KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, November 14, 2022
11:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -9.1)
Employment Idx (previous 7.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.7)
Prices Received (previous 22.9)
8:30 AM ET. October PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +7.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.6%)
11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report
4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
N/A U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission releases
2022 Annual Report to Congress
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,208.90 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 11,826.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 10,808.00. Second support is November's low crossing at 10,636.00.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3750.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the November 3rd low crossing at 3704.25. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's huge rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-14. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 129-12. First support is November's low crossing at 118-03. Second support is October's low crossing at 117-19.
December T-notes was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.210 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is November's low crossing at 109.105. Second support is October's low crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $88.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $93.74. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.43.Second support is October's low crossing at $81.30.
December heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4924 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off the October 21st low, June's high crossing at $4.0651 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4924. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4624 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $2.8172. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4624. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.938 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 7.221. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.971 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.971. Second resistance is the October 13thhigh crossing at $113.850. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $106.140. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $1.04650 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99496 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1.03915. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.00693. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99496.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.1858. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344. Second support is the November 4th low crossing at 1.1156.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01576 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.06820. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02303. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01576.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 20th crossing at $75.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.69 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.69. Second support is November's low crossing at $72.44.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's, the August 23rd high crossing at 1.07410 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068615 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.072525. Second resistance is the August 23rd high high crossing at 1.07410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068615. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1675.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1775.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1675.80. Second support is November's low crossing at $1618.30.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.932 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $22.160. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.814. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.932.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4875 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.9600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6544. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5403.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.52 1/4. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.39 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $7.95 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.29. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.
December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, the October 18th low crossing at $398.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $416.00 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $416.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $440.50. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 78.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.69.
Thanks much tallpine!