NG 6/5/22+
56 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - June 5, 2022, 8:16 p.m.

Memorial Day week EIA vs CDDs 2003-2021:


CDD            EIA             Year
60             +92            2018
57             +77            2006
55             +62            2012
55             +80            2011
52             +65            2016
51             +99            2010
45             +119          2019

44                ?              2022

42             +102           2020
38             +110           2007
37             +119           2014
36             +102           2004
32             +132           2015
31             +111           2013
30             +106           2017
30             +124           2009
30             +105           2008
26             +105           2005
26              +98            2021  
25             +114           2003

Avg CDD 2003-2021 = 40
Avg EIA 2003-2021 = +101


 Any guesses for this week's Memorial Day week based report? CDDs were 44. Memorial Day week has been the week averaged out with the largest injection of the year though not every year is that way of course.

Comments
Re: NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 5, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!


Old thread here:          


    Natural Gas April 21, 2022            

                            86 responses |               

                Started by metmike - April 21, 2022, 11:48 a.m.     

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83540/

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Temperatures from last week for the next EIA report this Thursday, including Memorial Day.

Very warm in the East and South that have some high population centers.

Cool Northwest to  Rockies to N.Plains, where not many people live.

Injection might be a bit less than average.

OK, I just looked at your EIA injection data for the first time and it confirms that with the CDD's in the top half of the years which you have listed. 

Wow, Larry. You sure have tons of great data!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220603.7day.mean.F.gif

       

By metmike - June 5, 2022, 9:22 p.m.
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Dome of death, La Nina heat ridge developing in week 2!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 5, 2022, 9:38 p.m.
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Here's some good data from the last year, so that you can see how the injections/withdrawals compared to the forecast. 

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

  Latest Release   Jun 02, 2022   Actual  90B   Forecast  86B  Previous  80B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 09, 2022 10:30 96B90B
Jun 02, 2022 10:3090B86B80B
May 26, 2022 10:3080B89B89B
May 19, 2022 10:3089B87B76B
May 12, 2022 10:3076B79B77B
May 05, 2022 10:3077B68B40B
Apr 28, 2022 10:3040B38B53B
Apr 21, 2022 10:3053B37B15B
Apr 14, 2022 10:3015B15B-33B
Apr 07, 2022 10:30-33B-26B26B
Mar 31, 2022 10:3026B21B-51B
Mar 24, 2022 10:30-51B-56B-79B
Mar 17, 2022 10:30-79B-73B-124B
Mar 10, 2022 11:30-124B-117B-139B
Mar 03, 2022 11:30-139B-138B-129B
Feb 24, 2022 11:30-129B-134B-190B
Feb 17, 2022 11:30-190B-193B-222B
Feb 10, 2022 11:30-222B-222B-268B
Feb 03, 2022 11:30-268B-216B-219B
Jan 27, 2022 11:30-219B-216B-206B
Jan 20, 2022 11:30-206B-194B-179B
Jan 13, 2022 11:30-179B-173B-31B
Jan 06, 2022 11:30-31B-54B-136B
Dec 30, 2021 11:30-136B-125B-55B
Dec 23, 2021 11:30-55B-56B-88B
Dec 16, 2021 11:30-88B-86B-59B
Dec 09, 2021 11:30-59B-54B-59B
Dec 02, 2021 11:30-59B-57B-21B
Nov 24, 2021 13:00-21B-22B26B
Nov 18, 2021 11:3026B25B7B
Nov 10, 2021 13:007B10B63B
Nov 04, 2021 10:3063B63B87B
Oct 28, 2021 10:3087B86B92B
Oct 21, 2021 10:3092B90B81B
Oct 14, 2021 10:3081B94B118B
Oct 07, 2021 10:30118B105B88B
Sep 30, 2021 10:3088B87B76B
Sep 23, 2021 10:3076B75B83B
Sep 16, 2021 10:3083B76B52B
Sep 09, 2021 10:3052B40B20B
Sep 02, 2021 10:3020B25B29B
Aug 26, 2021 10:3029B40B46B
Aug 19, 2021 10:3046B31B49B
Aug 12, 2021 10:3049B49B13B
Aug 05, 2021 10:3013B21B36B
Jul 29, 2021 10:3036B43B49B
Jul 22, 2021 10:3049B44B55B
Jul 15, 2021 10:3055B47B16B
Jul 08, 2021 10:3016B34B76B
Jul 01, 2021 10:3076B68B55B
Jun 24, 2021 10:3055B66B16B
Jun 17, 2021 10:3016B72B98B
Jun 10, 2021 10:3098B98B98B
Jun 03, 2021 10:3098B95B115B
By metmike - June 5, 2022, 9:45 p.m.
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1. Note that the blue line in the graph below is well below the 5 year average and near the bottom of the 5 year range.  This is one of the biggest reasons that prices are the highest in over a decade.

