KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 19, 2022
N/A 3rd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 15.0; previous 17.6)
Prices Paid (previous 84.6)
Employment (previous 41.4)
New Orders (previous 17.8)
Prices Received (previous 55.0)
Delivery Times (previous 17.9)
Inventories (previous 11.9)
Shipments (previous 19.1)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 203K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1343000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -44K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 239.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 221.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 138.4K)
1000 AM ET. April Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.64M; previous 5.77M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous -2.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 375300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.0%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1643B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +76B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A U.S. President Joe Biden departs on South Korea / Japan visit
Friday, May 20, 2022
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, May 23, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.44)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.57)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends Wednesday's sharp sell off. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,815.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,690.23. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 13,555.25. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,689.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's huge sell off. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4097.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4097.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4304.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3855.00. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-08. First support is April's low crossing at 134-30. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
June T-notes was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.284 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 118.160 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.284. First support is April's low crossing at 117.085. Second support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $121.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $115.56. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $121.17. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.34.
June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5487 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9028 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9028. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.2738. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5487. Second support is is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1114.
June unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6078 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.0640. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6078. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3401.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 8.996 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.641 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.641. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 6.415.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.07. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $100.90.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05593 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05593. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08130. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.03615. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2444 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2444. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.2638. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.
The June Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01997 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01997. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at 1.03620. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.99485. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $78.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7734. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is May's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1862.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1834.60. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1862.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.348 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.546. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.348. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.
July copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2971 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, last-August's low crossing at 3.9760 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2971. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.4400. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.0370. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 3.9760.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high appears to have been posted with Tuesday's high. Closes above March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4 would renew the rally off March's low and open the door for a possible test of the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $11.98 1/2 would confirm that a double top with March's high has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $11.98 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.73 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $12.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $12.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.98 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.99 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.99 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.39 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the April 29th high crossing at $17.04 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $16.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 29th high crossing at $17.04 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $17.34. First support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $420.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $420.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $446.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.
July soybean oil was sharply lower overnight and is trading below the lower boundary of this month's trading range crossing at 79.10. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 83.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 79.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.29.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is bearish wheat. Rain in the HRW drought areas of the S.Plains, turning drier to plant MWE.
Turning hot though in week 2 which is bullish ng.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
NG spike lower from the cooler Euro after midnight then came roaring back when the GFS was the warmest yet.