KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 358.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 913.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.75M; previous 1.793M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -2.4%; previous +0.3%)
Building Permits (expected 1.82M; previous 1.873M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.8%; previous +0.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 424.214M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.487M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 224.968M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.607M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 104.029M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.913M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.231M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.236M)
Thursday, May 19, 2022
N/A 3rd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 15.0; previous 17.6)
Prices Paid (previous 84.6)
Employment (previous 41.4)
New Orders (previous 17.8)
Prices Received (previous 55.0)
Delivery Times (previous 17.9)
Inventories (previous 11.9)
Shipments (previous 19.1)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 203K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1343000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -44K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 239.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 221.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 138.4K)
1000 AM ET. April Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.64M; previous 5.77M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous -2.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 375300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.0%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1643B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +76B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A U.S. President Joe Biden departs on South Korea / Japan visit
Friday, May 20, 2022
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, May 23, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.44)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.57)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower lower in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,815.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,815.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,709.06. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,689.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4130.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4130.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4314.74. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3894.79. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-16. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134-30. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
June T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.272 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June renews the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.002 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.002. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 117.085. Second support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at $121.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $115.56. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $121.17. First support the 10-day moving average crossing at $108.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.85.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5446 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off the April 7th low, weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at $4.2738. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $5.2215. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.7637. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5446.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6029 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's highcrossing at $4.0640. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7926. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6029.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 8.996 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.586 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.586. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.07. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.79.
The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05774 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05774. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08253. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.03615. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2477 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2477. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02081 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02081. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at 1.03620. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.99485. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7735 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $78.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7735. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.46.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1868.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1838.90. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1868.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.504 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.630. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.504. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.
July copper was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3244 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, last-August's low crossing at 3.9760 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3244. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.4400. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.0370. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 3.9760.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2 is the next upside target. If the April's high is cleared, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is theAugust-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.63 1/4. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.
July wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4 would renew the aforementioned rally and open the door for a possible test of the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $11.98 1/2 would signal that a double top with March's high has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $11.98 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.63 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $12.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $12.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.90 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.87 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.30 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the April 29th high crossing at $17.04 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $16.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 29th high crossing at $17.04 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $17.34. First support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $422.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $422.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $447.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 83.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.17.
Thanks tallpine!