Risk/ benefit info from Germany
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Started by cutworm - Aug. 3, 2022, 12:59 p.m.

Vaccine adverse events, German data - YouTube

172,062,925 doses

296,233 adverse events reported

Overall rate of adverse events .17% 0r 17/1,000

Serious rate of adverse events 2/10,000

" These could be just Temporal Colorations"   " It does not demonstrate causality"

has the Risk / Benefit analysis changed???? omicron much less serious infection for most, not all people

Comments
By wglassfo - Aug. 3, 2022, 2:03 p.m.
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I am triple vaxxed with a booster and so is my wife and close family

Our family has all had some kind of cough, sore throat, hoarse voice etc.

But the effects were very mild and nobody missed a day of work around the farm

Except me. I had to cut the grass back when we had some rain, but now I just cut weeds

All I had was hoarse voice one time

Nothing serious and no serious effects I could say was affecting me or the family

Not sure this adds to your post but just some info

By cutworm - Aug. 3, 2022, 2:43 p.m.
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With health problems the risk benefit would probably lean more toward vaccination. Risk/reward needs to be addressed on an individual basis, not on a one size fits all.

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2022, 4:16 p.m.
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Thanks cutworm for some wonderful data!


Several things to consider that have changed greatly in 2 years.

1. At the top is the fact that we have 2 drugs (that are called Paxlovid) that are extremely effective at treating COVID. Thanks to the government, they are free! This is enormously reducing deaths. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85199/

2. We have massive free, home tests that can diagnose COVID, immediately at home.

3. Previous vaccines have given people a much stronger immune response after the get COVID. They were never intended to prevent COVID, which is still extremely contagious to everyone but they arm your immune system to fight COVID much earlier and with more gusto.

4. This study showed a "temporal" correlation which is NOT causation and you noted that exactly, cutworm! It's all the reported reactions..FROM the vaccine and also reactions NOT from the vaccine. There also would have been reactions NOT reported, though the serious ones are more likely to be reported.

5. Speaking of deaths, maybe its in there but he doesn't mention it.

6. The comparison: 1 out of 5,000 had a serious adverse affect, from the vaccine or something else. Before the vaccine, 2 out of 100 people were dying that got COVID.....25 people out of 5,000. So there was a 25 times higher rate of DYING from COVID compared to an adverse reaction after the COVID vaccine if every reaction was from the vaccine.

There must have been SOME people that died afterwards. Maybe I missed the data. Is it there cutworm?

Thanks again.......great stuff.

I agree that things have changed. And the push to get vaccinated messages have changed too........much less aggressive and urgent like it had been from my observations.

Do you notice the same thing?

The Paxlovid was a wonderful gift from heaven that massively stops COVID from multiplying. The key is to get it ASAP, before COVID has the chance to multiply. Having the COVID tests at home allow one to do that. 

An  interesting thing is that we didn't have to prove anything. I could have made everything up on the phone and the nurse would have called it in for us(after she reviewed my wife's medical records in her computer to verify no kidney issues). I was the only one that saw the positive test. They didn't ask for an image. 

However, each healthcare network is managing this completely different. My brother in laws health network required him to see his doctor to get Paxlovid.......and it was a Sunday. 

It's worth posting a 2nd time:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85199/




By cutworm - Aug. 3, 2022, 7:57 p.m.
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5. Speaking of deaths, maybe its in there but he doesn't mention it.

There was no mention of deaths in this report

6. The comparison: 1 out of 5,000 had a serious adverse affect, from the vaccine or something else. Before the vaccine, 2 out of 100 people were dying that got COVID.....25 people out of 5,000. So there was a 25 times higher rate of DYING from COVID compared to an adverse reaction after the COVID vaccine if every reaction was from the vaccine.

I believe the report was 1 out of 5000 doses not 5000 people. If the mean is 2 doses / person, then 1 out of 2500. if the mean is 3 doses then 1 out of 1667.... The data does not tell us the mean. I would assume that some who had a severe event would not get an additional dose. 

I believe omicron is less deadly than Alpha and Delta. Would you agree?

Risk/Reward

Those with health problems, older ect. have more risk from the disease. Those younger and in good health have much less risk. So the decision to vaccinate should be made on an individual basis considering all the data.

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2022, 9:45 p.m.
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Thanks cutworm!

"I believe the report was 1 out of 5000 doses not 5000 people. If the mean is 2 doses / person, then 1 out of 2500."

I thought that was assumed and the reactions were STRONGER to the first dose vs the 2nd dose. Some people have had 3 and more doses too but the reactions are less each time to boosters.

