KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 7, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 260.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 199.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 562.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.8%)
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -79.61B)
Exports (USD) (previous 260.80B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
Imports (USD) (previous 340.41B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.2%)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Thursday, September 8, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 232K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1438000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +26K)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2640B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +61B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 418.346M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.326M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 214.475M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.172M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.706M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.112M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.073M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.734M)
3:00 PM ET. July Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +40.1B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 9, 2022
8:30 PM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
10:00 PM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 PM ET. July Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its recent losses but remains below the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 12,156.81. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,977.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,637.73. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,977.61. First support is the overnight low crossing at 11,996.50.. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16.
The December S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4141.14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4039.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4141.14. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3919.94. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 130-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135-05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-09. First support is the overnight low crossing at 132-02. Second support is June's low crossing at 130-27.
December T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 115.067 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.197 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.253. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.277. First support is the overnight low crossing at 115.135. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 115.067.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $84.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.92 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $97.66. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $99.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $84.81. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $79.83.
October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4433 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7385 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $4.0392. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.2595. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4433. Second support is the August 15th low crossing at $3.3491.
October unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength today that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7743 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6424. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7743. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.3501. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446.
October Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.922 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 9.394 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9.394. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 9.987. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.922. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 7.536.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight trading as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.177 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $110.685. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.216. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.177.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01786 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01786. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.03965. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $0.98710. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.1400 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1826 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1826. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1964. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1418. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.1400.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04042 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04042. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07010. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.01405. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 75.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 25th high crossing at 77.53. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $78.55. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $75.68. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073543 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073543. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at 0.076115. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.070550. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $1696.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1765.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1765.30. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1824.60. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1699.10. Second support is July's low crossing at $1696.10.
December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.408 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020 rally crossing at $16.778 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.408. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $20.870. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 17.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020 rally crossing at $16.778.
December copper was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1355 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6003 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6003. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it renews the rally off July's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.21 1/2.
December wheat was sharply higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $8.63 3/4 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $8.63 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.54. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was sharply higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range. If December renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.30 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off the August 24th high, the August 16th low crossing at $13.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.25 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.25 3/4. Second resistance is the August 24th high crossing at $14.84 1/2. First support is the August 16th low crossing at $13.76. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at $13.56.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $405.80 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $419.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $436.60. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $439.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $405.80. Second support is the August 16th low crossing at $395.60.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.77 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.77. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks much tallpine!
2 week rains from the just out 12z GFS Ensemble.
Remnants of Kay in S.California
All the weather: