Great to read you again rockitck!
This person is talking about what the market knew in the Spring, when it dialed risk premium into the price for the hot/dry Summer that's been expected for several months because of the La Nina.
Anything close to average weather and prices will continue to drop.
These are the places that have developed significant dryness:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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June 23 , 2022-update
U.S. Drought Monitor
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Previous week, June 16, 2022 release below:
Latest map below, June 23......DROUGHT EXPANSION!
This is the forecast:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
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Temperature Probability | |||||||||
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2 week rain totals from the just out 18z GFS ensemble mean.
Light blue is 2 inches. There will be decent heat that evaporates a bit more than usual.
Crop ratings will drop tomorrow on the USDA crop report without a doubt. Question is....where and how much?
The spots that got no rain the last week will drop. Spots with no rain the last 2 weeks will drop the most because there was also significant heat in those places.
Based on the maps below, the crop ratings will drop in NE, w.IA, IN, MO, TX, OK, AR, LA, TN, KY, MS, possibly AL, GE, NC, SC, OH and s.MN.
TX/OK/MO and points eastward will have the biggest drops.
Rains the last 7 days below:
Rains the last 14 days below:
Rains the last 30 days below:
Add in this heat, along with the dry weather and the soils have dried quickly, with flash drought in some spots.
Temperatures the last 7 days below:
Temperatures the last 14 days below:
Temperatures the last 30 days below:
Good to hear from u 2 Met Mike. Yes I haven't been around much, got some minor health issues going on and hopeful will get resolved soon. Anyway, mostly been trading ETF's. Think I liked my account better when I traded commodity options. Downloaded a bunch of Wycoff charts and making a binder to study chart patterns. I'm ah hoping that will help me get a better look at what's happening. I'll be back! Hope u doing well, good work w/the website and all u do! Cheers, David
