The first NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 advisory was just issued at 5PM. This one is currently ~700 miles ESE of the Windward Islands moving WNW. Models and the forecast have this landfalling in Nicaragua on Saturday. Hopefully this will not be another disastrous freshwater flooding event for western Honduras and Guatemala like Eta and Iota were in November of 2020. Each of those by themselves resulted in by far the worst river based flooding in those areas since Mitch of 1998 and thus resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis with millions affected along with numerous refugees. This is one of the primary causes of US/Mexican border encounters increasing sharply starting in early 2021. The thinking right now is for it to be moving fast enough to not cause flooding anywhere near as bad as the 2020 storms. It is projected to move 2-3 times as fast as Eta/Iota. It being July instead of November may be a climo reason for that.
Thanks much Larry, keep us posted. I hadn't been watching the tropics at all.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also exhibits some banding features. However, reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined center of circulation at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this afternoon. The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days. However, interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter area. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 9.8N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 57.5W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Thanks Larry!
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 ...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 59.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some banding features over the northern portion of the system. Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. However interaction with land, including low-level inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the global models suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of the system through this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track remains about the same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands, northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC $$ Forecaster Pasch
Readers can get all the updates of that advisory by going here and hitting the red X in this case:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
That will get you to this screen where you have lots of choices, a couple of which, Larry has been kind enough to copy for us.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
Thanks, Mike!
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the various surface observations. The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr. Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point. Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west motion may occur for a time while the system is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track is lies close to the various consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 The system has changed little in organization today, and in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time. The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt. There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther south after 36 hours or so. Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence of the South American land mass. The system is expected to approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the eastern North Pacific basin. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
This storm will likely not become an Atlantic hurricane but instead, could become an Atlantic tropical storm with a name........cross Central America and go into the E. Pacific and become a hurricane with a NEW name!
Readers can get updates here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
That will get you to this screen where you have lots of choices, a couple of which, Larry has been kind enough to copy for us.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
![[Key Messages]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_key_messages+png/145301_key_messages_sm.png)
Mike said:
"This storm will likely not become an Atlantic hurricane but instead, could become an Atlantic tropical storm with a name........cross Central America and go into the E. Pacific and become a hurricane with a NEW name!"
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Mike,
Thanks for the update. Until just a little while ago, I thought the same thing...that it would get a new name if it were to crossover intact. But I just found out that the same name would remain if it does first get named in the Atlantic basin. Otto of 2016 did just that. I hadn't realized that or forgot:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic–Pacific_crossover_hurricanes#
Also, PTC 2 of 2022 has set a new record high # of advisories (12) with it still not being named. The old record was the 10 of PTC 1 of 2022. To be fair though, PTCs go back only a few years.
Fascinating Larry, Thanks a ton!
