KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 4, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 343.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -8.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -7.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 930.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)
8:15 AM ET. April ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +390000; previous +455000)
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -106.7B; previous -89.19B)
Exports (USD) (previous 228.63B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 317.81B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
9:45 AM ET. April US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 55.0; previous 58.0)
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 58.3; previous 58.3)
Business Activity Idx (previous 55.5)
Prices Idx (previous 83.8)
Employment Idx (previous 54.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 414.424M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.691M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.805M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.573M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 107.286M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.449M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.821M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.788M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 1)
Discount Rate (previous 0.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,689.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally crossing at 12,621.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,223.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,689.91. First support is Monday's crossing at 12,709.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally crossing at 12,621.30.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4330.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4020.18 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4221.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4330.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4056.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4020.18.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 143-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-04. First support is April's low crossing at 138-14. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.
June T-notes was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 120.185 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.222. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.045. Second support is the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was higher overnight and appears to be breaking out above the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle that began forming in early-March. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above April's high crossing at $109.20 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned triangle and could lead to a test of the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $109.20. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First support is the April 25th low crossing at $95.28. Second support is the April 11th low crossing at $92.60.
June heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the April 7th low, weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6608 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.2738. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.9178. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6608.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at $3.7000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.5887. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.7000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.4080. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2917.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off the April 25th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Monday's low, April's high crossing at 8.197 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.085 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 8.197. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.085. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 6.387.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.39.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07565 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.06362. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07565. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.04905. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2582. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 23rd high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2834 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2624. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2834. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2411. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the March 31st high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03510 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03510. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.05170. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.02030. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at $77.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.81 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.81. First support is Monday's low crossing at $77.41. Second support is last-December's low crossing at $77.19.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.078587 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.078587. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.080865. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.076280. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1939.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1897.50. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1928.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1789.90.
July silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, last-December's low crossing at $21.565 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $23.650 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.393. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.402. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $22.316. Second support is last-December low crossing at $21.565.
July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 4.1105 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.5120 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4437. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5857. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.2276. Second support is last-December low crossing at 4.1105.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.89 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.89 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.44 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.61 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.07. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $11.43 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.08 1/4. Second support is is March's low crossing at $9.67 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.94 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.38 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.81 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $12.02 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.94. Second support is the April 5th gap crossing at $10.46.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.59 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $12.06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.59 1/4. Second support is the April 4th low crossing at $10.95 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $16.09 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at $17.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 25% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $16.09 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.
July soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $448.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $438.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $448.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $422.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40.
July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the sell off from last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 87.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.97.
Thanks tallpine!
first heat ridge of the season coming up….is this the start of a La Niña driven hot and dry summer?
Wheat and natural gas have taken off today from the heat ridge coming in and fear that it's the start of the new pattern from our La Nina, which defines the upcoming Summer.
Weather now and the next 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Summer