iowa election futures market
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Started by bear - Aug. 19, 2022, 4:16 p.m.

the pubs chance of taking the house are staying up there.  

but their chance of taking the senate continue to decline.

looking worse for the pubs.   i suspect that their odds are slipping because trump has backed some questionable candidates.  

in the big picture, if there is gridlock, there will be less damage to the country.  

what does this mean for markets?  after 2022, there will be fewer huge spending bills, and more threats of government shutdowns.  

By WxFollower - Aug. 19, 2022, 6:49 p.m.
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 From what I've read, it appears that overturning Roe vs Wade has hurt the Rs by causing some women to go from R to D.

By bear - Aug. 19, 2022, 10:09 p.m.
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yeh, Wx, that could be part of it.  some pubs go to the extreme on their anti-abortion position.  they do not seem to understand that most the public is somewhere in the moderate middle on this issue.  

it could also partly be the rise in stocks the last month or so.  wealth effect,.. people feel less negative about those in power when the markets are rising.

i find it interesting that it seems to be only one chamber of congress that is seeing this drop for the pubs.  

here is my prognosis... if the market stays up, then the pubs will probably only win one chamber.

on the other hand... if the market drops hard for the next 2 months, then it will be more likely that the pubs will win both chambers.