Stock Market Action
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Started by joj - Aug. 3, 2022, 8:27 a.m.

Some of the talking heads are seeing the recent stock market rally as a result of a perceived message about the Fed signaling a pivot in rate policy.   I don't think Powell gave any such signal.  "Data dependent" is a phrase he uses in every press briefing.   Some talking heads are asking questions like "Did the market get it wrong?".  The market is almost never wrong.  Perhaps the market had just priced in a lot of bad news from January to July and was/is primed for a rally.

Even if we are entering some poor returning years for the stock market we could be in for a rip your face off bear market rally.  The newsletter I read shows small option traders are not participating (believing) this rally.  They are generally a good fade.

By cutworm - Aug. 3, 2022, 11:51 a.m.
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food for thought! Thanks 

By becker - Aug. 3, 2022, 2:16 p.m.
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The rally is because traders are on summer vacation.  Gov't and fed policy combined have badly distorted markets since covid began. An uncharted mess as it stands now imho.

Here is a market blog letter:

What blog/letter do you follow?

By cutworm - Aug. 3, 2022, 2:46 p.m.
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I do not fallow any letters. I prefer to make my own mistakes.

By wglassfo - Aug. 3, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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I have a theory that most may not think holds water

1st: buy stks fully paid for. No margin calls

2nd: Look for dividend stks. I find most try to pay the dividend even at a loss on the P/L

3: In Canada our bank stks seem to be more stable than USA banks. We may not be perfect but most banks pay dividends. This is info a person can find before making a decision to buy

4: Don't let a draw down on your portfolio scare you into selling. I find a person can almost never out guess stks. They will rip your face off at a lose only to come back a yr or two later at least as high or higher. I also use this for grain marketing. As of now CBOT has been terrible for grains. But watch the basis. I know you can't do this with stks but basis tells you if the end user wants your products. Our corn basis is currently $2.00 plus. Some body wants corn. Texas is more than $2.00

5: Watch the price of puts and calls if such is available for your stk. That tells you a lot about market price, even if the actual price differs a lot. Eventually the price will change. Hopefully it is good for you but don't try to out guess any stk market.

Remember when Chrysler was 5.00 a share. The price will change and most do not go Bk if blue chip stks. In Canada one should avoid the Vancouver exchange like the plague. At the worst[not talking Vancouver exchange] if close to BK you will see a merger which is usually for the best.

6: Ignore the Fed. Long term they do very little to influence stks. Bonds are a different animal and I avoid bonds. I simply can't keep up to the Fed and the bond market

I have nothing for commodities or currencies and this post is not trading advice. Do your own due diligence and not what I may post. Canadian stks are a different animal than american stks from what I can see. I know nothing about american stks

I own bank stks, utilities, gold mining shares, physical gold and silver and other stks that I forget but all Canadian stks. Supposedly some body bought all the american silver coins plus all the mint can produce for some weeks to come. But only american silver coins, and junk silver, from every american wholesaler. London was not involved. No bars etc. Supposedly 25 million, from american wholesalers only, which is not a very large coin float, all things considered, if true. May not be true as this came from Zero Hedge some time ago. Might be fake news for all I know

Just rambling along, with what I do and read.

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2022, 3:38 p.m.
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thanks for the great posts!

By joj - Aug. 3, 2022, 4:02 p.m.
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I read

They have dozens of indicators which are made up mostly of contrarian indicators and valuation indicators.