KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 255)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 198.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 532.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.2%)
10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 4.68M; previous 4.81M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -5.9%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 403800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +10.8%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 429.633M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.442M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 213.04M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.768M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 116.02M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.219M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.313M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.579M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 3.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 3.8%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 3.4%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12_
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.75)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,726.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,726.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32,211.65. First support is today's low crossing at 30,465.91. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18.
The December NASDAQ 100 close lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,418.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's crossing at 12,987.00. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First support is is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.70. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4175.00. First support is today's low crossing at 3843.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16.
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December T-bonds closed down 1-00-pts. at 129-30.
December T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131-29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-24. First support is today's low crossing at 129-06. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
December T-notes closed down 150-pts. at 113.285.
December T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 111.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.013 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.013. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.016. First support is today's low crossing at 113.205. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 111.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.54. First support is the September 8th lowcrossing at $81.20. Second support is the February 18th lowcrossing at $79.83.
November heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4563 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.7293 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3743. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4563. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.0925. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.7293.
November unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4475 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4475. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5687. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.1346.
November Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.646 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.292. Second resistance is the August 29th high crossing at 9.726. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.755. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.211.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.434 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 7th high crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistancecrossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.434. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.
The December Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01872 is needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01872. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.04650. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $0.99350. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound posted a new low close for the year on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1340 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1889. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1374. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1340.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-week's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04154 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04154. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.02210.
The December Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Tuesday to extend this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.18. First support is today's low crossing at 74.78. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071626 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.73480. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1749.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1749.40. Second resistance August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1661.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.
December silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last-week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August high crossing at 21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.802 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.802. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at 17.320.
December copper closed slightly lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0590. First support the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.13 3/4-cent at $6.92.
December corn closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.73 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.73 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.33 1/4.
December wheat closed up $0.63 1/4-cents at $8.93 3/4.
December wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday and closed above the upper boundary of the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.17 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is the September 1st low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.53 1/4-cents at $9.63.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.81 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.64 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is September's low crossing at $8.65. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.41-cents at $9.59 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range and would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the September 7th low crossing at $8.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at $8.80. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Third support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.17 1/2-cents at $14.78 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.37 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.37 3/4. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal closed up $10.10 at $439.40.
December soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday and posted a new high for the year as it renewed the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $421.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $442.70. Second resistance is long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $421.60. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.90.
December soybean oil closed up 75-pts. at 65.91.
December soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.38 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is September's low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.26 at $96.23.
October hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $101.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.45. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $101.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.99. Second support is September's low crossing at $89.12.
December cattle closed up $0.18 at $151.08.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, April's high crossing at $152.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $149.37 would confirm that a double top with August's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $152.23. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $152.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $149.37.
October Feeder cattle closed down $2.28 at $180.03.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July low crossing at $176.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $187.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $190.20. First support is July's low crossing at $176.25. Second support is the June 13th low crossing at $173.60.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Tuesday following yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the August 19th low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.78. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $24.30. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 20.28.
December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renewed the decline off August's high, the July 14th low crossing at 22.80 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 30h high crossing at 18.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this summer's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 17.11 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 91.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.44 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Wheat that was sharply lower on Monday, almost hit limit up for SRW today.
News about Russia annexing parts of Ukraine.
Dang, so far this month, the West had been telling us the complete opposite........that Ukraine was winning back parts of their country occupied by Russia.