To see rain amounts, go here: https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.
Current Hazards at the link below.
Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Latest National radar images
This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
Weather map now.
In 24 hours and
In 48 hours.
Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below:
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive rain threat.
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
|Current Day 2 Forecast|
Severe Storm Risk......updated daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).
|Current Day 1 Outlook|
| Current Day 2 Outlook|
| Current Day 3 Outlook|
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Highs for days 3-7:
Lows days 3-7 below:
|6 to 10 day outlooks|
|Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps|
|Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks|
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Final May precip map below
Updated daily below:
Most of the severe drought in the West has been wiped out!
Last week, May 30, 2023
Huge expansion of drought in the Midwest!!
Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!
The ending of La Niña in 2023-heading towards El Nino, is causing the opposite weather-bombarding us with moisture.…..too much in some cases. This is a natural cycle NOT climate change!
Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:
NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22
23 responses |
Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m
EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!
Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.
GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.
2 week 850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
TOO COLD to plant the rest of April.
Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.
Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.
ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.
Our weather is tracking extremely closely to the La Nina analogs!
Current 8-14 day forecast:
The problem comes when the seasonal retreat northward of the jet stream occurs in June, the cold air also retreats north and the heat ridge in the south marches northward!
June is still a month away, and other things can interfere with the currently strong La Nina signal.
I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:
Just updated this morning.
This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.
Latest hazards map at the top. Record setting heat wave out West is almost over.
Hurricane Kay in the southwest US:
Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)
HRW crop may be getting planted in the dust. Not good for optimal early development before going dormant ahead of the harsh Winter cold.
An extremely tight temp gradient develops in week 2 between extreme cold to the north and very balmy trying to return deep south.
Because of this, small changes are causing models to flip flop, sometimes in extreme fashion. The 12z GFS was -4 HDDs bearish vs the 0Z run, which had been +9 HDDs bullish. The European model did the exact opposite. The last 12z run was an incredible +15 HDD's bullish after the previous 0z run was -8 HDDs bearish.
Individual ensemble solutions have an extremely wide spread.
This is the bullish version of the pattern from the last operational 18z GFS.
1. Jet stream map
2. 850 mb temperature map
Big snow event in the the state of ND on Thursday:
However, the NWS week 3-4 indicate that temps will warm up late this month into the first parts of December(though still cold in ND-one of the few places)
We woke up to a surprise 3-4 inches of snow in southwest IN. I was not expecting that much.
I re mortared a ton of bricks on our steps and walkway on Wed/Thu and have them covered with black plastic, mainly to try to trap the ground heat and prevent a deep hard freeze that might cause moisture still in the partially cured mortar to freeze up, expand and compromise the integrity of the bonding.
I started sweeping off the snow, worried that it would melt and then refreeze to ice, then decided to leave it on to help insulate more.
Before you made this last post, I was already typing a first post in a new wx thread. So, I hadn't seen any of your post when I was putting mine together:
Some extremely heavy precip in areas that need precip.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Drought monitor for December 27th below:
Temperatures in January 2023
Extremely mild Eastern half.
Tracking a storm that will turn into a BIG WINDBAG on Thursday, 2-9-23!
Another windbag storm!
More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.
Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.
On the other side, that contradicts the truth, those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.
Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.
Total rains the next 2 weeks from 3-21-23 forecast.
Gray shade is 5+ inches!
La Nina dead!
Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.
This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!
Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?
That doesn't sell!
This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the drought....is over!
Climate change INCREASES precip!
Next severe weather outbreak!
New Severe Weather outbreak 4-4/5-2023
Not been very active so far.
Welcome rains coming the the S.Plains drought areas next week!
U.S. weather outlook for May: not too strong of a story being told either way across the #Corn Belt. North Dakota would probably rather see warm instead of cool.
Am puzzled why they increase drought in IA/MO with the current pattern looking wet:
Snowpack is 150.19% of the May 1st average.
Found a new link/site today for soil moisture that is awesome!
There are 10 different choices. I picked this one:
8-14 day risk assessment map
I love that guy that you linked us with because of his enthusiasm and he was alot of wonderful stuff.
But he's a crappy weather forecaster in realms like the one he's using in this video because his objective is to sensationalize everything at the expense of NOT seeing dynamics which undercut that mission.
He insists that it will be dry in May in the places below that will receive alot of rain during just the next 2 weeks(6z GEFS 5-3-23). In fact, just the next week. His forecast for a dry May is already busting right after he released it!
This isn't just a difference in opinion. The model below might be too wet for the pattern but this guy is blowing the pattern recognition aspect of the forecast from being too closed minded with his focus on THE PRESENTATION and missing the forest because he's looking at a few impressive trees that lets him make a misleading video like this.
Put another way, he's using some solid principles about meteorology that apply to Omega Blocks, then embellishes and extrapolates and exaggerates to make an attention grabbing video which contrasts with ALL the model and expert forecasts using pattern recognition of THE BIGGER PICTURE.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
6z GEFS total precip 5-3-23
Again, I really like this guy for great weather information in many realms. Agricultural and energy weather forecasting would not be one of them or long range forecasting.
Short Term and current severe weather, YES!
El Nino/Summer weather forecast:
HONESTLY, I HAVEN'T HAD THE CHANCE TO LOOK AT RYANS' VIDEO, YET.
I FINALLY FOUND THE TIME TO WATCH HIS VIDEO, AS HE DISPERSED THE $100.000 OF DONATIONS HIS MEMBERS SENT INTO HIM, DURING HIS COVERAGE OF THOSE NASTY TORNADOS. HE & HIS CREW WERE BUYIN' EVERYTHING THEY COULD GET THEIR HANDS ON ~ PLUS, HE GAVE THE REST OUT IN CASH.
A GOOD MAN, IMO.
FROM BAR CHART
What Is A Negative SOI Index? >>> Implications For Grains And Soft Commodity Markets
I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.
This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast.
There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably.
Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get.
Extended models looking dry-ish
Ridge West, trough East pattern may be setting up.
1. 1 week from now upper level pattern
2. 2 weeks from now upper level pattern
MIKE ~ WHAT DO YOU THINK?
THIS GUY PARTNERS WITH "RYAN HALL, YA'LL "
How This Heatwave Will Change Everything…
Thanks much, Jean!
This guy sensationalizing to the max in the earliest portion of his video and an irritating voice turned me off with the first impression.
But I sat thru his entire presentation and ended up liking him. He clearly has an excellent understanding of meteorology, especially severe weather but pointed out several different items in his discussion that few experts touch upon but are fascinating facts...like Derecho's for instance and the Summer Monsoon in the Southwest.
He can't do much about the voice that he was born with but sadly for him, it's the opposite of the what the main guy was blessed with.
I had pure luck from having a mom that was the clone of Elizabeth Taylor (I was the male version of) that contributed to my appeal on television.
Latest weather comments here:
"But I sat thru his entire presentation and ended up liking him. He clearly has an excellent understanding of meteorology, especially severe weather but pointed out several different items in his discussion that few experts touch upon but are fascinating facts...like Derecho's for instance and the Summer Monsoon in the Southwest."
LOL I FIND HIM TO BE PRETTY DEAD-PAN GOOFY & ODDLY ENTERTAINING TO WATCH. FOR AS YOUNG AS HE LOOKS ~ HE IS VERY KEEN ON WEATHER. I'VE WATCHED HIM WARN OF TORNADOES, AT LEAST 60 SECONDS BEFORE THE NWS PUTS THE WARNINGS OUT, PLUS... HE PIN POINTS 'EM TO WITHIN A MILE, A LOT OF TIMES!
HERE'S RYAN HALL, YA'LL WITH HIS "SUPER EL NINO" UPDATE
A Super El Nino Is Coming The Biggest Weather Event This Year Is Coming…
Thanks, Jean! He's a great entertainer! Is mostly right on almost everything and packs alot of great information in. I won't nitpick. Gets viewers enthused about weather!
Wildfires in Canada:
Bullish C and S
Latest on dry weather above:
Over the last month, U.S. drought conditions eased in parts of the High Plains, incl. some of HRW #wheat country, but dryness has spread in the east, incl. Missouri & Illinois. However, #drought concerns are far from over in the western #Corn Belt.
As mentioned in the morning update, the upper ridge is backing up west causing it to cool down in the Midwest later in week 2 and possibly leading to increased rain chances after that.
Updated drought monitor.
Greatly expanding drought. Rains in June are now critical to prevent yield potential from eroding.
Last weather update:
Last weekend we trended wetter and then had a bloodbath Tuesday into early Wednesday.. And then we spent remainder week clawing back.. Even posting gains... Weekly reversals. Interesting to see what unfolds
You're exactly right! Great account of what happened!
5-28-23 WX turning LESS BULLISH!
26 responses |
Started by metmike - May 28, 2023, 11:39 a.m.
Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions May 30, 2023
Late in the week, the driest areas were in the ECB, best chance of rain, WCB.
GEFS with almost 2 inches of rain in most places, European Ensemble around 1 inch.
The last couple of model runs have taken away rains in the WCB. Added some in the SE Cornbelt.
As long as the EE has such skinny rains, half the average, I continue bullish.
Let's continue this discussion here:
Extremely cool products, Jean!
Rains increasing but still not enough AND HEAT WILL INCREASE!