p.m.
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Updated drought monitor.

Greatly expanding drought. Rains in June are now critical to prevent yield potential from eroding.

Drought Monitor for conus

By coffeeclotch - June 3, 2023, 10:04 a.m.
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Last weekend we trended wetter and then had a bloodbath Tuesday into early Wednesday.. And then we spent remainder week clawing back.. Even posting gains... Weekly reversals.  Interesting to see what unfolds

By metmike - June 3, 2023, 11:21 a.m.
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You're exactly right! Great account of what happened!

                5-28-23 WX turning LESS BULLISH!            

                            26 responses |    

                Started by metmike - May 28, 2023, 11:39 a.m.    


                Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions May 30, 2023    


Late in the week, the driest areas were in the ECB, best chance of rain, WCB. 

GEFS with almost 2 inches of rain in most places, European Ensemble around 1 inch.

The last couple of model runs have taken away rains in the WCB. Added some in the SE Cornbelt. 

As long as the EE has such skinny rains, half the average, I continue bullish.

Let's continue this discussion here:

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2023, 2:36 p.m.
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Over 1,000 severe storm reports yesterday/8-7-23

This is incredible for August which is NOT severe weather season!!!  Just 1 weak tornado in KS.

Yesterday's Storm Reports (20230807 1200 UTC - 20230808 1159 UTC) (Print Version)      

        < 230806 Reports                 230808 Reports >      
Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2023, 9:03 a.m.
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SUMMARY...   Multiple rounds of significant severe thunderstorms with tornadoes,   and damaging winds/hail are possible from the Ozarks to the   Tennessee Valley this afternoon into tonight.

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2023, 7:09 p.m.
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We need some rain in most places. Won't help crops but will help lawns/gardens and other natural vegetation and especially the Mississippi River level which is getting too low again, like it did last Fall.

By metmike - Sept. 16, 2023, 5:28 p.m.
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Rains really picking up now in the forecast (especially for the Plains/W.Corn belt)because of a huge pattern change-bearish Winter wheat, good for planting.


This has been the biggest weather deal the past 2 weeks:

Current Wind links:,-78.838,5,1

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:31 p.m.
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Updated long range forecasts:

Technical discussion:

Long range forecasts don't have a great deal of skill but the upcoming ones have elevated odds of verifying vs average because of the El Nino.

Here's the link to get all of them with the 3 month forecasts for N-D-J as well as D-J-F, then J-J-A 2024 copied below:




By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 24, 2023, 10:30 p.m.
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First BIG Winter storm of the season:

Total snow the next week:

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2023, 11:45 p.m.
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Look at this amazing temp contrast!

Current temperatures:

Total snow the next 3 days

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2023, 4:13 p.m.
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By 12345 - Oct. 31, 2023, 5:17 p.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 31, 2023, 11:51 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

Just updated today:

Updated OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: October 31, 2023
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By 12345 - Nov. 1, 2023, 6:16 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 17, 2023, 1:53 p.m.
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Enormous drop in the AO index 2 weeks out today. Could mean major cold at some point in December.

By metmike - Nov. 18, 2023, 4:01 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 24, 2023, 10:54 a.m.
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Total snowfall forecast the next week from the European model.

By metmike - Nov. 27, 2023, 12:10 p.m.
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Quiet weather the next 10 days. The big question is what's coming in mid-December?

Models going back and forth on that.

By metmike - Nov. 30, 2023, 9:44 a.m.
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Looking mild the next 2 weeks.

By metmike - Dec. 3, 2023, 7:13 a.m.
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Still mild thru the rest of December: