KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 17, 2022
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.2%; previous 79.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.8)
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. May State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, June 20, 2022
N/A U.S.: Juneteenth observed. Financial markets closed
Tuesday, June 21, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.47)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.48)
10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.61M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.2)
Median Price (USD) (previous 391200)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,121.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,121.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,764.23. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11,068.50. Second support is the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 3896.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3898.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3976.12. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3642.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-11. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 131-01. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
September T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.178 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.198. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.019. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.075. Second support is the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:July crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off the April 25th low, monthly resistance crossing at $130.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $130.50. First support is June's low crossing at $111.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.42.
July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1569 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.6444. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1569. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8069.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6320 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.0804 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $4.3260. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6320. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.4236.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 6.521 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.484 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.484. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.664. First support is May's low crossing at 6.521. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.980.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.408 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $105.565. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.694. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.408.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07157 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07157. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2457 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2457. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2577. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's huge rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03991 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends Thursday's rally, May's high crossing at 1.05470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02559 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.05470. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.00235. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.00170.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at $76.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.41. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at $76.89. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076785 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076785. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077819. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.074210. Second support is the 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1881.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off Monday's high, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1850.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1881.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.
July silver was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.833 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $20.420 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $22.565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.762. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $20.845. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.420.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.0370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3059 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3059. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3880. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.0410. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $7.58 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.64 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2.
July wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.05 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.05 3/4. Second resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $11.70 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $9.67 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.52. First support is June's low crossing at $11.12 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.65.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June's low crossing at $11.90 would renew the decline off May's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.37 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is June's low crossing at $11.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.21 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.79 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at $17.84 would open the door for a test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First resistance is June's high crossing at $17.84. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.79 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $15.78.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 7th low crossing at $404.00 or above the May 31st high crossing at $436.50 are needed to mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $428.50. Second resistance is the May 31st high crossing at $436.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June 7th low crossing at $404.00. Second support is May's low crossing at $395.00.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the May 16th high crossing at 84.64 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 87.65. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is June's low crossing at 76.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $1.38 at $109.65.
July hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.67 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, the May 13th gap crossing at $101.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.67. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $114.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $103.53. Second support is the May 16th gap crossing at $101.30.
August cattle closed down $0.48 at $136.32
August cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends Wednesday's rally, the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $132.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is Monday's low crossing at $132.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.98 at $171.30.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.16. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 23.57 would temper the bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $23.57. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.20. First support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.23.
July cocoa close unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 18.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 19.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 130.25 is the next downside target. If July renews this month's rally, the May 17th high crossing at 151.95 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Long weekend coming up because of the new Federal Holiday.