KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, May 23, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.44)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.57)
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
8:55 AM ET, Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +12.7%)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 59.7)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.7)
10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 763K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -8.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.4)
10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Shipments Idx (previous 17)
1:00 PM ET. April Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Wednesday, May 25, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 319.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -11.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 225)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -11.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 826.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.5%)
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 420.82M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.394M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.189M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.779M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 105.264M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.235M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.661M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.43M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thursday, May 26, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 218K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1317000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1023.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 902.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 334.1K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -1.4%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.0%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.0%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.8%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.2%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. April Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 103.7)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -8.2%)
10:30 AM ET, EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1732B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +89B)
11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 28)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 49)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 25)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 34)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
1630/2030 Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, May 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 65.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 69.4)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,540.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,540.24. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 13,555.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 11,491.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of huge sell off from last-Wednesday's high.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4292.43. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3807.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off last-December's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-22. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30. Third support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
June T-notes was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.206 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.206. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160. Second support is April's low crossing at 117.085. Third support is the May-2010 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 114.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $121.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $115.56. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $121.17. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.71.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9246 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5773 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9246. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $4.2738. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5773. Second support is is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1114.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6772 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.0640. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6772. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3729.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.778 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 8.996 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 8.996. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.778. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.726.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 103.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the overnight low crossing at $102.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.04.
The June Euro was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07999 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07999. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First support is May's low crossing at $1.03615. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the May 4th high crossing at 1.2638 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off the March 23rd high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.2638. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2813. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.05011 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.01244 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.03630. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.05011. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01877. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.01244.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $78.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.52. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. First support is May's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1856.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1856.80. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1909.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.149 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.149. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. First support is May's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.
July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2771 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July renews the decline off April's high, last-August's low crossing at 3.9760 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2771. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.4400. First support is May's low crossing at 4.0370. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 3.9760.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends the April-May trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.97 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. If July extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2. Second support is the March 29th low crossing at $6.95 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high appears to have been posted with last-Tuesday's high. If July extends last-week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.34 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above March's high crossing at $12.78 1/4 would renew the rally off March's low and open the door for a possible test of the February-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.34 1/2. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.34 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.94 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.09 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.46 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.50 1/2 is the next downside target. If July resumes this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.50 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.46 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the April 22nd high crossing at $17.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.53 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.53 1/4. Second support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $444.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $412.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 3rd high crossing at $435.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $444.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.
July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline and at the same time extending this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below trading range support crossing at 78.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 78.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.71.
Thanks tallpine!