2. Record exports and high prices in Europe are another factor.

3. Seasonals (based on historical prices) are often peaking in June is another factor.

4. Long term investment by the big players in natural gas, have been lagging too because of the war on fossil fuels, so production has been slow to respond to such high prices compared to other times in the past. 

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 27, 2022   |  Released: June 2, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 9, 2022 

                                               +90 BCF Bearish                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(05/27/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region05/27/2205/20/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East357  325  32  32   409  -12.7  418  -14.6  
Midwest420  391  29  29   519  -19.1  494  -15.0  
Mountain113  109  4  4   150  -24.7  133  -15.0  
Pacific195  190  5  5   266  -26.7  245  -20.4  
South Central817  797  20  20   955  -14.5  948  -13.8  
   Salt248  251  -3  -3   299  -17.1  297  -16.5  
   Nonsalt569  546  23  23   656  -13.3  651  -12.6  
Total1,902  1,812  90  90   2,299  -17.3  2,239  -15.1  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,902 Bcf as of Friday, May 27, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 90 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 397 Bcf less than last year at this time and 337 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,239 Bcf. At 1,902 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - June 6, 2022, 10:45 a.m.
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Forecast Heat, ‘Stumbling’ Production Lift Natural Gas Futures Early

 


Declining production estimates and indications of stronger heat toward the middle of the month in the latest forecasts helped send natural gas futures sharply higher in early trading Monday. The July Nymex contract was up 46.0 cents to $8.983/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. The July contract was testing the psychologically significant $9 mark in… 

metmike: The upside breakaway gap on last night's open obviously held and we're up $7,000 vs the close Friday from the heat ridge.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83540/#85252

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#85338


By metmike - June 8, 2022, 1:23 p.m.
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NG just dropped $7,000/contract in 1 hour!!!

By metmike - June 8, 2022, 1:31 p.m.
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-$9,000 now from the highs!

Around a 10,000 drop from the high today to the low a few minutes ago.

Barely filled the huge bullish break away gap higher on Sunday Night's open.


Now back up 4,000+ from the extreme spike lows just 5 minutes ago. This is the most extreme trading in ng in history and I've been trading it for 3 decades.



By metmike - June 8, 2022, 2:02 p.m.
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Back down to -12,000 from the highs(to the lows). Yep, have NEVER witnessed this extreme of a price move so quickly in ng trading history before today. NEVER!

Larry,

Are you sure you don't want to start trading natural gas again (-:

By WxFollower - June 8, 2022, 2:40 p.m.
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Mike, yes, I'm sure. What do the GEFS CDDs look like today at 12Z vs the 6Z/0Z? 

 NG dropped from ~9.54 just after noon CDT to ~8.46 near 12:50 PM CDT.

 Here's the cited main reason for the plunge, a SMALL explosion at Freeport LNG export facility:


 https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1534594548541927425?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

By WxFollower - June 8, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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 Any guesses for tomorrow's EIA? Will it be the highest injection so far this season?

By metmike - June 8, 2022, 2:51 p.m.
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Thanks much Larry. I'll guess in a minute.

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 8, 2022, 7:47 p.m.
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Freeport LNG Blast Rocks Natural Gas Futures, but Cash Still Climbing on Scorching Heat

 Although the long-term implications were still unknown, news of an explosion at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the Texas coast took a hatchet to natural gas futures midweek. The July Nymex gas futures contract – up about 30 cents at midday and not far off the $9.664/MMBtu intraday high – plummeted as… 


metmike: The huge heat ridge was supporting ng, with it being sharply higher..... until the explosion damaged one of our export facilities and ng had the wildest trading day in history. Closing the huge bullish gap higher on Sunday Night and at one point traded  over $12,000/contract off the highs of the day and most of the drop came in just over an hour.

