KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 13, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +2.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +1.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +16.1%)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 64.4; previous 65.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 64.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.1)
Monday, May 16, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 24.6)
Employment Idx (previous 7.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 25.1)
Prices Received (previous 49.1)
4:00 PM ET. March Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,046.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,046.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,767.09. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11,689.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4185.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4068.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4185.02. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3894.79. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-22. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134-30. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
June T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off Monday's low, the April 27th high crossing at 120.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.242 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the April 14th crossing at 121.090. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.085. Second support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off Wednesday's low, last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.37 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $98.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.37. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $98.20. Second support is the April 25th low crossing at $95.28. Third support is the April 11th low crossing at $92.60.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $3.7637 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off the April 7th low, weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.2738. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.7637. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5291.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight and posted a new all-time high as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4973 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.8946. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4973. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3021.
June Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.833 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.325 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.325.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $104.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.52.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06240 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06240. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08499. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1.03660. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2567 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2567. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2892. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.2164. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02897 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02897. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at 1.03620. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.99640. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.00 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.00. First support is Thursday'slow crossing at $76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1891.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1891.60. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1929.80. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.101 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.101. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.465. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $20.590. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.
July copper was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, last-August's low crossing at 3.9760 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4007 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4007. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5832. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.0370. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 3.9760.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.58 3/4 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.58 3/4. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.
July wheat was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the April 19th high crossing at $11.43 1/2 marked an upside breakout of the March-May trading range and opens the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.98 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.85 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $10.34 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low to a new contract high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.25 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.64 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.25 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.99 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.99 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.34 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.56 would signal that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.56. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $17.34. First support is April's low crossing at $15.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $15.39.
July soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $429.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $410.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $429.60. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.10 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 83.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is Monday's low crossing at 79.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.45.
Thanks tallpine. Hope you got a lot of your crop planted.