KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, August 31, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 270.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 202.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 609.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. August Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 52.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 421.672M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.282M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 215.647M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.027M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.594M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.662M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.339M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.882M)
3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Thursday, September 1, 2022
7:30 AM ET. August Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -21%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 243K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1415000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (previous (previous -7.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +12.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 475.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 5203.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 409.6K)
9:45 AM ET. August US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. July Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -1.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.8)
Prices Idx (previous 60.0)
Employment Idx (previous 49.9)
Inventories (previous 57.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 48.0)
Production Idx (previous 53.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2579B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +60B)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 51.1)
12:00 AM ET. August Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:00 PM ET. August Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, September 2, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +528K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.27)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.15)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.47%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.22%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +57K)
Private Payroll (previous +471K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.1%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the July 26th low crossing at 12,072.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,120.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,220.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 13,740.75. First support is the July 26th low crossing at 12,072.00. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25.
The September S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the July 26th low crossing at 3913.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4167.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4217.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4327.50. First support is the July 26th low crossing at 3913.25. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at 3913.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the June 28th low crossing at 134-08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 139-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139-20. Second resistance is the August 10-day moving average crossing at 144-02. First support is the June 28th low crossing at 134-08. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the June 28th low crossing at 116.110 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.233 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.233. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 120.220. First support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110. Second support is the June 14st low crossing at 117.075.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was lower overnight following Tuesday's huge key reversal down. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the July 29th high crossing at $99.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $97.66. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $99.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $84.81. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $79.83.
October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the August 25th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5799 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.2595 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $4.0392. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.2595. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5799. Second support is the August 15th low crossing at $3.3491.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's downside breakout of August's trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 11th high crossing at $2.8350 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.8350. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.9628. First support is the overnight low crossing at $2.4289. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446.
October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.862 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the August 8th low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 9.987. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.862. Second support is August's low crossing at 7.536.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.614 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $109.445. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.249. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.614.
The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02319 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02319. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.03965. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $0.99160. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2027 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2027. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 1.2286. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1624. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 1.01650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04615 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04615. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07010. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.02240. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.01650.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 75.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.35. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $78.55. First support is the overnight low crossing at $76.18. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, long-term support crossing at 0.070000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073861 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073861. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at 0.076115. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.072000. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.070000.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the August 10th high crossing at 1824.60. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $1696.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1777.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1777.60. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1721.60. Second support is July's low crossing at $1727.00.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020 rally crossing at $16.778 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.688 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.688. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $20.870. First support is the overnight low crossing at 17.800. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020 rally crossing at $16.778.
December copper was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5521 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0459. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5521. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 3.4280.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low, Overnight weaknesssets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.52 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.35.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $8.63 3/4 would mark an upside breakout of the July-August trading range. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $8.63 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.54. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2 would mark an upside breakout of the July-August trading range. If December renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2 the next downside target.First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.30 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high that appears to have marked a double top with the July 29th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the August 16th low crossing at $13.76 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off the August 3rd low, the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $14.84 1/2. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $14.89. First support is the August 16th low crossing at $13.76. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at $13.56. Third support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the February 22nd high crossing at $4.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $4.36 60. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $4.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $404.30.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.86. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks very much tallpine!