Crop/wheat conditions 11-14-22 +weather/drought
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Started by metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 5:36 p.m.

@kannbwx

U.S. harvest 2022 is near completion with #corn & #soybeans still ahead of normal pace. 81% of winter #wheat has emerged and although the conditions have improved slightly, they are still very low historically. Crop has a long way to go.

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Complete reports here:  

https://www.usda.gov/media/agency-reports

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 8:30 p.m.
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The Winter wheat crop is not dormant yet and  getting hurt this week from record cold.

This is why wheat was so strong on Monday.


Ag Weather Forum                                             Oncoming Cold Wave Threatens Low-Rated Wheat

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2022/11/11/oncoming-cold-wave-threatens-low-3


By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 8:56 p.m.
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Winter Damage(wheat)

https://www.sunflower.k-state.edu/agronomy/wheat/winter_damage.html

How well developed is the root system?

Good top growth of wheat doesn't necessarily indicate good root development. Poor root development is a concern where conditions have been dry. Where wheat plants have a good crown root system and two or more tillers, they will tolerate the cold better. If plants are poorly developed going into winter, with very few secondary roots and no tillers, they will be more susceptible to winterkill or desiccation, especially when soils remain dry. Poor development of secondary roots may not be readily apparent unless the plants are pulled up and examined. If plants are poorly developed, it may be due to dry soils, poor seed-to-soil contact, very low pH, insect damage, or other causes.

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https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/us_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Winter_Wheat.png

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/graphics/WW-PR-RGBChor.pdf


https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=T

Low temps night 1:



Low temps night 2:


Low temps night 3:


Low temps night 4:


Low temps night 5:


Low temps night 6:


By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 9:02 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/mtd_cen/month.pperc.png


November 8, 2022 Below

Drought worsening in some places!!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Drought Monitor for conus



AUGUST 16, 2022 BELOW

Drought Monitor for conus


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         Drought monitor previous years:

Image

                                    

The drought was not caused by climate change/global warming…..just the opposite.

its  the result of the current, extremely long lived  La Niña which is cold water anomalies in the tropical pacific. The opposite of a global warming pattern.
this is part of why global warming has paused the past 6 years

the best opportunity to end the drought will come from the slight, mostly beneficial warming resuming(with an El Nino, ideally) which caused the previous 3 decades of growing weather to be the best in the last 1,000 years.

add the beneficial CO2 during that time and growing conditions on the planet were the best since well before humans existed.

that’s why we’ve had massive global greening!

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

La Nina conditions:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html


Map of SST anomalies

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://water.weather.gov/precip/


% Average of Rainfall the past 30 days


% Rain the past 60 days


% Rain of Average the past 90 days


%Average of  Rain the past 180 days


%Average Rain the past 365 days

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 9:04 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 9:07 p.m.
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Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Nov. 14, 2022, 9:12 p.m.
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In addition, the dry weather has been causing the Mississippi River to experience very low levels but it's forecast to rise this week recent and falling precip.

Low Mississippi River levels to impact state and national economy

https://www.wlox.com/2022/11/02/low-mississippi-river-levels-impact-state-national-economy/


https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg

Mississippi River at Memphis