KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 199.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 162.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 373.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +1.2%; previous +0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. October Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.4%; previous -1.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -7.5%)
9:15 AM ET. October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 80.4%; previous 80.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. November NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 36; previous 38)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 440.8M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.9M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 205.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.9M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.5M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.267M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.786M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extended the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,357.38 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,547.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,472.06. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,357.38.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3806.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3883.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3852.35.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extended the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-04 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 128-06. First support is November's low crossing at 118-03. Second support is October's low crossing at 117-19.
December T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.281 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.281. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105. Third support is October's low crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline November's high, the October 18th low crossing at $81.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $90.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $93.74. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30. Second support is September's low crossing at $75.70.
December heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.6896 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4990 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4990. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.
December unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4706 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $2.6586 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.6586. Second resistance is November's highcrossing at $2.8172. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4706. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526.
December Henry natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.843 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 7.221. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.815 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $108.659. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.937. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $105.155. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99670 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.07137. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.01765. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.00634.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.1858. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344. Second support is the November 4th low crossing at 1.1156.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02213 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.07275. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03614. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02213.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.97.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's, the August 23rd high crossing at 1.074410 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068862 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.072925. Second resistance is the August 23rd high high crossing at 1.074410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069113. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1690.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1791.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1728.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1690.30.
December silver was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.466 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.289 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $22.380. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.298. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.289.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5873 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.9600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7224. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5873.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.51 1/4. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.37 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $7.95 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.29. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.22 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.22. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 18th low crossing at $398.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.50 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.50. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $440.50. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 78.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.38. Second support is the October 28th low crossing at 71.09.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $0.63 at $85.50.
December hogs closed higher on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $91.35 is the next upside target. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.36 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $89.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $91.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.36. Second support is the October 9th low crossing at $81.35.
December cattle closed down $0.35 at $151.23.
December cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.33 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.20. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.33. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.90.
January Feeder cattle closed down $2.53 at $176.93.
January Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, October's low crossing at $172.10 is the next downside target. If January renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $179.87. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $182.41. First support is today's low crossing at $176.33. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.64 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $18.34. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $20.98. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.04.
December cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the June 6thhigh crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the October 28th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, April's high crossing at 20.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 97.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.03 would signal that a top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!!