KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 9, 2022
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 234.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 395.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 364.2K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 195K; previous 200K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1309000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -34K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1902B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +90B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, June 10, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. May CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.3%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.7%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +8.2%; previous +8.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +5.9%; previous +6.2%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 59.0; previous 59.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 56.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 63.6)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. May Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
Tuesday, June 14, 2022
6:00 AM ET. May NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 93.2)
8:30 AM ET. May PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. June IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.2)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 33.2)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past seven-days.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,388.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,369.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 33,272.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,388.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,369.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 31,395.89.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday while extending last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,207.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average 12,301.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,945.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,207.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,301.11. Second support is May's low crossing at 11,491.25.
The June S&P 500 posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extended last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4220.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4034.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4202.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4220.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4034.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2020 rally crossing at 3894.79.
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June T-bonds closed down 1-06-pts. at 137-26.
June T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 134-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 141-15 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 146-25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 137-16. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.
June T-notes closed down 115 pts. at 118.190.
June T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.085 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.252 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.211. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.211. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.075. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally to a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the April 25th low, monthly resistance crossing at $130.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $123.18. Second resistance crossing at monthly resistance crossing at $130.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.59.
July heating oil posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8977 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.4084. Second resistance is the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.1078. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8977.
July unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8687 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.3260. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8687. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4959.
July Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.118 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.664. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.118. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.607.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.86. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.86 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-June. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.67. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.86. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.
The June Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at $107.94 opens the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $107.94. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $109.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $103.62.
The June British Pound posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2685 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2476 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May high crossing at 1.2667. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2685. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2476. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2156.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02683 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.99485 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04236 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04236. Second resistance is the April 12th high crossing at 1.07960. First support is today's low crossing at 1.02175. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.99485.
The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the April 21st high crossing at 80.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.88. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 80.24. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.37.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 2002-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.078384 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077461. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.078384. First support is today's low crossing at 0.074370. Second support is the 2002-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1830.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $1938.80. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1789.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23,214 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 21.410 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 22.565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.214. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 21.410. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.240.
July copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3042 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.6394 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.6394. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.7687. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3782. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3042.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed up $0.07 1/2-cents at $7.64 1/2.
July corn closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement of 2020-2022 rally crossing at$7.12 1/2. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.74. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.
July wheat closed up $0.03 at $10.74 3/4.
July wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.98 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $9.45 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $11.55.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.29 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $10.65.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09-cents at $12.33 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.80 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.01 3/4 would opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.01 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $11.54 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed up $0.11 3/4 at $17.40.
July soybeans closed higher on Wednesday and spiked to a new contract high before profit taking tempered early-session gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. Closes above today's high crossing at $17.58 would open the door for a possible test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.63 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $17.58. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.63 3/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $16.15 1/4.
July soybean meal closed down $1.80 at $415.60.
July soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $433.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes last-week's decline, May's low crossing at $395.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $433.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is May's low crossing at $395.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $384.10.
July soybean oil closed up 150 pts. at 82.94.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, May's high crossing at 84.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.74 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 76.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 73.75.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.32 at $109.95.
July hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.24 would open the door for additional gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.24. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $121.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.86. Second support is May's low crossing at $97.37.
August cattle closed up $3.40 at $137.53
August cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's rally and closed above the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.55 thereby opening the door for additional gains near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off last-week's low, the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $132.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.75.
August Feeder cattle closed up $3.20 at $175.65.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.52. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 24.49 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.49.
July cocoa close lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at 23.66 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.40 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 18.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 19.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 130.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Dome of death in week 2 has the grains fired up.
the dome was supporting ng, until an explosionn damaged one of our export facilities and ng had the wildest trading day in history. Closing the huge bullish gap higher on Sunday Night and at one point traded over $12,000/contract off the highs of the day and most of the drop came in just over an hour.