Reuters reporting that grain analysts, traders and brokers in #China are struggling to make crop forecasts because travel to fields/crop tours are restricted under the COVID lockdowns.
If someone doesn't look at China's pattern of trying to achieve zero infections, you really have to wonder what they know about the virus. Just my cynical side coming out.
Yes, agree Jim. Things sure are different out there and much of it is hidden from us. That would be a wonderful NTR discussion!
U.S. #corn is seen 49% planted as of Sunday (5yr avg is 67%) vs 22% last week. #Soybeans are seen 29% planted (39% avg), spring #wheat 43% planted (67% avg). Report is out this afternoon at 3pm CT.
Sometimes, I can make pretty good guesses on crop conditions. Guessing correctly on the improvement on HRW last week because of the rains and the deterioration every week since last Fall on the dry weather for HRW.
This one is tricky. The map below is a key factor.
The wheat crop is already 39% P/VP, most of that the HRW crop, so it's impossible to make a VP crop worse since there is no "dead" category. There was likely some deterioration though in the worst places. It's hard to know if the earlier rains still benefited a few spots on the margin but last weeks heat had to have hurt the HRW crop that was F and P already.
With that heat, you can bet alot of C and S got planted. I usually do better predicting planting when we have delays. Producers can plant an incredible amount in a short time with today's planters. Also, huge planting the last couple of days often does not show up in the latest report.
Crop rating/planting USDA
Not surprisingly/as expected(for me), the wheat in VP category had the biggest change +3. This came from a -1 in the P and a -2 in the good category. So the ratings deteriorated but the market was supposed to be expecting a +1% improvement.
-7c on the HRW price right now, suggests that others expected this deterioration.
Corn had as much planted as expected.
Beans were +1% planted vs expectations.
Spring wheat was +3% planted vs expectations
U.S. #corn was 49% planted as of Sunday, up from 22% a week earlier but behind the five-year average of 67%. Trade expected 49%. This is the third slowest pace for the date in more than 25 years.
A lot of #corn planting was done in major states last week except North Dakota. The top producing states are all well behind average with the most pronounced delays in the western belt (Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa). Iowa and Illinois crossed the 50% mark last week.
U.S. #soybeans were 30% planted as of Sunday, behind the 5-year average of 39%. Those delays are not yet as severe as those for corn or spring wheat. Last year, soybean planting was super fast and 58% complete by the same date.
Barely any #soybeans are planted in North Dakota and Minnesota's pace is also extremely slow. 30% nationally vs 39% average is not too severe a delay so long as it does not worsen in the next week or so.
U.S. spring #wheat was 39% planted as of Sunday, the slowest for the date since 2011. The five-year average is 67% but 83% had been planted last year. North Dakota had planted 17% (60% is avg) and Minnesota just 5% (75% is avg). ND+MN grow 2/3 of the crop.
North Dakota is planting spring #wheat at about the slowest pace possible. 17% complete as of Sunday is better than only 1995 and 2011 for the date, barely. Conditions have been super wet this spring. ND was set to plant 46% of the U.S. spring wheat acreage this year.
Mid-May U.S. winter #wheat conditions (% good/excellent) vs average. Note conditions in the top states: Kansas 24% Oklahoma 13% Texas 5% Colorado 19% Montana 11% These 5 states planted 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop this year.
metmike: It's entirely the HRW crop obliterating the ratings because of the severe drought in those areas. For just the HRW crop, this might be the lowest rating ever!
N plains will dry out to plant corn and wheat. S.plains gets some rain. See weather.
The grains(WHEAT) are either testing support, or if they fail here.......sending out gap and crap buying exhaustion signals/technical signatures of at least a short term top.
Wheat is trading better planting MWE N.Plains and rains HRW in the S.Plains.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
