KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Annual U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)
9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.5%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +3.1%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +21.5%; previous +21.2%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +20.6%)
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -9)
Shipments Idx (previous -14)
10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 101.1; previous 106.4)
Expectation Idx (previous 77.5)
Present Situation Idx (previous 149.6)
1:00 PM ET. May Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,484.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,658.05 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this year's decline, the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,484.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,658.05. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low and is testing resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 3927.44. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4046.32. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3795.45 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3927.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4046.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3795.43. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137-26 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 141-21. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137-26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 141-21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-13. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.059 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound and possible test of May's high crossing at 120.195. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.084 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.059. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.084. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.075.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:August crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at $95.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.24. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $120.88. First support is June's low crossing at $101.53. Second support is May's low crossing at $95.47. Third support is April's low crossing at $91.66.
August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $4.0924 would mark a potential downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August renews the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $4.4898. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $4.0924. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8116.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8577 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5837 would open the door for a larger-degree decline and possible test of the May 19th low crossing at 3.2904. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8577. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.1237. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5837. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.2904.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.790 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.827 Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.790. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947. Second support is the March 30th low crossing at 5.385.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.979 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target.First resistance is June's high crossing at $105.565. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.563. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.979.
The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06929 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06929. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. First support is June's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2366 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2366. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2481. First support is June's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03595 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.05635. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03595. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.19. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is May's low crossing at $76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075297 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075297. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077046. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073580. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1865.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1865.20. Second is June's high crossing at $1882.50. First support is June's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.
July silver was higher overnight and the mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.345 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at $20.420 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.345. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 23.130. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $20.545. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.420.
July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1671 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.9481. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1671. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2491.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.00. Second resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.31. Second support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.73. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.07.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $9.08 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.03 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.56 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.03 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $9.71 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.08.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.24 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.72. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $9.38 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.90 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $15.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.90 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $15.83. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.
July soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the April 21st high crossing at $467.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $423.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $447.70. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $423.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June 7th low crossing at $404.00.
July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 65.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.92. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 67.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 65.16.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $1.98 at $104.80.
August hogs closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $98.65 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at $111.05. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is June's low crossing at $101.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $98.65.
August cattle closed down $0.08 at $133.30
August cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $132.45 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $129.97. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.14 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $132.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $174.20.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.44. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends today's decline, June's low crossing at 21.90 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 23.71 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is June's low crossing at 21.90. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10.
September cocoa close lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off last-week's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.01 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Monday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 97.77 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's gap crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!
C and S deteriorated in yesterdays report: