Analysts see a downward bias for #Argentina's #corn & #soybeans in Friday's USDA report but an upside one for #Brazil. There's no trade estimates for Argy #wheat, but that number should be watched Friday as USDA is at 15.5 mmt and many industry estimates are lower.
No major shifts seen at the world level, but here's some of the things I'll be watching:US corn/soy demandSAM corn/soy cropsChina demandArg/Aus wheat cropsBlack Sea grain crops/tradeUS soyoil use, incl. for biofuel
A large number of charts and graphs to show on the grains this weekend!
USDA made no changes to South American production of #corn & #soybeans despite drought already threatening #Argentina's season. Record crops for #Brazil still on track.
USDA reviewed EPA's recently proposed rule for renewable fuel volume targets and subsequently reduced U.S. soyoil used for biofuel in 2022/23 by 200M lbs (~2%). US soyoil exports were also cut based on historically low sales.
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Quick reaction to USDA Dec WASDE: Mostly as expected, cut to U.S. corn stocks on lower exports is fair. Interesting cut to Ukraine's corn crop, but some of last year's stocks are left over. They were unch but I would've supported at least a slight cut to Argy's yields from trend.
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USDA on Fri cut Ukraine's #corn crop to 27 mmt from 31.5 mmt last month but raised exports to 17.5 mmt from 15.5. That means last month USDA saw only 49% of the crop hitting the export market. A crop cut + rise in exports works bc of this (big crop + disrupted exports in 21/22):
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#Ukraine's #corn crop & exports are both seen down 35% from last year's record crop and what was supposed to be record exports. Before last year, Ukraine was exporting about 80% of its annual crop. In 2021/22 & now 2022/23, USDA expects about 65% of the crop will be exported
