KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, May 16, 2022   

8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 24.6)

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.3)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 25.1)

                       Prices Received (previous 49.1)

4:00 PM ET. March Treasury International Capital Data

Tuesday, May 17, 2022   

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +1.1%; previous +0.5%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1.1%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)

9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.9%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.5%; previous 78.3%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.6)

10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (expected +1.8%; previous +1.5%)

10:00 AM ET. May NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (expected 75; previous 77)

4:30 PM ET.  API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.6M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,979.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,979.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,741.48. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,689.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.

The June S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4168.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4059.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4168.55. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3894.79. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26^th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-09. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134-30. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.

June T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.113 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.264 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 27^th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the April 14^th crossing at 121.090. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 117.085. Second support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:June crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the March 24^th high crossing at $113.51 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $98.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $111.71. Second resistance is the March 24^th high crossing at $113.51. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $98.20. Second support is the April 25^th low crossing at $95.28. Third support is the April 11^th low crossing at $92.60.

June heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.7637 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off the April 7^th low, weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at $4.2738. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.7637. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5387.

June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and posted a new all-time high as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5311 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.0111. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5311. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3152.    

June Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.842 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.375 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.375.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.07. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.63.  

The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06069 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06069. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08402. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.03615. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.

The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 23^rd high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2532 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2532. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2874. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.

The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02560 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02560. Second resistance is the April 29^th high crossing at 1.03620. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.99545. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.  

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.93 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.73. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.85.  

The June Japanese Yen was mostly steady overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 27^th high crossing at 0.078885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27^th high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1881.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1848.50. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1881.90. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.

July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.856 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.760. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.856. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.

July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3729 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, last-August's low crossing at 3.9760 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2169. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3729. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.0370. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 3.9760. 

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.95 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains and a possible test of March's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. If the March high is cleared, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is theAugust-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.60 1/4. Second support is the March 29^th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.  

July wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight triggered by news that India will for the most part ban all wheat sales for exports for this year. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the door is now open for a possible test of March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.86 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.47 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.86 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $10.34 1/4. 

July Kansas City wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low to a new contract high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.28 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.52. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.72 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.28 3/4.

July Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.85. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.43 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.09. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

July soybeans gapped above resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.55 3/4 and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.55 3/4 would signal that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.55 3/4. Second resistance is the April 29^th high crossing at $17.04 3/4. First support is the May 9^th low crossing at $15.78. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60.

July soybean meal gapped up and was higher overnight as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $448.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.

July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 5^th high crossing at 83.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.74.