@kannbwx

Analysts are looking for USDA's U.S. #corn yield to come in 2.9 bu lower than last month, and #soybeans are seen losing 0.4 bu. The ranges of yield guesses are historically narrow for this report - as always, that raises the risk for surprise. Report is due Monday.

@kannbwx

Conab reduces #Brazil's 2021/22 #corn harvest on a smaller second harvest; exports are trimmed. Output and exports of #soybeans rose from last month but remain well below last year. Conab will release 2022/23 estimates in October.

@kannbwx

USDA says its acreage data is sufficiently complete to review planted and harvested area for corn, soybeans and other crops in its September report. This also happened last year. Report is due next Monday.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn yield comes in as expected, #soybeans fall below the range of trade guesses.

@kannbwx·

2m

Yield for U.S. #soybeans falls below the range of trade estimates, harvested area comes in at the low end (reduction of 580k acres). #Corn yield lands on the trade average but harv area is below the trade range, down nearly 1M acres.

metmike: Extremely bullish beans. Modestly bullish corn(from acreage drop). 

Dry weather in August hurts beans the most but it was also a dry Summer.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88707/#88748

Beans being up double digits BEFORE the release suggests the market was anticipating this. Corn was flat to a tad lower before the report.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn ending stocks come in as expected (sharply lower than last month), but #soybeans fell well below predictions as yield stuns to the low side. Exports of both new-crop corn and soy were reduced. No changes to #wheat.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn ending stocks come in as expected (sharply lower than last month), but #soybeans fell well below predictions as yield stuns to the low side. Exports of both new-crop corn and soy were reduced. No changes to #wheat.

@kannbwx

USDA's U.S. #corn yield comes in at 172.5 bu/acre, a historically large drop vs its Aug estimate. Nebraska falls to 176 and Iowa 200. The only major state that increased is Illinois (now 204), and the only one maintaining record expectations is Wisconsin.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn harvested acres drops by 1M acres from August, falling below the trade range of guesses. There were some increases in top states, but those did not outweigh larger declines across many smaller producers. Planted acres = 88.6M (was 89.8 in Aug).

@kannbwx

USDA's yield forecast for U.S. #soybeans surprised to the low side and included a drop in yields in most states, especially in the Plains (Kansas, Dakotas, Nebraska). Iowa slightly improved. A national yield of 50.5 bu/acre would be 2nd lowest of latest 5 years.

@kannbwx

Harvested area for U.S. #soybeans fell toward the low end of the trade range. The overall 580k drop was driven by mid-south & eastern states, along with a 900k acre combined reduction across IL-IA-SD. Planted acres = 87.5M (was 88 in Aug).

@kannbwx

22/23 world stocks down from Aug, #corn/#soybeans on smaller US crops. China soy imp down 1 mmt to 97. Argy exp up just 400kt#Russia #wheat crop +3mmt to 91, #Ukraine +1mmt to 20.5. UA wht exp unch @ 11 mmt, RU unch @ 42UA corn crop +1.5M to 31.5, exp +0.5M to 13

@kannbwx

No surprise that USDA left major South American crop projections unchanged across the board.

@kannbwx

USDA's #corn ear counts were below last year but similar to Sept 2020. Pod counts for #soybeans were notably below the last 2 years but a bit better than in Sept 2019.

@kannbwx

USDA pegs 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks for #soybeans at 200 mln bu, the year's lowest outlook yet. That trims stocks-to-use to 4.5%, a nine-year low if realized.

@kannbwx

For #corn, 22/23 U.S. ending stocks of 1.219 bln bu would be a 10-year low. Stocks-to-use of 8.5% would be the second-lowest since 2012/13 after 8.3% in 2020/21.

@kannbwx

Sep 12

You don't tend to observe strong bean crops and bad corn crops in the same year (again, unless something unusual happens). I was looking for reasons 2022 could be the year and I didn't find any good ones so far. But my mind is always open....

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

@kannbwx

Sep 12

I don't like the good bean/notably bad corn yield combo without something wild having happened (derecho, etc). The corn troubles became apparent, but beans are hard to predict early. So my bias was to adjust bean expectations more than corn. Just my feeling. Nothing’s final yet.

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@kannbwx

Sep 12

The losing category was the winning one today: USDA's yield for U.S. #soybeans fell below the range of analyst guesses. I had a feeling this could be the most likely outcome, if any. Read the next tweet to find out why.

Quote Tweet

Karen Braun

@kannbwx

 · Sep 9

POLL: Choose your yield surprise If U.S. corn/soy yield lands outside the trade range of guesses in USDA's report Monday, which do you think is MOST likely? 

FYI: trade averages (range; Aug #):

#Corn 172.5 bu/acre (170.6-174.9; 175.4)

#Soybeans 51.5 bu/acre (50.7-52.0; 51.9)

@kannbwx

USDA's Sept. crop estimate for U.S. #soybeans is 262 mln bu or 5.6% below the initial May estimate. That is the biggest reduction *of immediate consequence* to the market since 2013. The 2019 area loss was slow to rouse bulls, but its consequences are still being felt today.

@kannbwx

3h

#Canada's 2022 crop production rebounded sharply from last year's drought disaster, though output for most major crops was not stronger than in 2020. Analysts had estimated all #wheat at 34.5 mmt and #canola at 19.9 mmt.

@kannbwx

2h

Farmers in #Argentina had sold 15% of their #soybeans in the 7 days since the govt implemented FX incentives to boost sales, which have been very slow this year. As of last Wed, total 21/22 sales had reached 57% compared with 64% a year earlier.