USDA says its acreage data is sufficiently complete to review planted and harvested area for corn, soybeans and other crops in its September report. This also happened last year. Report is due next Monday.
metmike: Extremely bullish beans. Modestly bullish corn(from acreage drop).
Dry weather in August hurts beans the most but it was also a dry Summer.
Beans being up double digits BEFORE the release suggests the market was anticipating this. Corn was flat to a tad lower before the report.
USDA's U.S. #corn yield comes in at 172.5 bu/acre, a historically large drop vs its Aug estimate. Nebraska falls to 176 and Iowa 200. The only major state that increased is Illinois (now 204), and the only one maintaining record expectations is Wisconsin.
U.S. #corn harvested acres drops by 1M acres from August, falling below the trade range of guesses. There were some increases in top states, but those did not outweigh larger declines across many smaller producers. Planted acres = 88.6M (was 89.8 in Aug).
USDA's yield forecast for U.S. #soybeans surprised to the low side and included a drop in yields in most states, especially in the Plains (Kansas, Dakotas, Nebraska). Iowa slightly improved. A national yield of 50.5 bu/acre would be 2nd lowest of latest 5 years.
Harvested area for U.S. #soybeans fell toward the low end of the trade range. The overall 580k drop was driven by mid-south & eastern states, along with a 900k acre combined reduction across IL-IA-SD. Planted acres = 87.5M (was 88 in Aug).
No surprise that USDA left major South American crop projections unchanged across the board.
You don't tend to observe strong bean crops and bad corn crops in the same year (again, unless something unusual happens). I was looking for reasons 2022 could be the year and I didn't find any good ones so far. But my mind is always open....
I don't like the good bean/notably bad corn yield combo without something wild having happened (derecho, etc). The corn troubles became apparent, but beans are hard to predict early. So my bias was to adjust bean expectations more than corn. Just my feeling. Nothing’s final yet.
The losing category was the winning one today: USDA's yield for U.S. #soybeans fell below the range of analyst guesses. I had a feeling this could be the most likely outcome, if any. Read the next tweet to find out why.
POLL: Choose your yield surprise If U.S. corn/soy yield lands outside the trade range of guesses in USDA's report Monday, which do you think is MOST likely?
FYI: trade averages (range; Aug #):
#Corn 172.5 bu/acre (170.6-174.9; 175.4)
#Soybeans 51.5 bu/acre (50.7-52.0; 51.9)