Sharply lower still  this evening.

By metmike - June 8, 2022, 7:49 p.m.
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Larry, I'll guess 99 BCF

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 8, 2022, 8:13 p.m.
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NG down another 5,000+  since the close and down 15,000+ from the highs late  this morning.

I would bet that this is the biggest drop in less than 8 hours in history.

By metmike - June 9, 2022, 10:30 a.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 3, 2022   |  Released: June 9, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 16, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                                +97 BCF A bit bullish??..........I guessed +99 BCF                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/03/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region06/03/2205/27/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East387  357  30  30   440  -12.0  448  -13.6  
Midwest445  420  25  25   543  -18.0  523  -14.9  
Mountain118  113  5  5   159  -25.8  141  -16.3  
Pacific206  195  11  11   275  -25.1  255  -19.2  
South Central843  817  26  26   980  -14.0  972  -13.3  
   Salt251  248  3  3   302  -16.9  301  -16.6  
   Nonsalt593  569  24  24   678  -12.5  670  -11.5  
Total1,999  1,902  97  97   2,397  -16.6  2,339  -14.5  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,999 Bcf as of Friday, June 3, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 97 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 398 Bcf less than last year at this time and 340 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf. At 1,999 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 


By metmike - June 9, 2022, 10:36 a.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release  Jun 09, 2022  Actual97B   Forecast96B    Previous90B

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 09, 2022 10:3097B96B90B
Jun 02, 2022 10:3090B86B80B
May 26, 2022 10:3080B89B89B
May 19, 2022 10:3089B87B76B
May 12, 2022 10:3076B79B77B
May 05, 2022 10:3077B68B40B


By metmike - June 9, 2022, 12:01 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Recover Ground after EIA Storage Data Falls Short of Triple-Digit Mark

 The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 97 Bcf injection into natural gas storage inventories for the week ending June 3. Futures prices bounced a bit despite the on-target build. Ahead of the EIA report, the July Nymex gas futures contract was trading more than 50.0 cents lower day/day at $8.186/MMBtu. As the print crossed… 


metmike: Intense heat which will increase AC use and ng demand still on the way but after yesterday/last nights plunge of more than $16,000/contract in less than 24 hours..........one would think that the bulls may be more cautious......but this is ng. Maybe we'll be up $20,000/contract next week?  Seriously!

By WxFollower - June 9, 2022, 1:27 p.m.
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Mike, excellent guess of the EIA. With it being +97, it is the largest injection of the season to date. It remains to be seen whether or not it ends up the largest of the entire year. Going back 20 years, Memorial Day week's average injection is higher by a good margin than any other week of the year though that doesn't mean any one year's Memorial Day week's injection will necessarily be the largest of that year. The hottest ones are less likely to be.

 It looks like average survey guesses properly took into account the Memorial Day holiday related demand reduction because they were near this level (upper 90s to low 100s). For example, the WSJ poll mean was perfect with its +97.

By metmike - June 10, 2022, 5:55 p.m.
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Thanks very much Larry!

I remember the good old days when you brought a contest like this to us weekly and had several people making guesses.

As you noted a several weeks ago, trading ng with skill/profits based mostly on weather has become more like driving thru a field loaded with land minds!

The historical drop of $16,000/contract in less than 24 hours, 2 days ago with NO CHANGE in the HOT weather forecast is a perfect example.


NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 10, 2022, 6:14 p.m.
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Highest price for natural gas in 14 years. Every time prices increased, even half this much the rig count soared higher so that supplies would gush out as the big investers saw incentive to make more money.

The cure for high prices is...............high prices.

Not any more with fossil fuels. The government is suppressing new supplies by disadvantaging new money investments in fossil fuels  to stifle future profits with its war on fossil fuels.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs


Investment moneys in this business have seen the writing on the wall, long before Biden took over(Obama made it crystal clear). There are other factors at play with regards to production/well too. 


                       https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrrg_xr0_nus_cm.htm 



Re: NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 10, 2022, 6:16 p.m.
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https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/uttered-in-2008-still-haunting-obama-in-2012-074892

“If somebody wants to build a coal-fired power plant, they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them,” Obama said, responding to a question about his cap-and-trade plan. He later added, “Under my plan … electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.”

By metmike - June 13, 2022, 1:42 a.m.
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Forecast is close to expected. Troughing in the East/Northeast means cooler temps there where alot of people live........a bit bearish ng.

Heat ridge shifts west to the Plains, where less people live.

By metmike - June 13, 2022, 11:37 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Drop Again as Market Fixates on Freeport LNG Uncertainty

 

Natural gas futures hovered in a narrow range of modest gains and losses early Monday before cruising downward and ultimately finishing deep in negative territory, as traders assessed robust summer demand expectations against a shock last week to U.S. export capacity. The July Nymex gas futures contract settled at $8.609/MMBtu, down 24.1 cents day/day. The… 

metmike: The heat has become a bit more bullish the model run, with less cooling in week 2 in the Northeast. This is battling some strong bearish headwinds.

By metmike - June 13, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Temps for this Thursday's EIA:

Hot in the SW/W to Texas.

Pleasant, N.Plains to Midwest to Northeast to Mid Atlantic to Upper South..where alot of people live.  Injection should be close to average, maybe a few BCF more than average.

Do you have anything Larry? Others?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220610.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - June 14, 2022, 9:25 a.m.
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NG just fell off another cliff!

Up sharply after midnight when, especially the Euro was much hotter......+6 CDD's but just spiked down $9,000 from those highs real fast.

By metmike - June 14, 2022, 9:34 a.m.
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Down $16,000/contract from the highs!

17,000.....18,000

By WxFollower - June 14, 2022, 1:55 p.m.
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Mike,

 So glad to not be trading this these days. If you are, hopefully you're doing well or at least ok.

By metmike - June 14, 2022, 3:27 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

I was going to buy 5 contracts after midnight, especially after  the Euro came out hotter and of course use a trailing stop and staying up all night and could have done well as we rallied to the highs after 6:30am.

 Just couldn't pull the trigger and chose sleep instead of stress. A drop of 19,000, most of it in less than 2 hours. I think that breaks last weeks record drop.

In the past, there were some YEARS that didn't feature a range that wide!

Just confirmed, we blew away last weeks 12,000 drop easily!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85343/#85434


$15,000 of it came in around 20 minutes!! Any idea what the news was?

By WxFollower - June 14, 2022, 4:17 p.m.
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Mike said: "$15,000 of it came in around 20 minutes!! Any idea what the news was?"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike,

 

06/14 08:43a CST  *DJ Natural Gas Falls 13% to $7.460 After Freeport LNG Says 
Full Restart Not Likely Until Late 2022 
 
  
  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires 


06/14 09:00a CST  DJ Natural Gas Falls 16% On Freeport Restart Delays -- Market 
Talk 
 
     0959 ET - Natural gas prices drop 16% to $7.211/mmBtu after Freeport LNG, 
the nation's second-largest LNG exporter, says in an email it's not likely to 
see operations fully back to normal until late 2022 following last week's fire 
and explosion that shut down the plant completely. It says, however, that the 
plant could see a resumption of "partial operations" in about 90 days. The 
company previously said it would be shut down for at least three months, and so 
this news of even a partial restart still being three months away is bearish in 
that overall feedgas to LNG facilities demand could remain subdued for a while. 
(dan.molinski@wsj.com)  
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 
NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 14, 2022, 5:24 p.m.
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Thanks much Larry!  I was guessing it might be related to the same thing that hit a week ago based on how similar the reaction was. Last week, the market took a bit longer to react but I think that traders were super tuned into any news on this particular item, after that event last week and reacted with mind boggling swiftness.

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 15, 2022, 12:30 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Rebound Early as Traders Weigh Freeport Outage, Potentially Hot Summer

 Natural gas futures rebounded early Wednesday as traders continued to mull the impact of an extended outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in the context of storage deficits and a potentially hot summer ahead. After plummeting $1.420 in Tuesday’s session following news that the Freeport LNG facility won’t see a return… 


metmike: One can guess that we have this dialed in but trading this market without a stop would be insane. If somebody was long 5 contracts of July NG yesterday with no stop,  they could have lost $75,000 in 20 minutes yesterday when the news hit.......or made that much being short. 

Based on me testing some orders, it looks like the margins haven't changed.

