Pro Farmer crop tour August 22-25 2022
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Started by metmike - Aug. 22, 2022, 4:56 p.m.

Crop Tour Methodology

metmike: I'll try to have the results every day.

In this age, tweets and messages from those on the tour get out all day long, which probably helped the market today.

By metmike - Aug. 22, 2022, 5:01 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 22, 2022, 6:12 p.m.
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If you look at the historical difference of the tour vs the USDA's awful!

How can they average 14.5 bu. too high each year in NE for a 20 year period?

Answer: Because they are just tracking across an extremely tiny portion of those states.

But they take the exact same route each year, so comparing that very tiny part of the state with previous years is relevant to that tiny portion of the state.

May be an image of text that says 'Historical Difference Tour Yield Vs. USDA Final (avg. since 2001) Ohio ADD Indiana ADD Illinois ADD lowa ADD Nebraska ADD Minnesota SUB S. Dakota SUB 7-State SUB 4.5 bu. 3.0 bu. 2.6 bu. 5.8 bน. 14.5 ou. 7.4 bu. 6.1 bu. 6.3 bu.'

May be an image of text that says 'South Dakota S.D. Tour USDA Final 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022'

May be an image of text that says '200 Ohio 180 160 140- 120 Ohio Tour USDA Final 2002 2006 2008 2010 2004 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022'

May be an image of 1 person and text that says 'The best analysis of this year's data will be to compare state-by-state results to ast year's Tour, with close attention to the percentage changes Also, apply the historical difference for each state! We know the yield calculated during Crop Tour will be different than USDA's final yield for each state. Fortunately we know by how much on average. Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor PronfFarmer Pronal CROP TOUR'

May be an image of map and text

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2022, 2:13 p.m.
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#Corn yield samples from #pftour22 in Ohio average 174.17 bu/acre, down 6% from last year but 3% above the 3yr tour average. Pods for #soybeans at 1131.64 in a 3x3' plot, down 5% from 2021's tour but up 9% from the 3yr avg (2019 was terrible at 764).

By metmike - Aug. 23, 2022, 2:14 p.m.
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South Dakota #corn yields averaged 118.45 bu/acre on #pftour22, easily the tour's worst since 2012 (which was WAY worse at 74.3). Pod counts for #soybeans a 3-yr low at 871.4 in a 3x3' plot. Tour pods in 2012 were 585. #pftour22

By metmike - Aug. 24, 2022, 12:59 a.m.
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Indiana #corn yields and pod counts for #soybeans were #pftour22's lowest since 2019, but the 2019 tour found much lower numbers. Corn averaged 177.85 bu/acre, down 8% from last year, and pod counts were 6% below last year.




#Pftour22 #corn yield samples in Nebraska averaged 158.53 bu/acre, the tour's lowest since 2013. Pod counts for #soybeans lowest since 2012 (but 19% above it). Corn yield & pod counts both down 13% from last year.


metmike: These bullish numbers/reports from Pro Farmer is causing a huge price increase this week. 

By wglassfo - Aug. 24, 2022, 5:36 p.m.
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My average selling  price for NC June/July and Aug corn is 894 CAD today

I have not sold any NC corn

Sorry my old lap top will not put a decimal between 8 and 9 in above price

That is 8 dollars and 94 cents per bu

I have zero sold as I think the price will go higher

9 dollars and 50 cent average selling price [CAD] is my 1st goal  That price might get my attention for small upward incremental sales

At 10 dollars I will be completely sold out of NC except for the sweepings on the bin floor

Would you risk your crop, and farm income, selling it as I am doing???

Selling corn is the only cheque I get for a yrs labour

Would you like to be a farmer???

If so go to the web site " Farming horses with Jim" for a lesson on farming with minimum start up cost and low cost farming on a shoe string, while supporting a family of four

 I would not farm with horses but Jim does and he makes it work, even if his mechanical skills seem to be lacking a bit His skill set is knowing horses, an art being lost Sadly we might need Jim's knowledge some day

 I question some of his methods and results, but if it works for Jim, then he must make a living with horses No off farm income that I can see, so thumbs up to Jim

I have no monetary connection with Jim I Just find his web site interesting for those who want to farm with a minimum bank account

By wglassfo - Aug. 25, 2022, 10:52 a.m.
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I said in a previous post I was not selling any NC corn as I thought the price would go higher than 8 dollars 94 cents

Sorry my lap top will not do a decimal

Well: as of today my average price is now 9 dollars plus CAD for an average of June/July/ Aug 23 delivery

I might be sorry for not selling some corn, but that is the risk we live with every day

By wglassfo - Aug. 25, 2022, 11:20 a.m.
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So I am told the number of food insecure people has risen quite a lot since pre covid

400 million plus vs 100 million plus

Some think the large grain trading Co's should pay a wind fall tax on excess profits

Should I pay a wind fall tax

Am I wrong for not selling food when so many need food

I am part of the reason your food bill is higher

And I say tough bananas

Did you pay me when my corn was 3 dollars a bu and barely covered COP and in some farms did not cover COP My hog sales were also below COP

I was sold out by my banker as I could not pay my COP bills

Nobody came to my rescue and helped pay my bills

So now it is my turn and you can help my COP at the food store

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2022, 12:27 p.m.
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#Pftour22 finds similar #corn yields as recent years in northwest Iowa, but the average tour yields were down 10% from last year in both west central and southwest Iowa.



#Pftour22 pod counts in northwest Iowa suggest similar potential for #soybeans as last year, but west central is looking a little better. Southwest Iowa pod counts were not as strong.




Illinois #corn yields from #pftour22 average 190.71 bu/acre, down 3% from last year's tour. Pod counts on #soybeans were 2% lower. Both corn and soy numbers were the tour's 3rd highest in the last 6 years ('17-'22).

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2022, 12:30 p.m.
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Not usually what happens during #pftour22, but the results are perhaps raising more uncertainty about U.S. crop prospects than expected.....

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2022, 11:18 p.m.
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Iowa #corn yield comes in at 183.81 bu/acre, down 3.6% from last year's tour but even with the 3yr avg. Pod counts for #soybeans are also down 3.6% on the year but a little better than the recent avg. #pftour22



By mikempt - Aug. 26, 2022, 11:35 a.m.
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By mikempt - Aug. 26, 2022, 11:36 a.m.
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Lancaster Amish Corn

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2022, 11:38 a.m.
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Thanks Mike!

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2022, 4:51 p.m.
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Pro Farmer pegs U.S. #corn yield at 168.1 bu/acre and #soybeans at 51.7 bu/acre. USDA was 175.4 and 51.9 earlier this month.  Pro Farmer puts the corn crop at 13.759 bln bu and soy at 4.535 bln bu.


Pro Farmer pegs #corn yields in Nebraska and South Dakota well below USDA's estimates - Indiana and Ohio a decent bit below as well. Pro Farmer doesn't see Iowa or Illinois breaking 200 bu/acre.


By metmike - Aug. 29, 2022, 5:37 p.m.
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metmike: I copy this ladies great stuff here all the time(for years) and have never communicated with her personally but she seems like a wonderful person and we're very grateful to her for sharing so much enlightening information and herself with the world...........that get's passed on and amplified by the power of the internet, including  places like this.

Thanks Karen!


One more very important Crop Tour memory I found... August 18, 2013 - where it all began! Was on my way to Tour and was told I should download this Twitter thing. 9 years on, this community remains a big part of my life. Seriously, I appreciate every one of you - thank you! 
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