Small options traders are opening put trades at near record levels of late. Only time in the last 10 years when it was more skewed was in March/April of 2020.
Hard to buy when the Fed is tightening so much. I suspect they are trying to regain credibility after the "transitory" error. They say don't fight the Fed but there is a lot of bearishness out there and more economists are howling about the Fed doing too much and will break the economy. (Not our libertarian poster :-) ). Buying into the Autumn of midterms is as good as any seasonal I've seen.
Bought some stocks today. I could be a month early and get egg on my face but I'm happy to buy some more if it is a debacle. If Putin goes nuclear all bets are off.
I totally mean what I am about to say. S&P target is 1,450.
Traders are wrong at the top and bottom but during a powerful move they can be correct in the middle.
Sell what ever you bought. small loss better then getting crushed.
So how is THIS (below) explained? Both are respectable beats considering what appears as a negative attitude in the general public!? These are from yesterday. And they are a month lagging-so is the "lag" the explanation?
John - I have edited my original rhetoric.
HIGHDurable Goods Orders MoM (AUG)
HIGHCB Consumer Confidence (SEP)
Not sure I understand your question John. To be honest, I've never paid much attention to consumer confidence. I'm more interested in consumer spending. But as a trader/investor I'm focusing here on contrary indicators of small speculators. Based on today's big rally, the contrarian indicator mentioned in my first post seems to have been a good one.
Nothing of much importance-just surprised that confidence beat when "things" seem so pessimistic.