Election Day
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Started by joj - Nov. 8, 2022, 9:33 a.m.

44 million people have already voted.  Republicans have been urged to vote on Election Day rather than via mail in ballots.  That way, when the polls close they will be ahead and can declare victory and if they lose they can be in blissful denial mode.

Since 1928 the party in power has lost an average of 28 seats in the house and 5 senate seats.  With inflation north of 8% and Biden's approval ratings in the low 40s, Democrats should get clobbered.

Impeachment of Biden begins in January.  And no more Supreme Court picks for Biden.  That power belongs to McConnell only.

I think I was called "brainwashed" in a previous thread for pointing out the clear and obvious erosion of our democracy.  But only in a clever and indirect way.  

By metmike - Nov. 8, 2022, 11:06 a.m.
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Thanks joj!

Some good points in there for sure.

Elections have consequences and if the other party wins, we don't like them.

I'm not for impeachment but the Biden impeachment in January comes right out of the democrats playbook. They had 3 impeachment procedures with Trump.

The first one never got anywhere.

The 2nd one worked in the House and was entirely political.

The 3rd one was extremely justified and republicans should have joined to make Trump ineligible to ever hold political office again. It's insane that he did what he did and somehow can run for president again. This really is crazy, if you want to make a case for a problem with the process.

On the brainwashed point, I just present objective, open minded facts interpreted by somebody that attacks both parties equally based on their flawed arguments. 

Here it is again.

You are welcome to disagree and tell me what's wrong. I will sincerely consider your points and dial them into my analysis and rethink based on knowing  you as an extraordinarily intelligent, often open minded, very  credible source that has a reputation for making wonderful points.

And also making points that repeat the democrats false narratives. 

When I overlook things or show bias(which happens), it's NOT because I have an affiliation with either party. 


By WxFollower - Nov. 8, 2022, 7:45 p.m.
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 Nobody, I mean nobody, beats John King of CNN as far as hard core objective analysis of the implications of votes already counted by county. He takes those and compares to past elections. Also, for states with both Senate and Governor races, he compares performance. Example: GA. He has shown that a decent number of Senator Warnock voters are not voting for Abrams for governor.

 Also, he's amazingly smooth and an amazing communicator! He's been this way for the better part of 20 years. I think Mike told me he also likes King. 

By joj - Nov. 8, 2022, 10:56 p.m.
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Early results are encouraging to this democracy supporter.

Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden's numbers.  In PA, for example, Fetterman outperforming Biden's 2020 number.

Markets not doing much....

By metmike - Nov. 8, 2022, 11:27 p.m.
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Amazing memory on John King Larry!

I was raving about him several times tonight to my wife as we watched the results earlier. 

He is in a league of his own in showing election data. 

On election night, it's always CNN and John King for me but he couldn't do it without the support of some extremely talented technical people behind the scenes that provide the data and graphics for him and his "magic wall".

Meet the team behind CNN’s famous ‘Magic Wall’



      CNN’s John King has become synonymous with the “Magic Wall,” a touchscreen display featuring a vast array of up-to-date voting data on election night. His incredibly fast-paced breakdown of that data and his breadth of knowledge across the political spectrum has gained the attention of many news organizations, fans on social media and even late-night hosts.  


      But behind the camera, there is an entire team of experts who create the technical magic that King and other correspondents showcase on live television

The Magic Wall team, from left to right: David Reisner, Lauren Holt, Billy Holbert, Pallavi Reddy, Caroline Tounget, John Murphy

The Magic Wall team, from left to right: David Reisner, Lauren Holt, Billy Holbert, Pallavi Reddy, Caroline Tounget, John Murphy

 Hat's off to CNN with their Magic Wall and election coverage! Everybody else looks like amateurs in comparison. 

By joj - Nov. 8, 2022, 11:35 p.m.
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MAGA candidates are losing.  Good.

I'll even say I'm ok with Kemp (R) winning the governor's seat in Georgia.  Because he defended democracy.  Good.

Young people are voting in greater numbers than average. 

Abortion seems to have been a factor of young voters.

Michigan 54-46 for abortion rights may have saved Governor Whitman's reelection.

By WxFollower - Nov. 8, 2022, 11:58 p.m.
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  Any problems I had with GOP Governor Kemp in 2020 being too aggressive in opening things back up during the pandemic became long forgotten once he stood up to the Big Lie. His standing up to the big bully was awesome to see and got me to strongly like and root for him. Of course, nobody is more awesome in that respect than the GA GOP Sec of State, Raffensperger.

