10% of the crop was planted as of last Monday's report. This is 3% ahead of the 5 year average.
There are some dynamics related to fertilizer cost, fuel and market price as well as other things but let's focus on weather. A pretty big part of the HRW belt has drought, some of it is severe.
Drought monitor below:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
No major rain relief on the way:
The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Heat will dry the soils out even more:
Highs for days 3-7:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml
Lows days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
It's still early and rains in October can fix this but no rains in October will start lowering crop potential........and October begins in less than 2 weeks!
This has the making of a potential strong "weather market" if we go another month without much rain in the HRW belt, especially #1 producer, KS. However, news out of Ukraine can suddenly trump everything else and cause the market to go 30c+ in the opposite price direction of the weather's influence in 1 trading session(or in the same direction).
Crop condition/progress and more:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88948/
Wheat is up +43c but the Chicago wheat SRW is leading, so it's probably not the HRW drought which is driving this.
Yesterday, wheat was down almost this much!
In this volatile, unpredictable trading environment it makes trading based on fundamentals/weather more like gambling sometimes!
Wheat that was sharply lower on Monday(rains coming to a big part of KS?), almost hit limit up for SRW on Tuesday.
News about Russia annexing parts of Ukraine-Tuesday.
Here's what those mid week (Wed/Thu) rains looked like. Much of KS got .5 inches. Even a few areas that got wonderful 2 inches.
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
While this was extremely welcome, there are still huge rainfall deficits and low soil moisture for the HRW crop:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/#88929
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
The rain is over for a very long time though.
Temps in week 2 will heat up and increase evaporation rates.
The low skill outlook for weeks 3-4 continues the very warm/dry weather.
A dry September has helped drought spread across the central USA in recent weeks. This week, drought covers 75.15% of the country, the highest reading since 2012, but nearly identical to the 75.13% from this past March. Forecasts for the central USA remain dry for the next 2 wks.
+++++++++
Here's precipitation anomalies for Sept. with the month nearly complete. Easy to see where the extra dry areas worsened conditions on the drought monitor (e.g. Dakotas, Minn, Iowa, Missouri, etc).
+++++++++++
Crop condition. Wheat planting moving along quickly but the drought will adversely effect germination and especially development and establishment before the Winter wheat goes dormant in November in the Plains states.
in our area, they do not plant winter wheat. they plant spring wheat. and they plant in january.
soil moisture is not important, since they irrigate.
the big factor here is whether you have water. in our area there is water. but up around casa grande, their water from the CAP is being greatly reduced.
many farmers rotate, wheat, cotton, wheat, cotton. occasionally they may switch to alfalfa. or finally to housing development.
Thanks bear............who lives near Tucson AZ, the southwest part of the state.
You just taught me something. I had no idea that AZ grew Spring wheat......but there you are on the 2nd map!
Cotton for sure but never wheat.
Winter wheat would be impossible of course because it needs enough cold weather for several months to go dormant after being planted, germinating and getting established.
The cotton crop always seems to be in very good condition in AZ, obviously from irrigation but this year there's been robust monsoon rains pitching in.
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/us_cropprod.aspx
Speaking of the water cap out there:
Extremely robust Summer Monsoon/Lake Mead
21 responses |
Started by metmike - Aug. 27, 2022, 5:59 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88409/
Heres the latest rainfall total map for the last month vs average. Amazing that this has been one of the wetter places in the country(before Ian).
Rain chances are increasing for the S.Plains.
See maps above or at the link below.
Most maps are updated on a regular basis.
Drought in the Plains is becoming bullish for HRW/KE.
Rains in TX will help a bit, dry everywhere else, possibly thru the rest of October.
Drought in Argentina too. This is being caused by the La Nina(cool water in the E/C Tropical Pacific) the complete opposite of what global warming/climate change would cause(that stalled 6 years ago and is exactly what we need right now to end the droughts)
% Average of Rainfall the past 30 days
% Rain the past 60 days
% Rain of Average the past 90 days
%Average of Rain the past 180 days
%Average Rain the past 365 days
All the weather here: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Wheat shot up Monday from the bombing of Ukraine, with help from the drought in the Plains.
News of wheat coming out of Ukraine has wheat much lower today.
Wheat Plunges Overnight; Around 100 Ships From Ukraine Lined Up For Inspection
https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-october-11-2022