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 16, 2022, 1:19 p.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage 

Latest Release   Jun 16, 2022   Actual92B   Previous97B

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386












By metmike - June 16, 2022, 1:21 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

 for week ending June 10, 2022   |  Released: June 16, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 23, 2022 

                                 +92 BCF Nuetral?                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/10/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region06/10/2206/03/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East407  376 R 31  31   459  -11.3  474  -14.1  
Midwest482  454 R 28  28   567  -15.0  550  -12.4  
Mountain122  118  4  4   164  -25.6  147  -17.0  
Pacific221  211 R 10  10   242  -8.7  255  -13.3  
South Central863  843  20  20   993  -13.1  992  -13.0  
   Salt251  251  0  0   299  -16.1  304  -17.4  
   Nonsalt612  593  19  19   694  -11.8  688  -11.0  
Total2,095  2,003 R 92  92   2,425  -13.6  2,418  -13.4  
R=Revised.
Working gas stocks were revised to reflect resubmissions of data during the three-week period from May 20, 2022, to June 3, 2022.  The reported revisions caused the stocks for June 03, 2022, to change from 1,999 Bcf to 2,003 Bcf, and working gas stocks for the week ending May 27, 2022, changed from 1,902 to 1,901 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending May 27 and June 03 changed from 97 Bcf to 102 Bcf.  The reported revisions for the week ending May 20, 2022, changed working natural gas stocks from 1,819 Bcf to 1,812 Bcf.      Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.  

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,095 Bcf as of Friday, June 10, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 330 Bcf less than last year at this time and 323 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,418 Bcf. At 2,095 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 16, 2022, 1:24 p.m.
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Storage Injection Meets Expectations; Rebound Rally for Natural Gas Futures Continues

metmike: We spiked to $8 after the release and are off 4,000 from the highs but still up almost 2,000 for the day with extreme heat dominating the 2 week forecast.

1pm update: We're 6,000 off the highs and around unchanged for the day.


NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 19, 2022, 11:55 p.m.
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NG had a fairly decent sized gap lower on the open. -2,000 compared to the last trade Friday.

We continued down another 1,000 after that, so the gap is wide open.

Could serve as a bearish downside break away gap.

A trade above 6.881 would fill the gap and negate that technical formation above and potentially be a gap and crap, selling exhaustion signature. 

Weather model updates will play a role in determining which one of those technical formations is likely to stay in place.

Seasonals strongly favor an early Summer top at this time of year. The massive spike higher in recent weeks would certainly suggest the top is in. 


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160158-natural-gas-seasonal-play-sets-up-for-springtime-option-sellers

Natural Gas: Seasonal Play Sets Up For Springtime Option Sellers | Seeking  Alpha

           

      +++++++++++++++++++++++++++                

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/ngn22/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

   

By WxFollower - June 20, 2022, 12:22 a.m.
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I had said 11 days ago:

 "Mike, excellent guess of the EIA. With it being +97, it is the largest injection of the season to date. It remains to be seen whether or not it ends up the largest of the entire year. Going back 20 years, Memorial Day week's average injection is higher by a good margin than any other week of the year though that doesn't mean any one year's Memorial Day week's injection will necessarily be the largest of that year."

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 Update: I just realized that this changed due to revisions released in last week's report:

 "the implied net change between the weeks ending May 27 and June 03 changed from 97 Bcf to 102 Bcf."

 This obviously somewhat increases the chance that Memorial Day week in 2022 will be the largest of the year.

 Also, note that the subsequent week had a +92 or a 10 lower injection. This was despite having 4 fewer CDDs and 2 fewer HDDs than Memorial Day week. This likely was largely due to not having the holiday slowdown of Memorial Day week. It is the holiday slowdown of Memorial Day week within a very low demand time of year that is the major reason why that week averages the highest injection of the season.


 Now I'll update my table to add 2022:

 

Memorial Day week EIA vs CDDs 2003-2021:


CDD            EIA             Year
60             +92            2018
57             +77            2006
55             +62            2012
55             +80            2011
52             +65            2016
51             +99            2010
45             +119          2019

44              +102         2022

42             +102           2020
38             +110           2007
37             +119           2014
36             +102           2004
32             +132           2015
31             +111           2013
30             +106           2017
30             +124           2009
30             +105           2008
26             +105           2005
26              +98            2021  
25             +114           2003

Avg CDD 2003-2022 = 40
Avg EIA 2003-2022 = +101

 

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 20, 2022, 1:25 a.m.
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Thanks much Larry!

we missed your ng posts like this from the past and are thrilled to see them.

so I went from being 2 bcf too high to 3 bcf too low.

