Should start lower because of the much cooler temps in the forecast (after the next few days) vs the Friday close as mentioned yesterday.
Not a great deal of rain but at least as much as we had Friday and close to average in half the places.
Here's all the weather:
Gap lower. Just moderate size.
CZ and SX/new crop now have higher volume than the front months/old crop.
ACROSS THE ROAD FROM ME... THE CORN IS 6-7" TALL..THE BEANS ARE 2" TALL. BOTH LOOK GREAT!
MAYBE, IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS, WE'LL HAVE 1/4" RAIN. TEN DAY LOCAL TEMP'S = UPPER 80'S - UPPER 90'S,
EXCEPT FOR 2 DAYS IN THE LOW 80'S.
Thanks much Jean!
My 2 cents, I was driving around Amish country here in Ohio over the weekend and everything looks pretty good. Some corn approaching knee high+
My wife commented this weekend, like she often does and said "corn will be higher than knee high by the 4th of July this year"
And I explained, like I usually do that corn around here should be knee high by the 4th of JUNE.
If it's only knee high on the 4th of July along the Ohio River......it's likely to be a potential disaster!
Golfed last night. All the ponds on the course are down about 2-3 feet already. It's been dry here. Had threatening looking clouds for a day, but not a drop fell (at least in my area of NE Ohio) and it all blew over.
You aren't even in one of the drier spots!
Here's all the weather:
More bullish than bearish and eventually, should provide more support for C/S.
The GFS and Canadian ensembles were split exactly at the end of 2 weeks. Half were bullish/very bullish, half were bearish/neutral.
This type of pattern is unlikely to morph into being very bearish.
Models have around 2 inches of rain, mainly week 2 in Iowa which is more bearish than I thought earlier.
another 30 dn for corn and 50 dn for beans. Seems like really excessive sell off the last few days this early with a late planted crop and lots of acres left unplanted
I'm thinking that the Funds want out. and the door isn't big enough
The last 6z GFS ensemble had 2+ inches of rain across almost the entire Upper Midwest north and west of around Peoria IL and 3 inches in parts of MN.
Most of this is week 2 rain.
So the 8-14 day this afternoon is probably going to be wet again.
24 hours ago, I didn't think the pattern would morph wetter like this.
However, the heat will still be on and areas that don't get rain will be hurting.
thought Snodgrass had those rains as scattered T-storms around the periphery of this deep dome. Those kind of rains are not usually soaking 2inchers over several hours...more like here and gone with wind, hail and heavy rain for a brief time. At any rate our forecast only has a chance for Sunday and not much else. The way this crop went in the ground it needs a soaker pretty quick
The Summer forecast has been very hot and dry forever and now the GFS ensemble is suggesting above average rains in week 2.
Compared to expectations (including mine) this is very bearish.
The GFS has the most rain by far and other models not as much. Places in IN and OH don't get much rain though, even on the GFS.
The gaps lower from Monday evening are open and now signal extremely bearish downside breakaway gaps.
I guess I didnt stay up late enough to get the forecast change as you posted 11pmish.
I DO believe today is a low cycle day
Get all the weather here:
Models the last 24 hours have shifted the heat ridge farther southwest and allowed some NW type flow(ring of fire) activity in the Midwest, especially Upper Midwest so week 2 rains are not fairly robust(not much Eastern Cornbelt). This is MORE rain than I was expecting earlier this week.
This is the wettest model, the last 6z GFS ensemble. Light blue is 2 inches...mostly week 2.
NWS extended guidance will have alot of rain in it this afternoon!
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What is likelihood model becoming drier?
Pretty good chance, actually tjc.
It got much wetter than I was expecting and I'm dialing that into everything/my expectations, not trying to insist my earlier, drier forecast is right and the models are wrong(like some people might do).
But the pattern we have coming up can often be pretty dry because we have ridging from an upper level high that is still dominating. The models think there will an active "ring of fire" type set up....especially the GFS which is by far the wettest.
The other thing is that there will be decent heat. That means increased evaporation and greater moisture requirements.
If July was 5 degrees above average for instance vs 5 degrees below average, you'd might need an extra 2 inches of rain to make up for the heat.
Cool and dry is almost the same as hot and wet for, especially the corn crop.
In August, hot and wet is WORSE than cool and dry(if there's some rain).
Heat fill becomes a huge issue, like in 2010 when its hot/wet. Of course that doesn't show up with crop conditions. The plants look great but the hidden kernels don't fill as much because they fill too fast.
Heat fill especially shows up after harvest when you get to see/measure the kernels and weights.
More wonderful insight on heat fill here:
10 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2021, 12:01 p.m.
Heat fill for corn August 22, 2021
13 responses |
Started by metmike - Aug. 22, 2021, 8:31 p.m.
Heatfill coming up for corn
Started by metmike - June 25, 2020, 7
Heat Fill for corn
Started by metmike - Aug. 14, 2019, 5:51 p.m.
I've posted my heat fill explanation tons of times here.