KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 23, 2022
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 51.2; previous 51.3)
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 45.3; previous 44.1)
Monday, September 26, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.27)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.09)
10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -12.9)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 1.2)
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +10.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +10.5%)
9:00 AM ET. July U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +17.4%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18%)
10:00 AM ET. September Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -8)
Shipments Idx (previous -8)
10:00 AM ET. September Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 103.2)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 145.4)
10:00 AM ET. August New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 511K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -12.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 10.9)
1:00 PM ET. August Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 11,135.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,191.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,973.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,191.54. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,135.00.
The December S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 3657.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3950.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3894.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3950.45. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3744.72. Second support is June's low crossing at 3657.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-18. First support is the overnight low crossing at 127-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.113 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.071. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.113. First support is the overnight low crossing at 112.050. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.16. First support is February 18th low crossing at $79.31. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4470 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at $2.9170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4470. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $3.6996. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.0925. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 2.9170.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5536 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5536. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.598. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.430 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.430. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.292. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.598.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.490 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $112.090. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.490. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.643.
The December Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01708 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01708. Second resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the overnight low crossing at $0.97960. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was sharply lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.1000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1519 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1519. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 1.1759. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1040. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.1000.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.02210 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04873 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04873. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.06325. First support is September's low crossing at 1.02210. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.01300.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.80. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073294. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it renews this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1745.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1708.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1745.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1648.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.840 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.840. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5206 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support is the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as weekly exports were once again disappointing. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.13 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $9.20 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average $9.45 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.20 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the September 7th low crossing at $8.80. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.38 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.38 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average $14.15 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $443.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.90.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks very much tallpine!
Next weeks Hurricane Hermine forecast shifting sharply to the right/east on the GFS has cotton near limit down early this morning!