Then also, 2 out of 100 dying from COVID was also meant for each occurrence of COVID.

My 33 year old son got mild COVID in Sept. 2020 then caught it again at a Thanksgiving 2020 celebration at the in laws and had a 102 fever for a week and slept 20+ hours a day. 

His work was suspicious and the Toyota doctor told him that he never heard of somebody getting COVID twice.

He had it for the 3rd time this past Spring. Not as sick that time but he also got a vaccination shot.


I agree strongly that severe cases and fatalities are not anything like before we had the vaccines.

It's hard to know how much of the impacting variables to attribute this too.

1. With certainty, most of the population has some immunity which was not there 2 years ago.

2. For sure, treatments are doing a much better job. At first, infusions helped, now Paxlovid is a wonder drug and extremely effective in most cases.

3. Is the latest version that much weaker? I would guess that it might be but the 2 factors above could be responsible for almost the entire difference.

4. It's apparently more contagious or maybe has evolved to keep vaccines from protecting as much from the initial infection but they are still good at lessening severe infections and death.


Are vaccinations less important? 

With Paxlovid around, for sure that's true for the most vulnerable. Before, Paxlovid and vaccinations, somebody getting COVID with  major health issues or a compromised immune system and especially elderly had very elevated chances of dying.

Effective, much faster testing and quickly treating with Paxlovid has saved an amazing number of vulnerable lives. Vaccinations have saved even more........millions of lives. 

One can say that the risks are LESS than before but that's a relative statement.

Really big numbers that are not quite  as big, can still be big numbers.

The item that has caused the most success so far is vaccinations. I realize that a huge portion of the republicans who were anti COVID vaxx before and looking for any reasons to not take the vaxx then,  will be even more anti VAXX now with this additional reason, now that the risk of death has clearly dropped.

However, in many health care systems(as of 2 months ago-but it could have changed) Paxlovid was only authorized for:

1. People over 65

2. Compromised immune system

3. Chronic severe health issue

4. 55+ and NOT vaccinated.

As of early June, with our health care system a 54 year old in good health could NOT get Paxlovid because they only had enough to go around for those with extremely high risks.

In essence, I believe that would put that 54 year old at greater risk for dying than the others at higher risk and getting Paxlovid.

When you get down to 24 years old for instance, the risk of dying from COVID is very small so the benefits from Paxlovid would be tiny. 

So the rationale that if you're young and healthy you don't need to be vaccinated is still the same one as before.

However....and this has been beaten to death that young, healthy people getting COVID spread it to others that are more vulnerable.

Some of those more vulnerable will not take early actions and get on Paxlovid right away for a variety of reasons, including the lack of being medically smart and seeking prompt attention. People neglecting their health in many ways will often neglect COVID treatments in similar fashion.

It's their own fault? What if the reason is that they're poor or uneducated? 

I realize this contradicts what people claim they have a right to decide what to do with their body........even if they put other more vulnerable people at risk. 

Ironically, most of the same people don't think a woman has a right to make decisions about her body if it affects another vulnerable life........the unborn baby........the complete opposite position of NOT protecting vulnerable people from the risk of death by simply  getting themselves vaccinated.

Getting vaccinated still has a very low risk of severe reactions and almost no risk of death. 



By metmike - Aug. 3, 2022, 9:56 p.m.
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You stated:

"With health problems the risk benefit would probably lean more toward vaccination"

Lean???

How about by 1,000 times (several orders of magnitude) in favor of getting vaccinated.

Many thousands of times more people died from COVID because they were not vaccinated  than from being vaccinated.

It ain't even close. 



90,000 US COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented          

                         

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/80126/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73407/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75252/#75261


By metmike - Aug. 3, 2022, 10:03 p.m.
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Here are more recent COVID discussions for further reading.

Great topic to discuss, cutworm, thanks!


What is even going on with Paxlovid?

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/07/biden-paxlovid-covid-drug-rebound-infections/671009/


Should Young and Healthy Patients Take Paxlovid?      

— The antiviral has not been shown to be valuable in this population

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/99428


Do Healthy Young People Need the COVID-19 Vaccine?

https://www.healthychildren.org/English/health-issues/conditions/COVID-19/Pages/Heres-why-healthy-young-people-need-the-COVID-19-vaccine.aspx


Temporal relationship of myocarditis and pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination: A pragmatic approach      

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35436559/


The pandemic virus is slowly mutating. But is it getting more dangerous?

https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous


Tons of great articles here:

The latest on the coronavirus

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/