Stock Mkt Sentiment
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Started by joj - Sept. 27, 2022, 9:52 p.m.

Small options traders are opening put trades at near record levels of late.  Only time in the last 10 years when it was more skewed was in March/April of 2020.

Hard to buy when the Fed is tightening so much.  I suspect they are trying to regain credibility after the "transitory" error.  They say don't fight the Fed but there is a lot of bearishness out there and more economists are howling about the Fed doing too much and will break the economy.  (Not our libertarian poster :-)   ).  Buying into the Autumn  of midterms is as good as any seasonal I've seen.  

Bought some stocks today.  I could be a month early and get egg on my face but I'm happy to buy some more if it is a debacle.  If Putin goes nuclear all bets are off.

By Richard - Sept. 27, 2022, 10:12 p.m.
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I totally mean what I am about to say. S&P target is 1,450.

Traders are wrong at the top and bottom but during a powerful move they can be correct in the middle.

Sell what ever you bought. small loss better then getting crushed.

By 7475 - Sept. 28, 2022, 8:03 a.m.
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So how is THIS (below) explained? Both are respectable beats considering what appears as a negative attitude in the general public!? These are from yesterday. And they are a month lagging-so is the "lag" the explanation?

John   - I have edited my original rhetoric.

HIGHDurable Goods Orders MoM (AUG)

HIGHCB Consumer Confidence (SEP)

By joj - Sept. 28, 2022, 8:12 p.m.
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Not sure I understand your question John.  To be honest, I've never paid much attention to consumer confidence.  I'm more interested in consumer spending.  But as a trader/investor I'm focusing here on contrary indicators of small speculators.  Based on today's big rally, the contrarian indicator mentioned in my first post seems to have been a good one.

By 7475 - Sept. 28, 2022, 9:44 p.m.
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 Nothing of much importance-just surprised that confidence beat when "things" seem so pessimistic.

By joj - Sept. 28, 2022, 11:23 p.m.
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People have jobs so I guess consumer confidence should hold up.

But interest rates are rising so investors are understandably pessimistic.

....just a guess.