By metmike - Nov. 9, 2022, 12:18 a.m.
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MAGA candidates are losing.  Good.


By metmike - Nov. 9, 2022, 1:03 a.m.
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Agree that things are looking pretty good for the blue tonight compared to expectations.

By metmike - Nov. 9, 2022, 2:06 a.m.
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Before the 2022 election:

How voters responded in the 2022 election

Leaving MAGA republicans baffled

But still looking forward to 2024

The opposition is elated

By WxFollower - Nov. 11, 2022, 2:42 p.m.
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 Betting odds are currently ~85% that the Dem will go ahead and win the NV Senate race as the last votes are counted. If so and assuming the Dems also win in AZ (over 90% chance), the GA runoff in December wouldn't matter as the Dems would already have 50 seats. Of course, I realize that there are two Dem senators who often vote with the GOP and this outcome would thus keep them the most powerful senators. Thus, I'd think they'd be rooting for 50-50 or 51 Ds/49 Rs.

update: Dems retain the Senate with wins in AZ and NV.

By WxFollower - Nov. 11, 2022, 11:36 p.m.
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 Not only are the Dems going to keep the senate, the betting line on them also keeping the House has increased markedly this evening from 7% to 20%.

By WxFollower - Nov. 12, 2022, 6:50 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 7:56 p.m.
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Who would have ever thought there would be such jubilation by dems (and never Trumpers) that they lost the house but not by as much as they were supposed to. 

By WxFollower - Nov. 12, 2022, 8:13 p.m.
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Hey Mike,

1. The Dems haven't lost the House yet. The projections continue to drop. The latest is a razor thin 219 (R) to 216 (D). Moreover, there is a margin of +/-4. That means the range for Dems is 212 to 220. If the Dems get 218-220, they have the majority!

2. Let's say the GOP hangs onto a razor thin majority of 3 seats, 219-216. That would mean that only 2 Rs would need to flip on any vote to give the Dems the majority on that vote. That, alone, makes the GOP much weaker than was predicted before Election Day.

3. So, between the Senate, which is now highly likely going to go to the Dems (50 or 51 seats) and the House's projected razor thin majority AT BEST, the Dems are looking to have a huge victory vs prior expectations!

Edit: 4. This is all about what ends up happening vs expectations. An analogy would be the NG EIA. The key to the kneejerk market reaction as you know is not whether a report is bearish, neutral, or bullish vs past years. It is how the report's number compares to the means of the survey guesses. The key is what is baked in. A very large Dem loss of seats in the House to give the GOP a significant majority and thus solid control was baked into expectations and that's not going to happen and thus the Dems' jubilation. I know you fully understand this.

By joj - Nov. 12, 2022, 9:08 p.m.
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"Who would have ever thought there would be such jubilation by dems (and never Trumpers) that they lost the house but not by as much as they were supposed to."

Really Mike?  You couldn't imagine the jubilation of Dems and never Trumpers by the exceeding expectations by historic measures?  Me thinks you are pretending.  

My recollection is that you were expecting a blowout based on your finger wagging about how the the Dems/Biden have no one to blame but themselves.  

Not only was everyone wrong, including you, me and bear's betting site, but also every pundit on both sides of the isle and on FOX and MSNBC.   

Of course the Dems are celebrating joyously!!!   I'm personally not so much celebrating as breathing a sigh of relief for our fragile democracy.

By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 10:17 p.m.
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I guess I wasn't very clear. Totally my fault. You took it to have the opposite of what I meant which is to agree with you but sort of chuckle and being amazed it happening. 

I  completely understand the reason compared to expectations and on a relative sense because. Like you said everybody, including me thought it was going to be a red wave the last several months.

Especially considering we have the worst administration in my life time that deserved to pay the price which usually occurs at election time when voters are very unhappy with it.

My point is that who would have thought that this would turn out the way that it did and democrats and never Trumpers having reason to celebrate. 

I think that many of my best trades were small losses because the last thing that I did, resulted in me avoiding a huge loss. 

Same frame of mind here. The last thing that happened was the one that counted and historically, who would have thought that we would be seeing it result in democrats and never Trumpers celebrating on these results compared to any previous election with the same results.

By 12345 - Nov. 13, 2022, 8:12 p.m.
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By 12345 - Nov. 13, 2022, 8:38 p.m.
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