KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +4.7%; previous +4.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.4%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous -3.7%)
9:45 AM ET. July Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 55.0; previous 56.0)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 51.1; previous 50.0)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 47.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 53.8)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Monday, August 1, 2022
9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.7)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 53.0)
Prices Idx (previous 78.5)
Employment Idx (previous 47.3)
Inventories (previous 56.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 49.2)
Production Idx (previous 54.9)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -0.1%)
Residential Construction
11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 12,948.00. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,070.28. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3912.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.68. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-12.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.080. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.032. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.119.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.21. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends July's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7965 would confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1874 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7965. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $3.9461. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 3.1972 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4210. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.1972. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $3.3229. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.4586.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish with additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.557 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.598 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.419. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.598. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.065. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.557.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it has renewed the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have become oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.695 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $107.300 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.410. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.694.
The September Euro was higher overnight and the high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04818. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the July 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2241 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2007 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2241. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the June 29th high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03586 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.05625. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 28th high crossing at $78.02 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $77.27. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight and trading above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075097 as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have become overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075097 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-August. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073497 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.075745. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.076118. First support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1816.00 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average $1740.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1816.00. Second is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at $1846.60. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1727.00. Second support is July's low crossing at $1696.10.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $20.599 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $20.599. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 21.575. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the July 7th high crossing at 3.5800 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 3.5800. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $8.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.34 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.53 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. Second resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.73 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $436.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $398.00 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $430.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $436.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $380.80. Second support is July's low crossing at $375.30.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.37. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.58. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42.
Thanks much tallpine.
No changes to the weather. Can you tell that it's bullish (-:
Especially for the beans.
Crude being up sharply is helping too.