INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 2, 2022, 8:05 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, June 2, 2022   

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. May Challenger Job-Cut Report

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +14%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +301000; previous +247000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (expected -7.5%; previous +6.6%)

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +11.6%; previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 208K; previous 210K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1346000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +31K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +2.2%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.5%)

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1812B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +80B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 419.801M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.019M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.707M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.482M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.921M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.657M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.2%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.684M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.023M)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. May Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, June 3, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May U.S. Employment Report

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +325K; previous +428K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.6%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.85)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.31%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.2%; previous +5.46%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +22K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +406K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 210K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 719.8K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 244K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 54.3; previous 55.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May ISM Report On Business Services PMI

 

                       Services PMI (expected 56.8; previous 57.1)

 

                       Business Activity Idx (previous 59.1)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 84.6)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 49.5)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 54.6)

 



 

 

Monday, June 6, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Employment Trends Index

 

                       ETI (previous 120.18)

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. May Global Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,371.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,222.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 12,883.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,371.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,222.85. Second support is May's low crossing at 11,491.25.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight, Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4250.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4018.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4202.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4250.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4018.90. Second support is May's low crossing at 3807.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the May 18th low crossing at 137-30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 142-22 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-June. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25. First support is the May 18th low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.



June T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 18th low crossing at 118.160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 120.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211. First support is the May 18th low crossing at 118.160. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:July crude oil was sharply lower overnight and trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $122.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $119.98. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $122.88. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.38.  



July heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.7713 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.1716. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.7713. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5428.



July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.7285 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.1028. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.8155. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.7286.    



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.340 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9.447. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.340. Second support is May's low crossing at 6.521.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the April 21st low crossing at $99.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.98. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.58. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.  



The June Euro was higher in late-overnight trading and the high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05959 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07533 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07533. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05959. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.03615.  



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2434 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2735 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2735. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.3145. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2434. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2156.



The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at 1.05683 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02288 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.04840. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at 1.05683. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.03585. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02287. 

 

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight but the high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the April 21st high crossing at $80.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $80.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $80.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.88.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 0.076215 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.078898 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-May decline crossing at 0.079249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.080852. First support is May's low crossing at 0.076215. Second support is the 2002 low crossing at 0.074150.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average $1903.50 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $1830.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1903.30. Second is the 50% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $1938.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1830.20. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.



July silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at $23.345 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.489. First support is May's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.



July copper was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4868 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2563 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4868. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.5238. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.2035. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76 3/4. Second resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.  



July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.48 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.48 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $9.67 1/4.  



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.34 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.52. First support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.65.



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.91 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.79 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.91 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.59 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $17.49 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $17.41. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.60 1/4. Second support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78.  

 

July soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $438.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $438.30. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10.



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline and is trading above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.89. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 23rd high crossing at 82.05. Second resistance is the May 16th high crossing at 84.64. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.89. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75.   


Comments
By metmike - June 2, 2022, 9:59 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!

By metmike - June 2, 2022, 11:05 a.m.
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