By metmike - June 22, 2022, 2:19 p.m.
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Tuesday after the close:

Easing Heat, ‘Monumental Reshaping’ of Supply Fuels More Losses for Natural Gas Futures

 Wednesday morning:

Natural Gas Futures Slide Early Amid Freeport LNG Impacts as Forecasts Trend Hotter

metmike: It is looking hotter in the extended by if the forecast was all about weather, we would never have been sharply lower earlier.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/



By WxFollower - June 22, 2022, 7:11 p.m.
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metmike: It is looking hotter in the extended by if the forecast was all about weather, we would never have been sharply lower earlier.

------------------------------------

Mike,

 As you know, this is one of the major reasons I've lost interest in trading it.

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:22 a.m.
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Thanks Larry!

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  Latest Release    Jun 23, 2022    Actual74B    Forecast65B   Previous92  BBEARISH!!!


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 23, 2022 10:3074B65B92B
Jun 16, 2022 10:3092B 97B
Jun 09, 2022 10:3097B96B90B
Jun 02, 2022 10:3090B86B80B
May 26, 2022 10:3080B89B89B
May 19, 2022 10:3089B87B76B
NG 6/5/22+
0 likes
By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:24 a.m.
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 https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 17, 2022   |  Released: June 23, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 30, 2022 

                                                   BEARISH!!!!!!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/17/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region06/17/2206/10/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East430  407  23  23   484  -11.2  501  -14.2  
Midwest506  482  24  24   591  -14.4  577  -12.3  
Mountain128  122  6  6   168  -23.8  153  -16.3  
Pacific231  221  10  10   239  -3.3  260  -11.2  
South Central875  863  12  12   992  -11.8  1,009  -13.3  
   Salt248  251  -3  -3   296  -16.2  305  -18.7  
   Nonsalt628  612  16  16   697  -9.9  704  -10.8  
Total2,169  2,095  74  74   2,474  -12.3  2,500  -13.2  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,169 Bcf as of Friday, June 17, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 74 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 305 Bcf less than last year at this time and 331 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,500 Bcf. At 2,169 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 


NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:26 a.m.
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This was the 7 day period for that EIA........HOT!

High demand  for AC and burning of NG to generate electricity!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220617.7day.mean.F.gif

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 24, 2022, 7:34 p.m.
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After Record Heat, Cooler Forecast Leads to Sharp Discounts for Natural Gas Weekly, Futures Prices

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/after-record-heat-cooler-forecast-leads-to-sharp-discounts-for-natural-gas-weekly-futures-prices/

metmike: Seasonals crash lower here but storage is near the bottom of the 5 year average and there's too much heat in the July forecast to do much catching up. However, the rig count is finally responding to the higher prices.

By metmike - June 27, 2022, 10:44 a.m.
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Higher Production, Weaker LNG Export Volumes Seen Pressuring Natural Gas Futures

 Bearish-trending fundamentals data over the weekend kept the pressure on natural gas futures in early trading Monday. The expiring July Nymex contract, scheduled to roll off the board Tuesday, was off 3.5 cents to $6.185/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. August was down 2.8 cents to $6.253. Prices have been facing downward pressure from a… 


metmike: Mixed signals here. Bearish items are noted above. Also, July NG expires tomorrow which often features a spike......more often higher than lower. Weather is still bullish/hot in many places but NOT AS hot as previous and Summer forecasts and the heat backs off in the high population Northeast.

By metmike - June 27, 2022, 10:22 p.m.
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Technicals Drive Natural Gas Futures Rebound as Cash Rises on Lingering Heat

 An early slide along the Nymex natural gas futures curve gave way to a technical bounce midday, ultimately boosting the July contract by 28.1 cents to a $6.501/MMBtu settlement. August futures climbed 26.5 cents to $6.546. Spot gas prices also were mostly higher after the weekend, even as temperatures moderated from the unusually high levels… 

NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 28, 2022, 1:47 p.m.
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July Temps ‘Rather Bullish’ as Natural Gas Futures Extend Gains

metmike: Nothing new in the forecast. July NG expires today.



