INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 27, 2022, 7:50 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, June 27, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                        

 

10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 99.3)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.9%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -9.1%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous -7.3)

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 18.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,524.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,597.33 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this year's decline, the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,524.56. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,597.33. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.  



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low and is testing resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 3940.43. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4056.16. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3780.72 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3940.43. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4056.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3780.72. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137-30 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 141-21. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-06 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137-30. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 141-21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-06. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.



September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.079 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound and possible test of May's high crossing at 120.195. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.049 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.079. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.049. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.075. Third support is the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at $95.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.19. First support is May's low crossing at $95.47. Second support is April's low crossing at $91.66.



August heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $4.0924 would mark a potential downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $4.4898. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $4.0924. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7987.



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8577 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5734 would open the door for a larger-degree decline and possible test of the May 19th low crossing at 3.2904. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8577. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.1237. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5734. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.2904.    



August Henry natural gas was slightly lower in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.000 Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.881. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947. Second support is the March 30th low crossing at 5.385.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target.First resistance is June's high crossing at $105.565. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.323. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.918.  



The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06803 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06803. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. First support is June's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.  



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to higher signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2384 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2384. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2498. First support is June's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 1.05470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03346 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.05470. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03346. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off June's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.22. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is May's low crossing at $76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075564 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075564. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077168. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073580. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1868.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1868.60. Second is June's high crossing at $1882.50. First support is June's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.



July silver was higher overnight as it extended the rebound off last-Friday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.360 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $20.420 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.360. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 23.102. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $20.545. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.420. 



July copper was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1914 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.9871. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1913. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2491.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight and poised to extend the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.78 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.00. Second resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.33. Second support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2.   



July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.39 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.02 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.39 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.73. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.07.  



July Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $9.08 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.17 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.76 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.17 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.91. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.08.



July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.86 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.86 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.76. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $10.04. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $15.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.94. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $15.83. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.

 

July soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off June's low, the April 21st high crossing at $467.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $422.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $441.10. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $422.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June 7th low crossing at $404.00. 



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 65.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.26. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 67.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 65.16.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $3.15 at $106.83. 



August hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $98.65 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high  crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at $111.05. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is June's low crossing at $101.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $98.65. 



August cattle closed down $0.55 at $133.32 



August cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $132.45 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $129.97. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $132.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.   



August Feeder cattle closed down $2.48 at $172.37. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.44. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends today's decline, June's low crossing at 21.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 23.71 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is June's low crossing at 21.90. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10.                    



September cocoa close slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.06 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. 



October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.                    



October cotton closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 97.77 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's gap crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - June 27, 2022, 11:21 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Crop ratings will drop this afternoon with high confidence. Extended not quite as hot and has decent rain for many places.........but not enough for others and still above average temps.

So BULLISH but not AS bullish as some previous weather forecasts. Seasonals are strongly down this time of year.

July natural gas expires tomorrow......often features a spike ahead of expiration.