INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 10, 2022, 7:49 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, May 10, 2022  

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. April NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 93.2)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +14.1%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +15.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 45.5)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 39.7)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.5M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.5M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.5M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W%

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%

 

                       Refinance Idx

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W%

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April CPI

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +11.0%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -1.1%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +8.5%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Refinery Usage

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg

 



 

 

Thursday, May 12, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg

 

                       Continuing Claims

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April PPI

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +1%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, (Cbf) Net Chg

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, May 13, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +2.6%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +1.1%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +16.1%)

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 64.4; previous 65.7)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 64.1)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.1)

 



 

 

Monday, May 16, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 24.6)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.3)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 25.1)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 49.1)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. March Treasury International Capital Data

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,347.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,347.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,891.97. First support is the overnight low crossing at 12,102.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3894.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4256.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4256.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4348.51. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3961.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3894.79.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidated some of the decline off last-December's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signaling a short-term low has likely been posted. If June extends the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-04. Second resistance is April 26th high crossing at 143-09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134-30. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.



June T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.062 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the April 14th crossing at 121.090. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.085. Second support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:June crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off the April 25th low, the March  24th high crossing at $113.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.18. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First support is the April 25th low crossing at $95.28. Second support is the April 11th low crossing at $92.60.



June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8106 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off the April 7th low, weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.2738. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8106. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4760.



June unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4199 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at $3.8904 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.8312. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $3.8904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.5645. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4199.    



June Henry natural gas was lower for the third day in a row overnight as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.589 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.132. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415.   



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.09.  



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06901 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06901. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08925. First support is the April 28th low crossing at $1.04905. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2696 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.2638. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2696. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2261. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232.



The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the November-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.99870 is the next downside target. Closes above the April 29th high crossing at 1.03620 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.03190. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at 1.03620. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.00400. Second support is the November-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.99870.  

 

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.39 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.86. First support is the overnight low crossing at $76.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85.  



The June Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077878 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077878. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1914.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1914.40. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1936.50. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1789.90.



July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $21.305 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $23.345 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $23.345. Second resistance is the May 2nd high crossing at $23.650. First support is last-December low crossing at $21.565. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $21.305.



July copper was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 4.1105 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.4400 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.4400. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4930. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.1240. Second support is last-December low crossing at 4.1105. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.53 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.53 1/2. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.  



July wheat was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 19th high crossing at $11.43 1/2 would mark an upside breakout of the March-May trading range. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $10.34 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 19th high crossing at $11.43 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.08 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $9.67 1/4. 



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.14 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $11.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28. First support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $11.14 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $10.86 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $12.34 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.20 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.63 1/2 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.63 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $17.34. First support is April's low crossing at $15.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $15.39.

 

July soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $438.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $422.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $438.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10.



July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.85.  


Comments
By metmike - May 10, 2022, 11:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Grains are not sure what they want to do with planting playing quick catch up.

NG was nuts again. Big spike down after 7 am to lowest in a month, almost 6.4 then, since just before 8am, in 2 hours we're up 9,000/contract to 7.3.