NG 6/5/22+
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By metmike - June 28, 2022, 8:25 p.m.
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Temps last week for this week's EIA report:

Hot in the Plains!! Mild/Pleasant Northeast to Mid Atlantic. Also Rockies


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220624.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - June 29, 2022, 11 a.m.
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By metmike - June 29, 2022, 11:03 a.m.
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Freeport LNG Outage Proves Need to Boost Natural Gas Output, Says Huntsman CEO

https://live-natgasintel.pantheonsite.io/freeport-lng-outage-proves-need-to-boost-natural-gas-output-says-huntsman-ceo/


By metmike - June 29, 2022, 6:53 p.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures Make Soft Landing at Front of Curve Despite Bullish Backdrop

 Nymex natural gas futures, led now by the August contract, failed to hold onto early price gains amid weakening demand ahead of the holiday weekend. The August Nymex futures contract settled at $6.498/MMBtu, down 7.2 cents on the day. September futures slipped 6.4 cents to $6.493. At A Glance: Models still point to hot July… 


metmike: Lower CDD's on all the models this morning/early pm.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85343/#86436


By metmike - June 29, 2022, 8:37 p.m.
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https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/the-best-mislaid-plans-of-mice-and-men-often-go-awry-biden-oil-edition/

Most of the Freeport LNG shipments this year were going to Europe:

 

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, and U.S. Department of Energy, LNG Monthly reports

 

The sudden ~2 Bcf/d glut in domestic supply caused US natural gas prices to retreat and European LNG prices to skyrocket again.  

 

The Freeport facility accounts for roughly 20% of U.S. LNG processing capacity, drawing 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from U.S. shale producers.

A full restart of the facility will not happen until late this year, the company said this week. The outage sent U.S. gas futures down 18% from the price a day before the fire, while European gas prices have surged more than 60%, with an additional boost from less gas on Russian pipelines. r

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 11:13 a.m.
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  https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 24, 2022   |  Released: June 30, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 7, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                                                         +82 BCF Bearish!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/24/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region06/24/2206/17/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East461  430  31  31   509  -9.4  526  -12.4  
Midwest535  506  29  29   619  -13.6  603  -11.3  
Mountain134  128  6  6   172  -22.1  158  -15.2  
Pacific235  231  4  4   243  -3.3  266  -11.7  
South Central886  875  11  11   1,003  -11.7  1,020  -13.1  
   Salt242  248  -6  -6   296  -18.2  303  -20.1  
   Nonsalt644  628  16  16   707  -8.9  716  -10.1  
Total2,251  2,169  82  82   2,547  -11.6  2,573  -12.5  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,251 Bcf as of Friday, June 24, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 82 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 296 Bcf less than last year at this time and 322 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,573 Bcf. At 2,251 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 11:16 a.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

  Latest Release    Jun 30, 2022   Actual82B    Forecast74B   Previous74B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 30, 2022 10:3082B74B74B
Jun 23, 2022 10:3074B65B92B
Jun 16, 2022 10:3092B 97B
Jun 09, 2022 10:3097B96B90B
Jun 02, 2022 10:3090B86B80B
May 26, 2022 10:3080B89B89B
By metmike - June 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.
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In Historic Bloodbath, Natural Gas Futures Drop $1-Plus on Storage, Freeport News

 Natural gas futures took one (actually two) on the chin Thursday as a larger-than-expected storage injection and an update regarding the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) outage sent prices tumbling to levels not seen in months. The August Nymex futures contract plummeted $1.074 to $5.424/MMBtu. September lost $1.101 cents to land at $5.392. Spot gas… 

By WxFollower - June 30, 2022, 8:47 p.m.
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Mike, Do you happen to know:

1. How the CDDs were this morning (0Z/6Z) vs yesterday afternoon/evening? 

2. How today's 12Z CDDs were vs today's 0Z/6Z?

 In other words, can any of today's huge price drop be attributed to modeled DD losses?

 TIA

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 10:39 p.m.
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Larry,

The 12z GFS was -11 CDD's vs the previous run and ensemble was -9 CDD's vs the previous run but much of the drop already happened by the time that was out.