Winter wheat planting weather
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Started by metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:31 p.m.

10% of the crop was planted as of last Monday's report. This is 3% ahead of the 5 year average.


https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/w6635b211/m613p5639/prog3822.pdf

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:33 p.m.
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There are some dynamics related to  fertilizer cost, fuel and market price as well as  other things but let's focus on weather. A pretty big part of the HRW belt has drought, some of it is severe.


Drought monitor below:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Drought Monitor for conus



By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:44 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:47 p.m.
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No major rain relief on the way:

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                                    


            https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

                

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:52 p.m.
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Heat will dry the soils out even more:

Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:54 p.m.
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It's still early and rains in October can fix this but no rains in October will start lowering crop potential........and October begins in less than 2 weeks!

This has the making of a potential strong  "weather market" if we go another month without much rain in the HRW belt, especially #1 producer,  KS.  However,  news out of Ukraine can suddenly trump everything else and cause the market to go 30c+ in the opposite price direction of the weather's influence in 1 trading session(or in the same direction). 

By metmike - Sept. 20, 2022, 11:56 a.m.
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Crop condition/progress and more:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88948/


Wheat is up +43c but the Chicago wheat SRW is leading, so it's probably not the HRW drought which is driving this.

Yesterday, wheat was down almost this much!

In this volatile, unpredictable trading environment it makes trading based on fundamentals/weather more like gambling sometimes!


By metmike - Sept. 24, 2022, 9:30 p.m.
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Wheat that was sharply lower on Monday(rains coming to a big part of KS?), almost hit limit up for SRW on Tuesday.

News about Russia annexing parts of Ukraine-Tuesday.

Here's what those mid week (Wed/Thu) rains looked like. Much of KS got .5 inches. Even a few areas that got wonderful 2 inches.

https://water.weather.gov/precip/


While this was extremely welcome, there are still huge rainfall deficits and low soil moisture for the HRW crop:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/#88929


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2022, 9:41 p.m.
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The rain is over for a very long time though.

Temps in week 2 will heat up and increase evaporation rates.

The low skill outlook for weeks 3-4 continues the very warm/dry weather.

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability


By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 12:20 p.m.
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@kannbwx

A dry September has helped drought spread across the central USA in recent weeks. This week, drought covers 75.15% of the country, the highest reading since 2012, but nearly identical to the 75.13% from this past March. Forecasts for the central USA remain dry for the next 2 wks.

Image

+++++++++

@kannbwx

Here's precipitation anomalies for Sept. with the month nearly complete. Easy to see where the extra dry areas worsened conditions on the drought monitor (e.g. Dakotas, Minn, Iowa, Missouri, etc).

Image

+++++++++++


By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 12:23 p.m.
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Crop condition. Wheat planting moving along quickly but the drought will adversely effect germination and especially development and establishment before the Winter wheat goes dormant in November  in the Plains states.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89205/

By bear - Sept. 30, 2022, 4:06 p.m.
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in our area, they do not plant winter wheat.  they plant spring wheat.  and they plant in january.  

soil moisture is not important, since they irrigate.  

the big factor here is whether you have water.  in our area there is water.  but up around casa grande, their water from the CAP is being greatly reduced.  

many farmers rotate, wheat, cotton, wheat, cotton.  occasionally they may switch to alfalfa.  or finally to housing development.  

By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 7:23 p.m.
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Thanks bear............who lives near Tucson AZ, the southwest part of the state.

You just taught me something. I had no idea that AZ grew Spring wheat......but there you are on the 2nd map!

Cotton for sure but never wheat.

Winter wheat would be impossible of course because it needs enough cold weather for several months to go dormant after being planted, germinating and getting established.

The cotton crop always seems to be in very good condition in AZ, obviously from irrigation but this year there's been robust monsoon rains pitching in.

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/df65wh90c/cj82mh29r/prog4022.pdf


https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/us_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Winter_Wheat.png


https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Spring_Wheat.pnghttps://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Cotton.png

By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 7:28 p.m.
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Speaking of the water cap out there:

                Extremely robust Summer Monsoon/Lake Mead            

                            21 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Aug. 27, 2022, 5:59 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88409/


Heres the latest rainfall total map for the last month vs average. Amazing that this has been one of the wetter places in the country(before Ian).