INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 11, 2022, 8:10 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, August 11, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 260K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1416000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +48K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July PPI

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 314.6K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 399.6K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 249.9K)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2457B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +41B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, August 12, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.4%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 51.1)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 47.3)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 57.1)'

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 13,812.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,762.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,482.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 13,812.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,762.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,261.19.



The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4352.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 4052.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4352.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4052.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3951.59.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 140-19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 151-28. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 140-19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-27.



September T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.142 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 122.020. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 119.075. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.142.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.67. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $87.01. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.



September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4613 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the April low crossing at $2.9426 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4613. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7529. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.1424. Second support is March's low crossing at $2.9426.



September unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends the four-day rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $3.1427 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the March-2022 low crossing at $2.6308 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $3.2492. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $3.3229. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.7575. Second support is the March-2022 low crossing at $2.6308.



September Henry natural gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.472 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.419. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.598. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.472. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at 6.351.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight trading as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high,the June 16th low crossing at $103.200 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 27th high crossing at $107.300 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 27thhigh crossing at $107.300. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. First support is the June 16th low crossing at $103.200. Second support is the May 30th low crossing at $101.075.



The September Euro was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.03965. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02358 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.03965. Second resistance is the June 27th high crossing at $1.06785. First support is the July 27th low crossing at $1.01345. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000.



The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2096 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2710. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2096. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.08120 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03946 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.06775. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.08120. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03946. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650.  

 

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 76.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $78.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $76.99. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.078281 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074182 would open the door for a larger-degree near-term. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.076118. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.078281. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074182. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at $1848.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $1766.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1824.60. Second is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at $1848.00. First support is he 20-day moving average $1766.30. Second support is July's low crossing at $1727.00.



September silver was lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 21.575 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.522 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $20.830. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 21.575. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.522. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010. 



September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7325 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4569 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7325. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4569. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Trading is likely to be subdued ahead of the release of the August supply-demand and crop size estimate report due out later today. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.40 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th gap crossing at $5.84 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.40 1/2. First support is the July 26th gap crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4.    



September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.96. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.  



September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $9.15 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.62 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.12 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.64 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the July 29th high crossing at $14.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.88 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $14.89. Second resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. First support is the July 26th gap crossing at $13.49 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the July 22nd low, March's high crossing at $436.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low would renew the decline off July's high while opening the door for a test of the July 22nd low crossing at $380.80. First resistance is July's high crossing at $431.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $436.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $395.50. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at $380.80.  



December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the June 29th high crossing at 67.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.40. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.30. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42.    


Comments
By metmike - Aug. 11, 2022, 10:14 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.

GFS site is down this morning.


USDA report on Friday is the biggest item for the rest of the week and not weather.