KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 14, 2022
6:00 AM ET. May NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 93.2)
8:30 AM ET. May PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. June IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.2)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 33.2)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 288.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 208.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -7.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 709.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.6%)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.4%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.9%)
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -11.6)
Employment Idx (previous 14.0)
New Orders Idx (previous -8.8)
Prices Received (previous 45.6)
10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 69)
10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +2.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.758M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.025M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 218.184M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.812M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 108.984M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.592M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.227M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.715M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 1.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.50)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 1.9%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 2.8%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 2.8%)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. Today's sell off was triggered by investors who are factoring in bearish news regarding the U.S. economy. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's gap and close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,383.19 opens the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 31,395.89. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,255.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,255.71. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 31,117.74. First support is today's low crossing at 31,419.69. Second support is May's low crossing at 31,395.89.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday as it broke out to the downside of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, May's low crossing at 11,491.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average 13,085.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,945.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,085.01. First support is today's low crossing at 11,823.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 11,491.25.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4039.16 signals that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for a test of May's low crossing at 3807.50. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4195.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4195.38. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 4303.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2020 rally crossing at 3894.79. Second support is the May's low crossing at4039.16.
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June T-bonds closed down 1-14pts. at 136-21.
June T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 134-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 141-00 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 141-00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 142-22. First support is today's low crossing at 136-12. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.
June T-notes closed down 1040 pts. at 117.095.
June T-notes closed sharply lower on Friday and posted a new low for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the April-2010 low crossing at 114.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.192 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.310. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at 123.040. First support is today's low crossing at 117.080. Second support is the April-2010 low crossing at 114.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the April 25th low, monthly resistance crossing at $130.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $123.18. Second resistance crossing at monthly resistance crossing at $130.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.37.
July heating oil closed lower on Friday but not before posting a new contract high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9605 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.5135. Second resistance is the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.2230. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9605.
July unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9296 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.3260. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9296. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5404.
July Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's upside reversal unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.118 would confirm that a top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9.664. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 8.016. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.737.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at $105.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.08 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. First resistance is today's high crossing at $104.23. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is May's low crossing at $101.30. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.
The June Euro closed lower on Friday confirming Thursday's huge key reversal down and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $103615 is the next downside target. Closes above May's high crossing at $107.94 opens the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at $107.94. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $109.59. First support is today's low crossing at $105.06. Second support is May's low crossing at $103.62.
The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, May's low crossing at 1.2156 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2657 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2657. Second resistance is the May high crossing at 1.2667. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2303. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2156.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.99485 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03973 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03973. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.05683. First support is today's low crossing at 1.01040. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.99485.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.37 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, the April 21st high crossing at 80.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 79.88. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 80.24. First support is today's low crossing at 78.04. Second support is the May 18th low crossing at 77.53.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower for the sixth-day in a row on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 2002-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.078087 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077144. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.078087. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.074320. Second support is the 2002-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1893.60 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below today's low crossing at $1826.50 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1892.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $1938.80. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1789.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1743.10.
July silver closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 21.410 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.090 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 22.565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.090. First support is today's low crossing at 21.235. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.240.
July copper closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3226 signals that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the May 26th low crossing at 4.2035 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.6394 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.6394. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 4.7687. First support is the May 26th low crossing at 4.2035. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed up a $0.00 1/4-cent at $7.73 1/4.
July corn closed fractionally higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement of 2020-2022 rally crossing at$7.12 1/2. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.75 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.
July wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2 at $10.70 3/4.
July wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.35 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.35 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $9.45 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.08 3/4-cents at $11.62 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.21 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $10.65.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.02 1/2-cents at $12.21 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.74 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.08 1/2 would opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.08 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $11.54 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down $0.23 1/2 at $17.45 1/2.
July soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that the market is vulnerable to a correction in the near-future. Closes above the all-time high crossing at $17.89 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.68 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $17.84. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.68 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $15.78 1/4.
July soybean meal closed up $1.60 at $429.10.
July soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $431.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, May's low crossing at $395.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $431.60. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is May's low crossing at $395.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $384.10.
July soybean oil closed down 189 pts. at 80.74.
July soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 84.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.19 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is June's low crossing at 76.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 73.75.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $0.85 at $105.85.
July hogs closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the May 13th gap crossing at $101.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.52 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.52. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $121.08. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $103.88. Second support is the May 16th gap crossing at $101.30.
August cattle closed down $1.18 at $136.03
August cattle closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off last-week's low, the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.36. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at $132.70.
August Feeder cattle closed down $2.00 at $174.03.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.18. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 24.49 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.39.
July cocoa close lower on Friday and posted a new low for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at 23.66 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.29 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 18.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 19.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed lower due to profit taking ahead of the weekend on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the May 17th high crossing at 151.95 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 130.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks very much tallpine!
Grains and NG will be trading weather next week.
How long will the impressive, rain suppressing heat ridge last and where will it be in week 3......which becomes week 2 next week, when the models have better predictive skill?
There WILL be an impressive heat ridge/dome, likely from La Nina driven forcing.
The location determines how bullish or not.
Some recent model runs have a trough in the Northeast and the heat ridge retrograding west to the Plains/Midwest.
This would be bearish ng but potentially very bullish corn/beans.