KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, November 3, 2022
7:30 AM ET. October Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +46%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous -4.6%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +3.6%; previous +10.8%)
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -72.0B; previous -67.40B)
Exports (USD) (previous 258.92B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Imports (USD) (previous 326.32B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 222K; previous 217K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1438000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +55K)
9:45 AM ET. October US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 46.6; previous 49.3)
10:00 AM ET. October ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 55.5; previous 56.7)
Business Activity Idx (previous 59.1)
Prices Idx (previous 68.7)
Employment Idx (previous 53.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.6)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3394B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +52B)
12:00 PM ET. October Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, November 4, 2022
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +225K; previous +263K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.46)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.98%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -25K)
Private Payroll (previous +288K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
11:00 AM ET. October Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's sharp decline following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75 low is the next downside target. Closes above the October 25th high crossing at 11,734.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,343.17. Second resistance is the September 25st high crossing at 11,734.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10,882.00. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3741.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off the October 13th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 3924.14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3741.56. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 3502.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28. Second resistance is the October 14th high crossing at 125-31. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06.
December T-notes was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.314 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 111.310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.314. First support is October's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 18th low, October's high crossing at $92.34 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $85.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $92.34. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is Monday's low crossing at $85.30. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30.
December heating oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435 would confirm that a double top was posted with October's high. If December resumes the rally off the October 21st low, August's high crossing at $3.8939 is the next upside target.First resistance is the October 10th high crossing at $3.8315. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $3.8939. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at $3.3997.
December unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5309 would confirm that top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.7065. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.4822. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4383.
December Henry natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 6.400 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the March 15th low crossing at 4.872 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.400. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.968 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at $107.450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 13thhigh crossing at $113.850. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 114.745. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $109.710. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $1.02650 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $0.97455. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750. Third support is September's low crossing at $0.95920.
The December British Pound was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1333 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.1923. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 1.1074. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937.
The December Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral bearish again signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1.01410 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02364. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.99045. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the October 27th high crossing at $74.15. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at $71.56. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.20 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the October 27th high crossing at $74.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.20. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069745 is the next upside target. If December resumes this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069745. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1685.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1685.50. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $1738.70. First support is October's low crossing at $1621.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the September 28th low crossing at $17.895 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248 is the next upside target. From a broader perspective, from September's low, December silver appears to have completed the right shoulder of a huge head-and-shoulders top. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $20.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248. First support is the September 28th low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight while extending the September-October trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, September's low crossing at 3.2430 is the next downside target. Closes above the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is the October 20th low crossing at 3.3030. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.2430.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 19th low crossing at $6.74 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $6.54. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the October 19th low crossing at $6.74. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's huge sell off, which was triggered by news that Russia will resume grain shipments out of the Black Sea. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.04. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.49 3/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's sharp decline, which was triggered by news that Russia will resume grain shipments out of the Black sea. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish with Wednesday's losses signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off last-Friday's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight following Wednesday's sharp decline that was triggered by bearish news out of Russia regarding the resumption of grain shipments out of the Black sea. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.47 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.63 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.47 1/2. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight due to spillover selling pressure from wheat and corn. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.01 3/4 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $14.57 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.01 3/4. Second support is the October 6th low crossing at $13.50.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $443.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $419.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.30.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.13. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is Monday's low crossing at 71.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.12.
Thanks tallpine!
Huge rains in drought areas coming up.
Colder temps for NG but how much cold and how far east?