Happy July 24th!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Wet East Coast!
Rains(big) increase C.Plains, spreading east thru S.Midwest!
The latest forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat..........mostly East.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Not very high without a strong jet stream.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Wednesday....... comfortable Midwest, to East Coast. S.Plains finally cooled off a bit. Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest. High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Hot South. Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).
Record Heat West!!!!!
How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Below average in the N/C.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.
Heat backs up to the West! Record heat in some places and this is the hottest time of year!!
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Active in the East/Northeast with Atlantic moisture pouring in. Becoming active in the Central Plains.
Here is the latest radar image:
Widespread rain in the East moving from south to north to even northwest all day around an upper level low just to the west.
Satellite picture.
Rains the past 24 hours.
Wet in the East.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(relief KS/MO/AR late this week)
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks:
Today: Cooler than average Midwest to Southeast..... heat backed up West...pushed southwest in S.Plains.
In 5+ days:
Hot West!! Below average temperatures N/C.Plains/ Midwest.
In 10+ days Hot West!!!! Below average Midwest.
Day 15 Hot West to Plains.............The pattern may be shifting and moving
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this nudge the trough northward?
Around half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............heat ridge south cool north.
Alot of rain .....potential for too much rain.
Precip below:
New 12Z GFS is not alot different than previous runs. Looks to me like its setting up the stage/supporting a new pattern that will feature a heat ridge in the south and cooler air north.
In between, at least a moderate jet stream by August standards and a stationary to slow moving front between the 2 air masses, along with deep Gulf moisture flowing north from the heat ridge that provided the ingredients for heavy rains.
It looks likely that the N.Plains(ND/SD) would be dry with this pattern as the storms all develop much farther south. The East Coast would be very wet and in the path of numerous storms clusters that form upstream.
The strengthening El Nino is favorable for this set up in August also..............even though August/September, typically are pretty dry months in the Midwest.
Being over 10 days out, this is very speculative.
Last operational GFS at 2 weeks.
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
Total 2 week rains below.
NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies shrinking in size and intensity in the later period vs their previous outlooks.
Wet in the eastern parts of the country. Possibly dry in the Plains.
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Heavy rains KS/MO/AR to points east.
More intense heat out West.
The latest 18z Operational GFS and recent ones since yesterday, have been pretty cool again in the Midwest/East in week 2(and deep with the upper level trough) after looking warmer Sat-Mon.
gfs_namer_336_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_336_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_336_850_temp_ht |